Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Was gone for ONE DAY! As far as people scared of the pattern, dont worry. Lots of winter left. Even recently, winter has kicked off as late as Jan 10 and it was one to remember.

Loving the PGFS right now. That is a MONSTER high. I will check the dynamics in a moment and see if i notice anything special.

[Ntxw]

I think perception is being skewed a bit here. Most seasoned posters have advertised a significant change in the weather pattern to end December around and after Christmas. Models had nothing but warm anomalies until the past week when they began showing these solutions varyingly. So again like in November we established a point in which to look for and they are slowly catching up. It is only pushed back if you are taking run for run like gospel.

[Portastorm]

I think perception is being skewed a bit here. Most seasoned posters have advertised a significant change in the weather pattern to end December around and after Christmas. Models had nothing but warm anomalies until the past week when they began showing these solutions varyingly. So again like in November we established a point in which to look for and they are slowly catching up. It is only pushed back if you are taking run for run like gospel.

Taking each run as gospel truth is dangerous. If anyone on this board for any length of time should know by now and that is when a pattern change is coming, we see volatility in the models. And that's what we're seeing right now.

Of course, if a computer model is showing anomalous warmth, it can be trusted beyond five days, right wxman57?!

[Tireman4]

I think perception is being skewed a bit here. Most seasoned posters have advertised a significant change in the weather pattern to end December around and after Christmas. Models had nothing but warm anomalies until the past week when they began showing these solutions varyingly. So again like in November we established a point in which to look for and they are slowly catching up. It is only pushed back if you are taking run for run like gospel.

Taking each run as gospel truth is dangerous. If anyone on this board for any length of time should know by now and that is when a pattern change is coming, we see volatility in the models. And that's what we're seeing right now.

Of course, if a computer model is showing anomalous warmth, it can be trusted beyond five days, right wxman57?!

Not when it is showing 80's and 90's in December and January. Then it is nails...

[Brandon8181]

Hi everyone! Hope all is well. Been a pretty slow winter huh? Looks like things might be getting ready to rev back up again over the next month. Thoughts?

Merry Christmas everyone!

[gatorcane]

The cold certainly appears to be coming folks...

GFS-Para temp anomaly map showing the artic surge. Looks rather potent.

http://i57.tinypic.com/x6ga3s.png

ECMWF right there with it:
http://i58.tinypic.com/2mmz9eu.png

The Euro seems to have backed off some on the cold air spilling out of Canada, and now looks to only keep it locked in the Central/Western parts of the U.S. Looks to me like the Euro also has a potent ridge over the Eastern U.S. keeping any of that cold from heading too far east.

The GFS on the other hand is just all over the place now with showing extreme cold (even well down into S. FL) on it's 18z run yesterday in the long range. To showing brief cold air intrusions on it's 00z, 06z runs today which don't even make it well into the Deep South.

I guess the Euro showing the cold to some extent is good enough.

Euro just beyond Christmas is where things get interesting which it has been showing for the past few days. Models look to be in strong agreement the pattern starts to change around Christmas. Latest 12Z runs below:

Euro:


GFS:


GEM:


JMA:

[dhweather]

The cold certainly appears to be coming folks...


JMA:

WXMAN57 likes this one.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose mentions December 27th. Now, if we can only get the precipitation with it, we may be talking about something.

Expect much colder temperatures arriving around the 27th.
http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[gboudx]

Here's an excerpt from Steve McCauleys latest post:

...
Then the weather goes quiet for the weekend into next week with temperatures mostly at or above normal through Christmas Day with 50s and 60s expected (could even see 70s in western portions of north Texas). The unseasonably mild weather prevails through predawn Friday, and then BOOM! Strong cold front sets us up for a widespread freeze by Saturday morning.

At this time it "looks" like the rain shuts off BEFORE it has a chance to turn wintry, but stay tuned...it may be close.

[Ralph's Weather]

I think perception is being skewed a bit here. Most seasoned posters have advertised a significant change in the weather pattern to end December around and after Christmas. Models had nothing but warm anomalies until the past week when they began showing these solutions varyingly. So again like in November we established a point in which to look for and they are slowly catching up. It is only pushed back if you are taking run for run like gospel.

Agreed. We tend to latch on to models that show what we are biased towards, but if you just go on what we expected from the beginning we are following that closely. Warm start to December then cool and changeable and finally cold to end the month and beyond. Nuri threw off the expected pattern by giving us a very cold spell in November, but we have followed expectations closely since mid November. This January will erase all thoughts of "winter cancel".

[orangeblood]

I'm officially declaring the CFSv2 models useless...besides just throwing out random scenarios and pretty colored maps every 6 hours for long range forecast, it has no use in the weather forecast community and has never shown a sustained proven track record. Sorry for the rant but what a waste of taxpayer money!!!

[srainhoutx]

What? No love for the Updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs?

[orangeblood]

What? No love for the Updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs?

Yikes!! Heavy hitters on that list...with numero uno being the front end of the coldest streak in DFW History, late December 1983!!! It's been awhile since I've since that winter analog show up, don't think I've ever seen it listed 1st on the list. #2 Dec 17, 1989 is a few days before the coldest temperature of the century in DFW of -1 Deg F. This pattern change has EXTREME potential when you see those analogs showing up.

[gatorcane]

The long-range GFS and GFS ensembles keep the colder-than-normal pattern entrenched across much of the U.S. (especially east of the rockies) out through the end of their runs which end at 384 hours with reinforcing arctic air intrusions, once the pattern changes starting right around Christmas or a little after. So looks like we could see the true start of winter across much of the United States come end of this month.

[ndale]

With Steve McCauley and Bob Rose from LCRA mentioning much colder by the 27th it looks like pro mets are on board, well except maybe Wxman57, he will fight it to the end.

[Portastorm]

More immediately, EWX easing down their progged precip totals for the Austin metro area. Now looking at close to an inch of rain per the afternoon AFD. Oh well, one inch is better than nothing. I shouldn't complain.

They reference a less than robust moisture return to this part of the state. I imagine southeast and east Texas will do well with this system in the rainfall department.

[Big O]

What? No love for the Updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs?

Not to toot my own horn, but this is a post I made three days ago:


wxman57 wrote:

All this talk of the "coming" cold and snow. Meanwhile, it's 78 degrees and sunny in Houston. Perfect December weather! I managed to drain all of the cold air out of the Arctic with that mid November outbreak (that made me win the first freeze contest). Our winter ended after that event!

On a more serious note, the 12Z GFS can't even seem to get this weekend's storm track right. Once again, it shunts the storm out to the east and out to sea, with no East Coast storm. Almost certainly it's wrong. And if it can't get a 5-7 day forecast right (or even close), I would not trust it at 360 hrs.

orangeblood wrote:

Pretty remarkable how different the GFS and Euro are for next week's system. Speaking of Euro, it's control run has some of the coldest air I've seen in awhile building across the northern plains into Canada after Christmas....some 40-50 F degrees below normal stretching from Northern Alberta into Colorado, massive blocking across the the Eastern Pacific and over the pole/incredible height falls across the central Rockies into the plains! Fascinating especially considering it fits the top analogs so closely!

my post:

Good pick up. I took a look at both the Euro ensemble mean and control for Days 11-15, and to say the least, they are impressive. Cross-polar flow is quite apparent, and there are signs of an undercutting STJ. This setup reminds me a lot of December 1983. I'm not saying 1983 is a matching analog based on ENSO or the various teleconnections, I'm merely impressed with the similarities to December 1983 (i.e., impressive ridge just on the west coast up through Alaska and western Canada with an undercutting jet).

There also appears to be a ridge over SE Canada (perhaps west-based -NAO) that seems to be retrograding and attempting to link with the western ridge. I'm not exactly sure what this would mean if it, in fact, happened, but perhaps it will lock all the frigid air over the CONUS for an extended period of time. Thoughts?

[TheProfessor]

Looks like the clouds won out today, Only 48 degrees here.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the clouds won out today, Only 48 degrees here.

Same here maybe reached the low 50s.

[Texas Snowman]

Ok, I've posted this before. But the infamous December 1983 nearly two-week long freeze in Texas has been brought up a couple of times today. For those of you that don't remember it, I offer this story to remind how severe that cold snap was.

And remember, this is talking about the effects on the Texas Gulf Coast. Big lakes actually froze over in North Texas. Lake Texoma's Big Mineral Arm north of Hagerman was frozen from one side to the other. Only the middle of the lake out towards the islands stayed open as I recall.

It was the most amazing cold snap of the 20th century, certainly of the latter half of the century.

-----
Christmas 1983 freeze left heavy mark on Texas coastal fisheries

By SHANNON TOMPKINS Houston Chronicle
Dec. 24, 2003, 8:21PM

AUTUMN'S official final day in 1983 became the unofficial first day of a new reality for Texas coastal fisheries resources, the people who manage them and the Texans who enjoy them.

Events that began that day, 20 years ago this week, accelerated changes in Texas coastal fisheries management philosophy, forced anglers to accept the fragility of coastal resources and left wounds in the inshore fishery that may never heal.

"It changed everything," Gene McCarty, former director of coastal fisheries for Texas Parks and Wildlife Department and current chief of staff for the agency, said of what has become known as the Christmas '83 Freeze.

Dec. 21, 1983, dawned seasonably mild with a light, humid southeast wind blowing from the Gulf.

That afternoon, an arctic cold front of epic strength rushed south over Texas, bringing screaming north wind, sleet and dropping temperatures.

Temperature slipped below freezing in Houston the afternoon of Dec. 22, and did not rise above that mark for five days -- a record that still stands.

The Texas coast was locked in one of the most severe, persistent freezes in more than a century.

Christmas morning, Houston recorded a low of 11 degrees. Galveston registered 14 degrees. It was 6 below zero in Dallas, and 13 in Del Rio.

"It was 15 degrees in Palacios," said Paul Hammerschmidt, who in 1983 was a TPWD coastal fisheries biologist based in Port O'Connor. "It was warmer in Anchorage, Alaska."

Another brutal arctic cold front just before New Year's Day reinforced the cold, and kept temperatures below or near freezing for several more days.

"I remember getting in a net skiff with a commercial fisherman in Flour Bluff (near Corpus Christi) on Jan. 2 and going down to Baffin Bay," said Ed Hegen, then a TPWD coastal fisheries biologist working out of Rockport. "It was unbelievably cold. I don't think I've thawed out since then."

What Hegen, now Lower Texas Coast regional director for TPWD's coastal fisheries division, saw in Baffin Bay that day mirrored what other TPWD coastal fisheries staff witnessed when they went afield to survey the bays.

"There were windrows of dead fish everywhere," Hegen recalled. "They were stacked for yards along the shorelines. Spotted seatrout, redfish, drum -- every species in the bay."

The shallow bay was clear as glass, Hegen said. Visible on the bay floor was a carpet of dead fish at least equal to the numbers stacked against the windward shores and floating in sheets on the surface.

Texas inshore marine fisheries had been caught in a frigid, fatal trap. Evolved for life in a temperate, even tropical environment, Texas marine life is not built to endure severe cold. Caught in water about 45 degrees or lower for more than a day, they die. Death can come from suffocation -- the metabolism of the cold-blooded fish slows to the point they can't extract oxygen from the water. Or they can suffer frostbite, having the flesh of fins, tails and other extremities literally frozen.

"The severity and duration of the '83 freeze were what made it so deadly," said Hammerschmidt, now program director of regulations for TPWD's coastal fisheries division.

Fisheries biologists knew fish were dying, but they couldn't get on the water to assess the impact until the worst of the weather had passed.

"The bays literally froze over," Hammerschmidt said. "We couldn't get boats in the water."

"There was ice 4 inches thick for 100 yards off the shore (of the Upper Laguna Madre)," Hegen remembers. "We had to wait until it began breaking up to get on the water."

TPWD scrambled coastal fisheries staff to begin assessing the freeze's impact, surveying the bays from boats, on foot and from the air.

It was worse than they could imagine.

The first place Hammerschmidt inspected was the shallows of the San Antonio and Espiritu Santo bays.

"I went into Shoalwater Bay and it was covered with dead fish -- redfish stacked in heaps like cordwood."

The beach of Matagorda Island was littered with carcasses of adult redfish and the occasional sea turtle.

Texas bays have always seen occasional freeze-triggered fish kills. But almost all during the 20th Century had been relatively minor or affected only portions of the Texas coast.

The Christmas '83 Freeze was different. It hammered the entire Texas coast, from Sabine Pass to Port Isabel.

TPWD coastal fisheries biologists began counting dead fish, using sampling techniques they had developed as part of standardized fish population research the agency had begun in 1975. At the time it was the most avant-garde fisheries work in the nation.

The tally was breathtaking. TPWD estimated the freeze killed more than 20 million coastal finfish. The number of invertebrate marine life -- shrimp, crab, etc. -- lost was estimated at more than one-billion organisms.

Not since 1952 had Texas seen such a widespread and devastating freeze-caused fish kill.

In 1952, Texas fisheries managers could do little to address the effects of such a crippling blow to coastal fisheries. Coastal fisheries were relatively lightly utilized and the Texas Game, Fish and Oyster Commission (precursor to TPWD) was hamstrung by political realities of the day.

But 1983 was different.

Earlier that year, the Texas Legislature had passed the Uniform Wildlife Regulatory Act, a watershed piece of legislation that gave TPWD authority to set statewide fishing and hunting regulations.

(Prior to the law, counties could, and often did, set their own hunting and fishing regulations, even if in direct conflict with state regulations, blunting scientific management efforts.)

Also, improved science, a move toward proactive management of fisheries and a public becoming increasingly aware of pressure on coastal resources set the stage for what happened in the wake of the '83 freeze.

Almost immediately, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Commission moved to impose more conservative recreational and commercial fishing regulations.

Fisheries needed the protection.

Anglers needed no convincing of that. The bays were empty.

But TPWD used its sampling protocols to document the massive hole the freeze left in coastal fisheries.

"The freeze proved the value of our long-term monitoring programs," Hammerschmidt said. "We could document the state of the fisheries to justify management moves and track their effectiveness."

"That freeze was the thing that shaped our coastal fisheries management philosophy, and turned the focus on conservation," said Gene McCarty. "We began looking at the long-term, and being proactive instead of reactive. It was the direction we were heading, but the freeze accelerated things."

When the freeze hit, McCarty was working at the just-opened John Wilson Fish Hatchery near Corpus Christi, the first hatchery in the nation devoted to producing inshore marine fish for stocking into coastal waters.

The hatchery's focus was on redfish, a species that even before the freeze had been decimated by overfishing.

"Prior to the freeze, we were in the research and assessment mode, just getting our feet on the ground and stocking fish only in San Antonio and Espiritu Santo bays," McCarty said. "After the freeze, we immediately went statewide, stocking redfish in every bay on the coast."

"The freeze kicked our hatchery program into high gear," Hegen said. "We had been initially working just with redfish, but we started doing the first really serious research into raising trout because of the freeze."

Coastal fishing was horrible in 1984 and into '85. But the trout and redfish fisheries slowly improved, statewide.

Then, in 1989, two killer freezes -- in February and another at Christmas -- killed millions more coastal fish.

But the damage from those freezes totaled about half the casualties of the '83 freeze. TPWD imposed slightly tighter fishing regulations, worked on habitat and stocking. It helped that, in 1988, all netting had been banned from coastal waters, a move justified by TPWD's monitoring.

The coastal fishery recovered from those '89 freezes much quicker than in '83.

"That faster recovery is directly related to lessons we learned from the '83 freeze," Hammerschmidt said.

-----

Shannon Tompkins covers outdoor recreation for the Chronicle. His column appears Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays.