Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

I love it how the Weather Channel forecasts a high of 70 today for Houston. LOL. Perfect example of how poor of a job they really do. Lower 60's (as the NWS has it) is the way to go. I understand TWC uses an automated forecasting program, but, is the program really that stupid!? lol

[Johnny]

Oh and also, upper 20's are not very common here in Houston in February. Many record lows for February are around 25-30 degrees. So yes, it is unusual.

Yea it's a little unusual but not the arctic outbreak that has been depicted here.

[Tyler]

The new 12z Euro has the high on day 3 now as a 1048, at the same time the GFS says 1039! I am literally shocked right now. This could be the worst busted forecasts this weekend we've seen in a long time...

[Tyler]

This is ridiculous to have 10MB differences on day 3.

[Tyler]

Euro sea level pressure map overlayed by the GFS (white lines). 12z run. This is pathetic disagreemen. 10MB, geez:

[Tyler]

day 4 comparison. 1047 over Montana on Euro, 1033 on GFS. Unbelievable. I am in pure shock right now:

[southerngale]

I think it will be cold, but not a major Arctic outbreak as has been suggested here and there. We're 3 days away from the front and NWS still shows highs in the 50's for the whole weekend. They show 60's for today through Friday. (still sitting at 57° here though)
They're showing a low of 29° for Saturday night and the other days between now and then in the 33° - 42° range. Definitely colder than most of January and definitely closer to normal, possibly above or below average on any given day, but nothing like a major Arctic outbreak. Even if we were to somehow get any type of freezing precipitation or ice from rain that fell, it would be melted before most of us even woke up.

No ice skating on Galveston Bay this winter.

I love the cooler weather though... summer weather is long enough so a break is nice. Maybe one day it will be cold enough for one more fire in the fireplace.

[gboudx]

Tyler, the Hou NWS has a high of 55 with a low of 31 for you on Saturday, as of today. So you think you'll struggle to hit 50? The DFW NWS has a high of 48 with a low of 26 for me. If you struggle to hit 50, I wonder if I'll make it out of the low 40's? That's certainly colder than it's been.

[ETXHAMXYL]

The Local NTX mets have upped the temps with this cold snap upcoming. Most of the forecast had the DFW area in the 40's for Sat and Sun. Now they are in the lower 50's. Which is to say about normal or slightly below normal for this time of year. I think they believe in a backdoor approach and modified air coming down.
Also they lowered the Pops from 40% to 20% and said mainly to the South of us.
If we guys are in the 50's then I don't see how Houston will be anything but the upper 50's to 60. But will have a better chance of getting the rain than we will up here. Also on the long range forecast from our local Fox station shows temps rising Mon. and Tues back up near 60. the lows are in the 30's so I guess this is where they say we will be in a chill. Words like colder are now Cooler.
I think that after we have gone almost all Jan. in the upper 60's and 70's then this will be a drastic change, but still to me NO ARTIC change by any means that I can remember. I don't think it will even get as cold as it did in early Dec. No Snowpack and it will modify greatly before hitting the South. I believe the NWS has it correct this time, although I wish they would be wrong.

[Tyler]

day 5 Euro: -6 to -8C 850MB temps! THIS RUN IS COLDER THAN 0Z!

[Tyler]

GFS: Houston sees +1 850 temps
Euro: 850 temps -6 to -8. We are stuck in the 40's all weekend vs. 60's GFS.

Don't you guys get it? The NWS is leaning more towards the pathetic inconsistent GFS, THATS why ya'lls forecasts are so warm. They are going the inbetween route, which is what you should do. But now, this is model disagreement is getting ridiculous.

Also, if the Euro is correct, we'd be in the mid 20's sunday morning...

This is the worst model disagreement I've seen in a long time.

[drezee]

GFS: Houston sees +1 850 temps
Euro: 850 temps -6 to -8. We are stuck in the 40's all weekend vs. 60's GFS.

Don't you guys get it? The NWS is leaning more towards the pathetic inconsistent GFS, THATS why ya'lls forecasts are so warm. They are going the inbetween route, which is what you should do. But now, this is model disagreement is getting ridiculous.

Also, if the Euro is correct, we'd be in the mid 20's sunday morning...

This is the worst model disagreement I've seen in a long time.

Do you have a pic of the 700mb RH on Day 3-4? The text seems to be printing out precip in the cold air over the south and east...

[southerngale]

GFS: Houston sees +1 850 temps
Euro: 850 temps -6 to -8. We are stuck in the 40's all weekend vs. 60's GFS.

Don't you guys get it? The NWS is leaning more towards the pathetic inconsistent GFS, THATS why ya'lls forecasts are so warm. They are going the inbetween route, which is what you should do. But now, this is model disagreement is getting ridiculous.

Also, if the Euro is correct, we'd be in the mid 20's sunday morning...

This is the worst model disagreement I've seen in a long time.

And the forecast here now calls for 29° - not too far off.

It will definitely be colder than it has been, but nothing earth shattering. It seems like it will be closer to what you expect in the middle of winter.

[Tyler]

Here ya go drezee : (btw, if you'd like to make maps like these as well, just go http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html

700MB Humidity maps:
Day 3:


Day 4:


Day 5:

[Tyler]

GFS: Houston sees +1 850 temps
Euro: 850 temps -6 to -8. We are stuck in the 40's all weekend vs. 60's GFS.

Don't you guys get it? The NWS is leaning more towards the pathetic inconsistent GFS, THATS why ya'lls forecasts are so warm. They are going the inbetween route, which is what you should do. But now, this is model disagreement is getting ridiculous.

Also, if the Euro is correct, we'd be in the mid 20's sunday morning...

This is the worst model disagreement I've seen in a long time.

And the forecast here now calls for 29° - not too far off.

It will definitely be colder than it has been, but nothing earth shattering. It seems like it will be closer to what you expect in the middle of winter.

Mid 20's is record territory for Houston... Not sure about Beaumont!

[drezee]

Definite wintry precip ofer N AL and GA

[Portastorm]

GFS: Houston sees +1 850 temps
Euro: 850 temps -6 to -8. We are stuck in the 40's all weekend vs. 60's GFS.

Don't you guys get it? The NWS is leaning more towards the pathetic inconsistent GFS, THATS why ya'lls forecasts are so warm. They are going the inbetween route, which is what you should do. But now, this is model disagreement is getting ridiculous.

Also, if the Euro is correct, we'd be in the mid 20's sunday morning...

This is the worst model disagreement I've seen in a long time.

C'mon Tyler, the GFS is an outstanding computer model. Not sure what you're on about.

(by the way, today is opposite day!)

[Tyler]

Ya, thats interesting!

[Tyler]

HPC discussion this afternoon makes the exact same point I've been making:

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE ERN NOAM MEAN
TROF DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE LATEST GFS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENING THE TROUGH IN ITS LATEST 12Z RUN IN FAVOR OF A CLOSED
CYC IN THE MIDWEST...A LARGE CHANGE IN ITS LAST COUPLE DAYS OF
CONTINUITY...AND IT HAS NO SUPPORT OF THE OTHER 12Z GLOBAL
GUIDANCE. WHILE PROGS USED THE 00Z GFS SFC FCST DUE TO ITS
PREFERRED SOLN OVER THE EAST... AMPLITUDE OF THE WRN CANADA RIDGE
COULD BRING THE SWRN PART OF THE ERN CONUS TROF A LITTLE FARTHER
SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THAN FCST BY THE GFS DURING DAYS 4-5
SAT-SUN. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE HIGHER SFC
PRESSURES/LOWER THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN PLAINS... SO TRENDING
THIS WAY SEEMS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY IF SUPPORTED BY FUTURE GFS
RUNS. THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROF SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WRN
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

They just said it and I'll say it again, GFS is on its own in the day 4-5 period. The ONLY model showing such a weak solution. All global models, NAM vs. GFS. Who's going to win?

[Portastorm]

Good info, Tyler ... thanks.

On a side note, does anyone know of a good way to take 850 mb temps and figure out, roughly, what surface temps might be? My guess is this air will be rather dry once the disturbance passes Texas, so there shouldn't be mitigating factors between the 850 mb level and the 1000 mb (surface) level.

Yes, those Euro 850 mb temps look very, VERY cold for this weekend. Major bust potential in the works.