Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ronyan]

I'm not seeing anything in the 12Z GFS to indicate winter weather in NE or SE TX for the next 2 weeks. Possibly some cold light rain next week.

Right, it looks like cold rain now. The trend is for colder air, not saying that is what the model shows now. I would be pretty surprised if anything frozen came down this late in winter for SE TX. But a freeze at IAH is looking more likely at this point.

Don't have access to a meteogram but North TX looks pretty dry on the GFS panels after frontal passage.

[vbhoutex]

The new GFS is a must see. Showing what i think is another ice event for SE Tx.

what is your timing on that? I don't see anything getting close enough to give any area of SE TX winter precip except the most Northern CWA.

[TheProfessor]

Then that is totally different from the 6 GFS then. It has I-35 and east receiving about 2 inches of rain for the first 4 days of March In North Texas. Though the temperatures are only in the 40s. If we could get that to be a snow event that would be amazing!

[TheProfessor]

The 12 GFS still has a quite a bit of precip for North Texas.

[texas1836]

Then that is totally different from the 6 GFS then. It has I-35 and east receiving about 2 inches of rain for the first 4 days of March In North Texas. Though the temperatures are only in the 40s. If we could get that to be a snow event that would be amazing!

That would give me my 24 inches of snow, I just don't see it happening. I do remember a couple Texas Independence Days (March 2nd) with snow, so you never know.

[TheProfessor]

Then that is totally different from the 6 GFS then. It has I-35 and east receiving about 2 inches of rain for the first 4 days of March In North Texas. Though the temperatures are only in the 40s. If we could get that to be a snow event that would be amazing!

That would give me my 24 inches of snow, I just don't see it happening. I do remember a couple Texas Independence Days (March 2nd) with snow, so you never know.

Only 24 inches if the temperatures are cold enough. If we got it I think the ratio would be closer to a 1:5 or 1:7 conversion. which would be closer to 10-14 inches, which would still be remarkable for March. Though I can't help to think that if the high places it self correctly and the temperatures are cold enough while the southern jet is active, if we get precip totals like with a 1:20 ratio like we had earlier this month, that would be crazy.

[wxman57]

A 1050MB high crashing into the plains will surely bring below freezing temps to us!

GFS (with the 1054mb high dropping out of Canada) predicts 33F at IAH (32F in Sugar Land) next Thursday, 12Z EC says 35-36F at IAH. Euro does indicate highs in the mid 40s next Wednesday. Too darn cold!

[dhweather]

A 1050MB high crashing into the plains will surely bring below freezing temps to us!

GFS (with the 1054mb high dropping out of Canada) predicts 33F at IAH (32F in Sugar Land) next Thursday, 12Z EC says 35-36F at IAH. Euro does indicate highs in the mid 40s next Wednesday. Too darn cold!

Dangerously close to losing a bet there, eh?

[orangeblood]

For the Southern Plains, the big issue that is starting to become apparent, regarding potential winter weather, is the Pacific Jet...yes, it should bring some welcomed moisture to the region but the downside is that it brings a lot of mild Pacific Air with it. You can see this on both the GFS and Euro and is reason those strong HP's weaken so significantly, they become overwhelmed with Pacific Air. The Cold Canadian Air is going to have a hard time going up against the Strong Pacific System coming ashore late next week, especially this time of year.


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[ravyrn]

Then that is totally different from the 6 GFS then. It has I-35 and east receiving about 2 inches of rain for the first 4 days of March In North Texas. Though the temperatures are only in the 40s. If we could get that to be a snow event that would be amazing!

That would give me my 24 inches of snow, I just don't see it happening. I do remember a couple Texas Independence Days (March 2nd) with snow, so you never know.

Only 24 inches if the temperatures are cold enough. If we got it I think the ratio would be closer to a 1:5 or 1:7 conversion. which would be closer to 10-14 inches, which would still be remarkable for March. Though I can't help to think that if the high places it self correctly and the temperatures are cold enough while the southern jet is active, if we get precip totals like with a 1:20 ratio like we had earlier this month, that would be crazy.

You are dreaming, good sir.

[wxman57]

A 1050MB high crashing into the plains will surely bring below freezing temps to us!

GFS (with the 1054mb high dropping out of Canada) predicts 33F at IAH (32F in Sugar Land) next Thursday, 12Z EC says 35-36F at IAH. Euro does indicate highs in the mid 40s next Wednesday. Too darn cold!

Dangerously close to losing a bet there, eh?

Yeah, going to have to get up to IAH with a hair dryer next Thursday...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The new GFS is a must see. Showing what i think is another ice event for SE Tx.

what is your timing on that? I don't see anything getting close enough to give any area of SE TX winter precip except the most Northern CWA.

I was using the 925 mb chart that shows below freezing temps with rain for next week. Ill look over the models again. Could be off.


Edit: 129, 132hrs shows moisture with 925 MB show below freezing. I know its not surface temps but should i use something else?

[orangeblood]

The new GFS is a must see. Showing what i think is another ice event for SE Tx.

what is your timing on that? I don't see anything getting close enough to give any area of SE TX winter precip except the most Northern CWA.

I was using the 925 mb chart that shows below freezing temps with rain for next week. Ill look over the models again. Could be off.


Edit: 129, 132hrs shows moisture with 925 MB show below freezing. I know its not surface temps but should i use something else?

Yes, the surface, we don't live at 925 MB...unless there's a 2500 ft tall high rise in downtown Houston you could hang out at

[Texas Snowman]

Hmmmm....

[Portastorm]

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[TheProfessor]

If you haven't visited the ENSO thread now is a good time. Links to Jeff Master's blog (Mike Ventrice's discussion) on the reshuffling of the Pacific for potential big nino event. Sums up well what has been discussed in that thread the past month, today's post is a cheat sheet :p

That enso thread was very interesting. I have never heard of a super El Nino before.

[Ntxw]

If you haven't visited the ENSO thread now is a good time. Links to Jeff Master's blog (Mike Ventrice's discussion) on the reshuffling of the Pacific for potential big nino event. Sums up well what has been discussed in that thread the past month, today's post is a cheat sheet :p

That enso thread was very interesting. I have never heard of a super El Nino before.

Sorry I didn't have the chance earlier to respond to your question over there. In essence a Super Nino is just a loose term dubbed for the strongest El Nino's often eastern Pacific based or EP Nino. The warmest anomalies are centered around Nino 3.4, 3, and 1+2 with very hot waters off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. The other type of El Nino is the modoki or CP (central Pacific) and the warmest waters reside in the western basins Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 while th eastern basin is cooler off the SA coast. They are not as strong as the EP Nino's and usually are the ones with very cold and snowy winters. Both feature wet and below normal annually for Texas.

The funny thing we're the only major region (south and eastern US) that probably roots on El Nino like crazy. The rest of the world dreads the phenomenon as it brings major drought to the large population centers of Asia and Oceania. Everyone else loves La Nina and we hate it lol.

[Tireman4]

GFS (with the 1054mb high dropping out of Canada) predicts 33F at IAH (32F in Sugar Land) next Thursday, 12Z EC says 35-36F at IAH. Euro does indicate highs in the mid 40s next Wednesday. Too darn cold![/quote]

Dangerously close to losing a bet there, eh? [/quote]

Yeah, going to have to get up to IAH with a hair dryer next Thursday...[/quote]

Ha. Ha. Nope. That is five miles from my house. You use a hair dryer, I will use Gru's Freeze Ray!!!

[Portastorm]

While this doesn't pertain specifically to winter in Texas right now but what it does do is go into great detail and stunning beauty of the weather patterns of the planet and the specific satellites that constantly monitor the planet. I recommend all weather enthusiasts to check it out. Forgive me if this is in the wrong thread and feel free to move it to the appropriate place but definitely watch. It's amazing and fascinating and I think everyone on the forum would love it if you haven't already seen it yet.



Watch "Earth From Space HD 1080p / Nova" on YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38peWm7 ... ata_player

I'm moving this over to the Global Weather thread which is the appropriate spot for it. Thanks.

[wxman57]

Overnight model runs continue to trend warmer for next week and the week after. Barely a light freeze in Dallas next week.