Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The pdo has weakened from what I understand. Almost a monumental shift from a few months ago.

[Cpv17]

Noaa favors a + PNA in their 8-14 day outlook

Trash. I’m seeing people on the EC on X all excited now. Great. This ridging on the west coast is killing us.

[Wthrfan]

I fear these mild winters are going to be more the norm going forward. We’ll have occasional cold spells but in general things are trending warmer.

[Brent]

Well we were colder than forecast today. It'd be nice if that translated into some winter precip. I'm still pretty amazed we've wasted this much time and probably gonna get into January and not see even a flake

I always thought Tulsa had better winters than what we've seen recently. Apparently I was wrong

[starsfan65]

Well we were colder than forecast today. It'd be nice if that translated into some winter precip. I'm still pretty amazed we've wasted this much time and probably gonna get into January and not see even a flake

I always thought Tulsa had better winters than what we've seen recently. Apparently I was wrong

Brent we are still early in the Winter, our time will come.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Cancel it

[Throckmorton]

The pdo has weakened from what I understand. Almost a monumental shift from a few months ago.

November's reading of –3.24 was the lowest for any November on record (since 1854). It is a complex monthly statistic, not a daily one. December's reading will be released in about two weeks.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[Iceresistance]

The pdo has weakened from what I understand. Almost a monumental shift from a few months ago.

It might be collapsing as we speak

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1871882362524463207

[starsfan65]

The pdo has weakened from what I understand. Almost a monumental shift from a few months ago.

It might be collapsing as we speak
What this https://x.com/webberweather/status/1871882362524463207

What is suppose to mean?

[Ntxw]

The pdo has weakened from what I understand. Almost a monumental shift from a few months ago.

It might be collapsing as we speak

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1871882362524463207

It means the PDO isn't having as much influence as pre-winter forecasts were thinking. Not much -PNA that typically associates with -PDO.

[Stratton23]

The 18z GEFS did make a shift back to the WSW with the longwave trough, so colder run for texas, the GFS has a strong -NAO that keeps the cold air trapped in place for an extended period of time

[Throckmorton]

The pdo has weakened from what I understand. Almost a monumental shift from a few months ago.

It might be collapsing as we speak
What this https://x.com/webberweather/status/1871882362524463207

What is suppose to mean?

The PDO is only a monthly statistic. I see people all the time trying to measure it day by day. That always leads to error.

[Throckmorton]

Some GEFS mean forecasted temperatures in Oklahoma, northern Texas, and Austin for Jan. 9th (12/25, 18Z run). The 90th and 10th forecast percentiles are within parentheses.

43 (63)–24 (14)...Amarillo
52 (69)–37 (25)...Austin Camp Mabry
46 (65)–33 (21)...Dallas
40 (60)–27 (11)...Oklahoma City
38 (54)–25 (10)...Tulsa

[Harp.1]

I do not know what the above means. ^^

[Stratton23]

Interesting update from Larry Cosgrove about an hour ago, at least from my depiction and interpretation, he is more bullish about the cold in january, and even subtly hints at wintry precipitation chances across texas during the new month

[Iceresistance]

Ah yes, the GEFS that I like to see:


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SPaZm.gif

[Cpv17]

Brent yeah the EPS sends almost all the cold air to our east, GEFS/ GEPS starting to trend that way as well, if that happens, im officially throwing the towel on this winter

It will be neutral or negative first half of Jan don’t lose hope.

Man, you seem quite confident about this. I hope you’re right!

[Iceresistance]

I don't know the last time when the models just want +PNA and almost nonstop +PNA, this is nuts!

[Brent]

+PNA is becoming like the stupid Pacific air last year

It's just always something against us

[orangeblood]

Source region should start building big Arctic HPs soon. as Ntxw has mentioned, all it takes is a southwest digging S/W and it’s game on. Won’t be that difficult with the tanking EPO. Pattern looks really promising!