Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[hb905]

gonna go to bed, everyone in southern north texas is saying its gonna go south and everyone in the metroplex or north is saying its gonna go north so im just confused!!

[utweather]

Main area in NM/AZ still going southeast on radar and satellite, looks like lightning east of Tucson, AZ a little bit ago. Looks like you north Texas guys are getting the send ahead stuff ahead of main snow producer.

[msstateguy83]

TRUST IN THE RUC

[Ntxw]

ahhh i dont know what to think anymore for us in central and southern texas...should we expect more, less, or the same amount of snow based on the 00z models and the current trends and satellite and radar?

Don't listen to us folks in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma, we're just pin and needling the radar\short term models for the immediate precip effecting our areas. Your part of the system is a different animal.

[msstateguy83]

holy look @ the latest 03z run of the ruc!

[msstateguy83]

its putting higher amts up into nw tx, sw ok.... atleast thru 6 hrs out its still running....

[iorange55]

I'm not looking at the radar really this time or worrying. I'm just going to enjoy the snow when it does fall because it might be the last till next winter.

I can't wait for the snow to start. Gotta set the alarm.

[Nederlander]

ahhh i dont know what to think anymore for us in central and southern texas...should we expect more, less, or the same amount of snow based on the 00z models and the current trends and satellite and radar?

You're sitting good in cs.. Lol no need to panic.. if anything, the snow coverage will be a larger area than initially thought but no majjor changes to the track.. Expect 2+ inches

Edit: utweather said it best.. The major snow producer isn't here yet.. You need to look at the CENTER of the low pressure system to see where this thing is headed.. Not the bands in the panhandle..

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

alright whew! so you think it will start to pick up in earnest here by noon?

[Extremeweatherguy]

holy look @ the latest 03z run of the ruc!

That's definitely an interesting run..especially for Oklahoma which was originally supposed to get off relatively untouched from this storm.

[Ntxw]

If that were to verify, a few places in southern Oklahoma might pick up a few inches.

[hb905]

where can i find the ruc run?

[Texas Snowman]

ahhh i dont know what to think anymore for us in central and southern texas...should we expect more, less, or the same amount of snow based on the 00z models and the current trends and satellite and radar?

LOL...don't throw out your snowstorm just yet.

Keep in mind that many of those opining tonight live in North Central Texas (DFW metro, Wichita Falls, and Denison for yours truly). What's going on is that we're just noting that the radar is showing more precip to the north than expected or than the models have previously shown. So far anyway...

Will the precip dive southeast as Nederlander has noted? Probably a good chance as the low moves into Texas.

But then again, models forecast the weather. Observations verify it.

And with radar trends and snow actually being reported in SW Oklahoma tonight, it seems that the storm may have a wider impact than some models have previously predicted.

That might get more of us North Texans into the game...

[gofrogs2]

What aobut fort worth based of the ruc.

[msstateguy83]

http://www.twisterdata.com its right on the front page as it comes up....

[southerngale]

Where's that popcorn munching smiley?

It's radar WOBBLE WATCHING time!!!!!

Save it as it isn't on Storm2k, but when we do another smiley update, I'll remember to get that one on there.

[gofrogs2]

Intreptret that for me.

[orangeblood]

Ruc not likely to verify IMO.. Initialization is wrong.. (too dry).. And that precip. Will dive southeast... Dfw will catch some of this as its plunges southeast but I really would like to stress that nobody should get hung up on any one thing right now.. everything we've seen for days now shows central Texas to get the brunt of this thing.. The upper low isn't even to TX yet... By morning, see how the precip is diving..

That RUC model you're referring too had almost every snow band that moved through the DFW area, during Snowmageddon and the Christmas Eve Event, simulated almost to perfection. I follow this model almost exclusively 12 hours prior to an event.

[msstateguy83]

RUC model is excellent in both winter wx and severe wx when your less then 12 hrs out from the event....

[Nederlander]

Where's that popcorn munching smiley?

It's radar WOBBLE WATCHING time!!!!!

Save it as it isn't on Storm2k, but when we do another smiley update, I'll remember to get that one on there.

Ill take extra butter on mine! Its going to be real close for us sg.. If I had to bet though.. Don't think we will see snow.. At least south of i-10.. You're north of it so you got a better shot then me but still wouldn't expect it..