Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

I'm really getting a kick out of watching wxman57 model hugging. Poor fella is just desperate for spring to begin.

Meanwhile, it'll be interesting to see if the GFS/NAM are right for Austin's weather today. Overnight runs of those models showed heavy sleet falling at times in the AUS metro area later today.

I've also gotten a kick out of his daily meteograms and announcements "Spring is coming, I tell you. Good news, the models show no more winter for Texas! It's going to warm up, I tell you!"

My favorite time was back in January when we heard all of the above, saw an avalanche of meteograms, and the pronouncement that he saw nothing extreme at the end of the month or beginning of February.

And then days later, not once, but twice, SE Texas and Louisiana had snow and ice!

If Fallon or Letterman need a vacation, I vote we send Heat Miser to the Big Apple for some late night comedy relief. We may not have had very much snow across the state this winter, but we've had plenty of cold. This is certainly a winter of Wxman57's discontent!

[Texas Snowman]

Valid Monday courtesy of the 12z GFS. 1050+ Arctic high, a southern storm that the models have no idea what to do with. Mixed bag of stuff followed by more cold. March in like a Lion. It tooketh from wxman57. DFW back in teens (single digits to the w nw towards the falls).

http://i60.tinypic.com/dpjqeg.gif

Good news Ntxw! But you ought to know you can only trust the models when they show warmth and false spring!

[wxman57]

I'm really getting a kick out of watching wxman57 model hugging. Poor fella is just desperate for spring to begin.

Meanwhile, it'll be interesting to see if the GFS/NAM are right for Austin's weather today. Overnight runs of those models showed heavy sleet falling at times in the AUS metro area later today.

I'm definitely NOT a model-hugger. Case in point, the new 12Z run of the GFS has much colder weather here next week and I don't believe it. I hope it'll be warmer.

Let's see if the 12Z Euro switches to colder...

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I'm really getting a kick out of watching wxman57 model hugging. Poor fella is just desperate for spring to begin.

Meanwhile, it'll be interesting to see if the GFS/NAM are right for Austin's weather today. Overnight runs of those models showed heavy sleet falling at times in the AUS metro area later today.

I'm definitely NOT a model-hugger. Case in point, the new 12Z run of the GFS has much colder weather here next week and I don't believe it. I hope it'll be warmer.

Oh, so you're a wishcaster. Got it.

[Texas Snowman]

Want to put that to a vote?

(The model hugging. Wxman57 IS a wonderful forecaster, that I will never dispute. That's especially true in the tropics.)

[TheProfessor]

If we can just get the precip to delay a little more and the cold comes early than expected, then North and Central Texas could see a decent snow event.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: Want to put that to a vote?

(The model hugging. Wxman57 IS a wonderful forecaster, that I will never dispute. That's especially true in the tropics.)

His tropical forecasting is very very good. That is true. Winter..ha ha ha..... ( just joking)

[Ntxw]

The MJO fully supports a major storm system from the Pacific as we are in the golden phases for wet weather. The key is to get wave to progress into P1 and 2 from P8 if you want the index to not fight the cold.



And of course you can thank ENSO for this. This is threatening to wxman57, because once the colder spring is done and the NE PAC warm pool becomes less of a factor it may just hand the baton to a new warm pool, El Nino in the tropical Pacific for a below average summer.

[Portastorm]

I'm really getting a kick out of watching wxman57 model hugging. Poor fella is just desperate for spring to begin.

Meanwhile, it'll be interesting to see if the GFS/NAM are right for Austin's weather today. Overnight runs of those models showed heavy sleet falling at times in the AUS metro area later today.

I'm definitely NOT a model-hugger. Case in point, the new 12Z run of the GFS has much colder weather here next week and I don't believe it. I hope it'll be warmer.

Let's see if the 12Z Euro switches to colder...

I love ya, man! I'm so thankful to you that you play along with us on this forum.

You know, a lot of us are actually on your side now ... hoping for consistently warmer weather and some nice spring rains. Although I have to admit it would be quite a hoot to get an actual winter weather event deep into Texas this year.

[Ntxw]

Euro is still on wxman57's side and says GFS is nuts. It doesn't put much energy in the southern branch instead does all kinds of lows in Alaska, Aleutians, and NE Pac. Is this possible??? At least until the end of it's run anyway, then it sends more cold.

[TheProfessor]

or maybe the gfs is saying that the Euro is nuts.

[Lagreeneyes03]

This is funny, the line for Warm Spring and Slow Spring seems to go right down the Tarrant/Dallas county line

Ok so I don't actually live in Roanoke, its my relative location. But I do live only about 5-7 miles to the northwest of that line. So I guess that means that while it would be 80 here, it will be 50 just on the other side of the lake.

So you live at Texas Motor Speedway. Don't lie. LOL I think I'm on the warm side of the lake. DFW airport will be 75 and DAL will be 55 haha

[JDawg512]

It's not uncommon to have a chilly early Spring. For those concerned about the budding trees, I wouldn't worry too much if it's a light freeze, they should be fine. If the temp drops into the 20's however that's when they would see damage.

Let's not forget we are still in late winter. Meteorological Spring hasn't even arrived yet and for those that follow the season's change on the Equinox, then there is just under 4 weeks to go.

[TheProfessor]

This is funny, the line for Warm Spring and Slow Spring seems to go right down the Tarrant/Dallas county line

Ok so I don't actually live in Roanoke, its my relative location. But I do live only about 5-7 miles to the northwest of that line. So I guess that means that while it would be 80 here, it will be 50 just on the other side of the lake.

So you live at Texas Motor Speedway. Don't lie. LOL I think I'm on the warm side of the lake. DFW airport will be 75 and DAL will be 55 haha

No I live in the Denton county part of Southlake. I'm just bad a determining distances.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: or maybe the gfs is saying that the Euro is nuts.

I prefer to think the former. Just got out of 3 hrs worth of meetings and saw the 12Z Euro. Coldest is 26-27F in Dallas area Mon/Tue and upper 30s to 40 in Houston next week as coldest mornings. Honestly, I do think that the GFS is probably too cold, but I think the Euro may be a bit too warm. Neither is indicating any precip in the cold air, which is probably most likely - particularly if the airmass tends toward the colder spectrum. I plan to enjoy biking this weekend and get my electric blanket out for early next week.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: or maybe the gfs is saying that the Euro is nuts.

I prefer to think the former. Just got out of 3 hrs worth of meetings and saw the 12Z Euro. Coldest is 26-27F in Dallas area Mon/Tue and upper 30s to 40 in Houston next week as coldest mornings. Honestly, I do think that the GFS is probably too cold, but I think the Euro may be a bit too warm. Neither is indicating any precip in the cold air, which is probably most likely - particularly if the airmass tends toward the colder spectrum. I plan to enjoy biking this weekend and get my electric blanket out for early next week.

Can I ship the propane heater over to you Monday? We have three.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS says 12z is nuts, mildly chilly only!

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauley re Sunday rain.

Stat Method is still hitting the rain chances hard on Sunday but sadly still has no clue to the amounts other than it will be measurable for over half of north Texas. But as we all saw last night, just because we get widespread rain (see prior post depicting our 70% coverage last night) that does not mean we get soaked with rain!

And flags are going up that we MIGHT see some sleet/freezing rain with this event as temperatures start nice and mild early Sunday morning and then plummett throughout the day into Monday as we fall into the 20s again with a howling north wind. Stay tuned for updates on that.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Woah turn my head and were in the thirties. 39.9F.

[Texas Snowman]

Good news everyone! Had a high of only 40 today despite ample bright sunshine. Currently sitting at 35 degrees here in Denison at 6:53

NWS says we are headed for the low 20s tonight (with a dew point of 14 right now).

Time to put another log on the deterministic fire tonight. No sign of spring today in Texomaland!!!