Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 the 00z GFS has that ridge connection with greenland

[Brent]

GFS is just wave after wave of energy wow. Yeah it may not be cold enough verbatim but we can work on that shouldn't be using temps at face value that far out anyway

[Harp.1]

Those vorts continue to cross the country along the same paths over and over. It’s quite amazing the number of them! They just need to dig further south to do most of us any good.

[Harp.1]

GFS definitely colder this run.

[Cpv17]

Those vorts continue to cross the country along the same paths over and over. It’s quite amazing the number of them! They just need to dig further south to do most of us any good.

Yep! Like I said yesterday, they need to dig into Mexico. Not even El Paso would work for us southern folk. They need to dig much further S than that.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Those vorts continue to cross the country along the same paths over and over. It’s quite amazing the number of them! They just need to dig further south to do most of us any good.

That’s why long range models get it wrong 98% of the time. Each one would pull further south in this setup.

It’s why we beat the drum about operationals and their long range scores. Those CFS values posted earlier don’t shock me at all, given the setup.

Bookmark this post. I think the 20th-30th timeframe could be wild for all of us. This is exactly the setup you want to see this time of year. I think we will look back in March and be like… “Wow, 2024 winter was chaotic”… which will set the tone for the rest of the year outside of the weathersphere …. LOL.

[Stratton23]

00z GEFS and GEPS are colder and faster with the timing of the arctic air, GEFS and GEPS target the 10th timeframe for the arctic air entering the state, much faster than the OP runs

[Harp.1]

Those vorts continue to cross the country along the same paths over and over. It’s quite amazing the number of them! They just need to dig further south to do most of us any good.

That’s why long range models get it wrong 98% of the time. Each one would pull further south in this setup.

It’s why we beat the drum about operationals and their long range scores. Those CFS values posted earlier don’t shock me at all, given the setup.

Bookmark this post. I think the 20th-30th timeframe could be wild for all of us. This is exactly the setup you want to see this time of year. I think we will look back in March and be like… “Wow, 2024 winter was chaotic”… which will set the tone for the rest of the year outside of the weathersphere …. LOL.

Ok, sleet daddy! I hope you are right!!

[Brent]

Several EPS members over 10 inches here

Something is coming

[gpsnowman]

Latest long range outlook from Larry Cosgrove

With major changes in the forecast pattern, it might be best if we can check to see the three main influences on how the longer term shapes up. The analog sets say that colder changes nationally will be mostly below the Canadian border and east of the Rocky Mountains. The mean storm track roughly from northern Mexico to Florida and then on toward Nova Scotia. The time frame between January 15 and March 1, 2024.

You may now be noticing that the Elk Nino episode is weakening in sector 1,2 but steady in the 4 and 3.4 districts. In time, the cooling will spread to the western and central ENSO zones, perhaps rapidly so as we get close to Spring. As this happens, you should see less evidence of southern branch influence and more inputs from colder areas. The snow cover map should expand in the second half of winter, only to face a much warmer March as a Sargasso Sea/Southeast ridge becomes a larger influence.

The stratospheric (10MB) warming and circumpolar vortex stretching/splitting should act as a sort of mirror of what will happen at 500MB two to four weeks later. If recent forecast trends mean anything, there will be a few chances for cross-polar flow and with it, cAk intrusions.

A look at the Madden-Julian Oscillation is also wise, but beware of false information on tropical forcing, which is a huge problem in broadcast and social media these days. It is very simple; strongest convection should be in Phases 6, 7, 8, and 1 (east of Celebes to below Hawaii). There must be a connection to the polar westerlies, and linkage to the subtropical jet stream implies a colder, stormier outcome through the southern and eastern tiers of the lower 48 states. Wind anomalies are not a proper measure of the MJO, and the use of diagrams is mostly worthless as well (a good idea gone wrong, since none of the major predictive guidance in use seems to understand how lower-latitude disturbances are connected to cold-core storms.

I also need to remind everyone that there will be warm interruptions of sorts during pattern recharges. After a possible winter precipitation event in the Northeast on January 7, the Eastern Seaboard may stay out of the cold that covers locations to the left of the Appalachian Mountains. It is also possible that the passage of low pressure along the Gulf Coast could go a little further north in the third week of January. The problems that the ECMWF and CFS have been having with measuring the cold cores of systems embedded in the southern branch will make for some difficult forecast outlines. But many in the USA and Canada will finally feel like winter again, and with some luck these trends should hold through most of February.

[HockeyTx82]

So driving to church on 635 East bound (non express) from I35 there is deicing agent that has been sprayed down.......

Something they know that we don't?

Or just a a test run?

[gpsnowman]

So driving to church on 635 East bound (non express) from I35 there is deicing agent that has been sprayed down.......

Something they know that we don't?

Or just a a test run?

It's the winter kiss of death. They jinxed it now.

[snownado]

In all likelihood, December 2023 will tie for the 5th warmest at DFW with an average temp of 52.8*F.

[mmmmsnouts]

So driving to church on 635 East bound (non express) from I35 there is deicing agent that has been sprayed down.......

Something they know that we don't?

Or just a a test run?

They sprayed down a small section of 183 in Hurst before Christmas. They must be road testing the equipment so they have enough time to fix whatever isn't working.

[Wthrfan]

Latest long range outlook from Larry Cosgrove

With major changes in the forecast pattern, it might be best if we can check to see the three main influences on how the longer term shapes up. The analog sets say that colder changes nationally will be mostly below the Canadian border and east of the Rocky Mountains. The mean storm track roughly from northern Mexico to Florida and then on toward Nova Scotia. The time frame between January 15 and March 1, 2024.

You may now be noticing that the Elk Nino episode is weakening in sector 1,2 but steady in the 4 and 3.4 districts. In time, the cooling will spread to the western and central ENSO zones, perhaps rapidly so as we get close to Spring. As this happens, you should see less evidence of southern branch influence and more inputs from colder areas. The snow cover map should expand in the second half of winter, only to face a much warmer March as a Sargasso Sea/Southeast ridge becomes a larger influence.

The stratospheric (10MB) warming and circumpolar vortex stretching/splitting should act as a sort of mirror of what will happen at 500MB two to four weeks later. If recent forecast trends mean anything, there will be a few chances for cross-polar flow and with it, cAk intrusions.

A look at the Madden-Julian Oscillation is also wise, but beware of false information on tropical forcing, which is a huge problem in broadcast and social media these days. It is very simple; strongest convection should be in Phases 6, 7, 8, and 1 (east of Celebes to below Hawaii). There must be a connection to the polar westerlies, and linkage to the subtropical jet stream implies a colder, stormier outcome through the southern and eastern tiers of the lower 48 states. Wind anomalies are not a proper measure of the MJO, and the use of diagrams is mostly worthless as well (a good idea gone wrong, since none of the major predictive guidance in use seems to understand how lower-latitude disturbances are connected to cold-core storms.

I also need to remind everyone that there will be warm interruptions of sorts during pattern recharges. After a possible winter precipitation event in the Northeast on January 7, the Eastern Seaboard may stay out of the cold that covers locations to the left of the Appalachian Mountains. It is also possible that the passage of low pressure along the Gulf Coast could go a little further north in the third week of January. The problems that the ECMWF and CFS have been having with measuring the cold cores of systems embedded in the southern branch will make for some difficult forecast outlines. But many in the USA and Canada will finally feel like winter again, and with some luck these trends should hold through most of February.

I think Larry is the best and most sensible forecaster out there. Doesn’t overdo the hype.

[cajungal]

I rarely post and mostly just read. But I remember that I usually couldn’t keep up with the posts there were so many. And it was so active. This is the most quiet it ever been lately.

[Gotwood]

I rarely post and mostly just read. But I remember that I usually couldn’t keep up with the posts there were so many. And it was so active. This is the most quiet it ever been lately.

There has been zero to talk about. December had nothing to offer barely any rain or cold at all. January is looking better but still a lot of uncertainty.

[Stratton23]

This forum will get active soon lol, the arctic air is a guaranteed lock at this point, 100% confident in that, whether we can get a system or two to tap into that remains to be seen, but ensembles definitely are noisy on that

[SnowintheFalls]

This forum will get active soon lol, the arctic air is a guaranteed lock at this point, 100% confident in that, whether we can get a system or two to tap into that remains to be seen, but ensembles definitely are noisy on that

Getting cold air in place is a positive step in an El Nino winter. Hoping the moisture will aligns with it.

[Brent]

Just remember watch the ensembles the ensembles have more snow here than some of these op runs do especially the GFS. It has notoriously struggled with these setups before and besides everything is still a week out at least. Nothing is etched in stone obviously but all this focus on the GFS there are other models