Texas Winter 2017-2018

[jaguars_22]

When we wake up tomorrow there will be an outline of Texas's coastline and it wont be clouds...

[Snowman67]

Note that we have decided on 2 balloon launches today. First will be at 18Z, second near 03Z. They're launched from the University of Houston. Data will be sent to the local NWS office. I'll post it here, too. I'm interested in seeing how well the models are handling the temps aloft.

Awesome. Thanks for keeping us updated.

[Ralph's Weather]

Note that we have decided on 2 balloon launches today. First will be at 18Z, second near 03Z. They're launched from the University of Houston. Data will be sent to the local NWS office. I'll post it here, too. I'm interested in seeing how well the models are handling the temps aloft.

Awesome, that will be very informative.

[KatDaddy]

Lake Charles Morning AFD Update:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1008 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Update the grids through the night with the latest guidance.
Wintry precipitation chances have increased over the past 24 hours
and will be evaluating the latest guidance and make a
determination after coordination on any need to expand the winter
weather advisory.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Note that we have decided on 2 balloon launches today. First will be at 18Z, second near 03Z. They're launched from the University of Houston. Data will be sent to the local NWS office. I'll post it here, too. I'm interested in seeing how well the models are handling the temps aloft.

Awesome, that will be very informative.

Actually really pumped for this.

[Ntxw]

So after a run or two of 300+ hr blowtorches, GFS reverted back to more of the same pattern as now . This is why you need ensemble support truncated after 200 hours. We used to do this the other way with cold.



I'm usually for the front loaded Nina type winters, but I think it being so far east based, and tendency for high latitude blocking will probably mean something different this year. I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern repeats early Jan and early Feb in the cycle.

[KatDaddy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071707
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1107 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front was pushing into Southeast Texas from the north at
mid morning. Areas of light rain with an isolated mix of light
rain and sleet have been reported through the morning so far. With
warming temperatures, expect mostly light rain this afternoon.

The latest forecast soundings are showing better possibilities of
snow mixing with the rain tonight before the precipitation ends,
especially toward and at the coast. There are indications from the
forecast soundings that the precipitation could change over to
all light snow or snow flurries before the precipitation chances
end. The global models are showing best snow chances starting
late evening maybe from about Austin and Colorado counties south
to Matagorda County after midnight. Ground temperatures look too
warm for accumulations but some trace amounts could occur on
grassy areas or elevated areas.

All in all the best chances for rain mixed with snow or even just
all snow will be from late evening into the overnight hours. Most
likely areas to see snow will be along and west of a line from
Brenham to Freeport. Accumulating snowfall chances are very low.
Will point out that this expected scenario could change depending
upon how the situation evolves.

It is a bit ironic that my NWS career started in the lower
peninsula of Michigan dealing with winter time snow events. Now my
career is ending in Southeast Texas and we are dealing with a
winter time snow event. Add to that all of the storm events,
Skywarn talks, Southeast Texas snow events at least in 2004 and
2007, and etc. It has been a fun ride and I have been glad to have
helped serve you at the NWS Houston and Galveston areas the last
23 years.

[northjaxpro]

Is that the Greenland Blocking Pattern trying to get set up in that GFS long range? Well, if that can set up shop, the -NAO will be entrenched and a very cold Christmas across the Eastern CONUS could potentially be on tap. Still a long way out of course. Something to watch down the road....

[wxman57]

No signature on that AFD, KatDaddy. I wonder who is retiring?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So after a run or two of 300+ hr blowtorches, GFS reverted back to more of the same pattern as now . This is why you need ensemble support truncated after 200 hours. We used to do this the other way with cold.

http://i68.tinypic.com/2q07ozs.png

I'm usually for the front loaded Nina type winters, but I think it being so far east based, and tendency for high latitude blocking will probably mean something different this year. I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern repeats early Jan and early Feb in the cycle.

[Tireman4]

No signature on that AFD, KatDaddy. I wonder who is retiring?

Paul Lewis...
NWS Houston/Galveston-
Today we say goodbye to one of our very best forecasters! Paul has worked nearly every major flood, severe weather event, and hurricane since the mid 90s! We want to wish Paul a happy and healthy retirement!! I cannot post my photo here like I can at KHOU Weatherboard

[Ralph's Weather]

That looks pretty good for the Christmas time period around here. Just need to EPO to take a bit of a dive just beyond the forecast range on here with a near neutral PNA for a good Plains trough.

The month of December looks like it will be a cold one for the East, near normal for the Plains and warm for the west.

[jaguars_22]

Winter storm warning Corpus. Winter weather advisory Victoria. Here we go!!!

[Ntxw]

There were hurricane warnings in some of these areas a few months ago


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1144 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

...SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...

.Two winter weather events are expected across South Texas. The
first is currently ongoing across the northwest Brush Country
where light snow is leading to minor snow accumulations. The
second event is expected overnight tonight where a couple of
inches of snow will be possible by sunrise Friday across primarily
the southern Coastal Plains. Farther north and west, only minor
snow accumulations are expected tonight.

TXZ240>244-080145-
/O.NEW.KCRP.WS.W.0001.171208T0600Z-171208T1400Z/
Duval-Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-
Including the cities of Freer, Benavides, San Diego, Alice,
Orange Grove, Kingsville, Corpus Christi, Portland, Ingleside,
Aransas Pass, Sinton, and Mathis
1144 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Rain expected to mix with and eventually transition to
light to moderate snow overnight. Total accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with isolated higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Duval, Jim Wells, Kleberg, Nueces and San Patricio.
Lesser amounts closer to the coast.

* WHEN...Best chances of snow and associated impacts from
midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities will be significantly reduced
during periods of snow. Snow amounts may vary over short
distances.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means snowfall amounts of 1 inch
or greater are expected or occurring. This will make travel very
hazardous.

[Ntxw]

And for Brownsville you have wind chill advisories



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1209 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

...UNCOMFORTABLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED...

.STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER TO
HUMANS AND ANIMALS.

TXZ248>257-080300-
/O.CON.KBRO.WC.Y.0001.171208T0500Z-171208T1400Z/
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Including the cities of Zapata, Hebbronville, Falfurrias, Sarita,
Rio Grande City, Roma, McAllen, Edinburg, Pharr, Mission,
Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen, Port Mansfield,
Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights, and Laguna Vista
1209 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills
will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed
skin. Expect wind chills to range from 30 above zero to 25
above zero.

* WHERE...All of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

* WHEN...11 PM this evening to 8 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dress in layers of clothing for maximum
warmth. Provide warm shelter for outdoor domesticated animals
and livestock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

[EnnisTx]

Is the warning criteria different in South Texas than it is in North Texas?

Their calling for 1 to 2 inches of snow along the coast and it's a Winter Storm Warning. If we expect 1 to 3 inches it's normally an advisory.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Poor Portastorm. Maybe he needs to move a tad further south to insure he gets some winter weather.

[Ntxw]

Is the warning criteria different in South Texas than it is in North Texas?

Their calling for 1 to 2 inches of snow along the coast and it's a Winter Storm Warning. If we expect 1 to 3 inches it's normally an advisory.

The criteria is different for different areas. DFW's criteria is around 0F or lower wind chill. Winter storm warnings are usually for 4" of snow or more (ice notwithstanding). Further north of here our criteria is just advisories, for instance in New England.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Is the warning criteria different in South Texas than it is in North Texas?

Their calling for 1 to 2 inches of snow along the coast and it's a Winter Storm Warning. If we expect 1 to 3 inches it's normally an advisory.

In Austin I hear drizzle is a trigger.

[EnnisTx]

Is the warning criteria different in South Texas than it is in North Texas?

Their calling for 1 to 2 inches of snow along the coast and it's a Winter Storm Warning. If we expect 1 to 3 inches it's normally an advisory.

The criteria is different for different areas. DFW's criteria is around 0F or lower wind chill. Winter storm warnings are usually for 4" of snow or more (ice notwithstanding). Further north of here our criteria is just advisories, for instance in New England.

Ok, that's what I was thinking, but you have clarified it.

Or could it be that us North Texans are better drivers than or South Texas friends??