Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TheProfessor]

Merry Christmas everyone! And Unfortunately the last 2 GFS runs have shifted West and it seems the low is moving faster too.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS running now shows a rain event for Dallas and Fort Worth, I am not seeing any significant snowfall.

[TheAustinMan]

Weather Prediction Center probability forecast for 12z December 27th to 12z December 28th depicting the chance that areas will see snowfall totals greater than or equal to an inch. Legend at bottom left.

[Tammie]

Still planning a trip to Amarillo early tomorrow morning. Hotel room is booked for 5 days. Is their "blizzard" still on for Saturday night through Monday morning?

[TheProfessor]

12z CMC still has snow for western parts of Collin and Dallas County westward through 72 hours.

[Ntxw]

Still planning a trip to Amarillo early tomorrow morning. Hotel room is booked for 5 days. Is their "blizzard" still on for Saturday night through Monday morning?

Yes, they are in a good spot for blizzard conditions. Both Amarillo and Lubbock are under blizzard watches. Should get the very least front end thumping before the system kicks out.

[JayDT]

Now that the GFS is trending a bit west, how funny would it be if the Euro comes in trending further east?

[wxman57]

Ho! Ho! Ho! Merry Christmas! Temperature already at 80F as of 11am. Time to head out on the bike for a nice, warm bike ride. I'm keeping the thermostat at "warm" for another week (until I win the forecast contest).

[hriverajr]

Ho! Ho! Ho! Merry Christmas! Temperature already at 80F as of 11am. Time to head out on the bike for a nice, warm bike ride. I'm keeping the thermostat at "warm" for another week (until I win the forecast contest).

Well the week ends saturday at midnight. :p

[Kennethb]

Here in Baton Rouge it was already 76 at 6:00 am with a dewpoint of 73. Pretty incredible.

[Ntxw]

Winter Storm Warnings are up for El Paso, not sure if we have any posters out that way. For them the event starts in 24 hours for 3-6" of snow

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
454 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE TO
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.A WINTER STORM ORGANIZING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW DRIVING THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ARIZONA TONIGHT AND THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MEXICO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EAST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN AROUND 7000 FEET SATURDAY BUT FALL RAPIDLY TO THE DESERT
FLOOR BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM MID DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BRISK WINDS WITH IT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING OUR SKIES TO CLEAR. VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Merry Christmas, all! Although it sounds like central Texas will again narrowly miss wintry fun, I hope some of y'all get to have a great winter experience this weekend. Thought everyone would enjoy the forecast discussion from EWX this morning:

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS I SIT IN MY CHAIR ON THIS QUIET CHRISTMAS NIGHT...
I THINK ABOUT THE WEATHER AND THE CHANGES IN SIGHT.
ITS BEEN AN UNUSUAL YEAR...THAT MUCH IS TRUE...
AND EL NINO IS THE CULPRIT TO WHICH BLAME IS DUE.

ITS CHRISTMAS NOW...AND WE ALL DREAM OF SNOW.
BUT THIS IS TEXAS...AND ITS ALSO EL NINO.
SO YET ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL MISS OUT ON WHITE...
AND YOULL PROBABLY WANT SHORTS...IF MY FORECAST IS RIGHT.

SO WHAT IS THERE TO NOTE ON OUR SPECIAL HOLIDAY?
OTHER THAN THE FACT IT WILL FEEL LIKE MAY?
WELL IT MAY BE WARM...BUT THERES YET STILL A TREAT...
A RARE CHRISTMAS MOON IN THE SKY COMPLETE.

IT COULD BE HARD TO SEE...IT MAY BE CLOUDY...
BUT DONT LET THAT GET YOU ALL DOWN AND POUTY.
IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN...THERE ARE MORE YEARS IN STORE...
EXCEPT NOT FOR A WHILE...NOT UNTIL 2034.

SO WHILE IT MAY NOT BE SNOWY OR WINTRY OR COLD.
ENJOY YOURSELVES ON THIS DAY WITH YOUR FAMILY YOUNG AND OLD.
BECAUSE EL NINO ISNT DONE...AND AS SOON AS THIS WEEKS END...
CHANGES ARE COMING...SO READ ON UNTIL THE END.

TB3

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A POTENT SOUTHWARD DIVING COLD
FRONT...AIDED BY FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS...A MOIST
WARM SECTOR...AND PLENTY OF SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A STRONG TO SEVERE
LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

THE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A
996-998 LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA BY 00Z AND ECMWF/DGEX ARE MUCH
LESS DEFINED IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. NAM SOLUTION APPEARS
TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS PRODUCE A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER AS IT CROSSES THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE 06Z. IT APPEARS THAT
THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALLS AT 500 MB COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL IN A REGIME
CHARACTERIZED BY DECREASING 500 MB TEMPERATURES...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT...BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...AND A
50+ KT LLJ. WHILE AN APPRECIABLE CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...IF THAT
CAP WAS TO BREAK...PARCELS WOULD BE RISING IN A HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO DISCRETE CELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONT COMING THROUGH IT
APPEARS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THOSE...BUT
TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST AS LCLS WILL BE DECREASING AND
HELICITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION.

AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...THUNDER CHANCES
DIMINISH AND MORE WIDESPREAD POST FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL
RESULT...ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH
STEADILY DECREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SNOW REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG
OUR NORTHERN BORDER WITH SJT. OTHER MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING NOW
EVIDENT IN ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER WITH
LOW POSITIONING AS WELL. THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE NEEDED FOR
SNOW GROWTH AND AS A RESULT...BACKED OFF JUST A BIT ON SNOW
POTENTIAL ON THE PLATEAU. NOW ONLY SHOWING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. ALSO THINK A GOOD
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WOULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN...THUS ACCUMS
WOULD BE HARD TO COME BY.

MODELS ARE MORE RAPIDLY EXITING THIS LOW AND WE SHOULD BE POP FREE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WEEK WILL BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL BE IN STORE.
MAY EVEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH THEIR
FIRST FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING.

Cheers,
Cameron

[Brent]

Weather Prediction Center probability forecast for 12z December 27th to 12z December 28th depicting the chance that areas will see snowfall totals greater than or equal to an inch. Legend at bottom left.

http://puu.sh/m8cxX/05bed1de66.jpg

Love the Dallas heat island.

[weatherdude1108]

Merry Christmas, all! Although it sounds like central Texas will again narrowly miss wintry fun, I hope some of y'all get to have a great winter experience this weekend. Thought everyone would enjoy the forecast discussion from EWX this morning:

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS I SIT IN MY CHAIR ON THIS QUIET CHRISTMAS NIGHT...
I THINK ABOUT THE WEATHER AND THE CHANGES IN SIGHT.
ITS BEEN AN UNUSUAL YEAR...THAT MUCH IS TRUE...
AND EL NINO IS THE CULPRIT TO WHICH BLAME IS DUE.

ITS CHRISTMAS NOW...AND WE ALL DREAM OF SNOW.
BUT THIS IS TEXAS...AND ITS ALSO EL NINO.
SO YET ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL MISS OUT ON WHITE...
AND YOULL PROBABLY WANT SHORTS...IF MY FORECAST IS RIGHT.

SO WHAT IS THERE TO NOTE ON OUR SPECIAL HOLIDAY?
OTHER THAN THE FACT IT WILL FEEL LIKE MAY?
WELL IT MAY BE WARM...BUT THERES YET STILL A TREAT...
A RARE CHRISTMAS MOON IN THE SKY COMPLETE.

IT COULD BE HARD TO SEE...IT MAY BE CLOUDY...
BUT DONT LET THAT GET YOU ALL DOWN AND POUTY.
IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN...THERE ARE MORE YEARS IN STORE...
EXCEPT NOT FOR A WHILE...NOT UNTIL 2034.

SO WHILE IT MAY NOT BE SNOWY OR WINTRY OR COLD.
ENJOY YOURSELVES ON THIS DAY WITH YOUR FAMILY YOUNG AND OLD.
BECAUSE EL NINO ISNT DONE...AND AS SOON AS THIS WEEKS END...
CHANGES ARE COMING...SO READ ON UNTIL THE END.

TB3

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A POTENT SOUTHWARD DIVING COLD
FRONT...AIDED BY FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS...A MOIST
WARM SECTOR...AND PLENTY OF SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A STRONG TO SEVERE
LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

THE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A
996-998 LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA BY 00Z AND ECMWF/DGEX ARE MUCH
LESS DEFINED IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. NAM SOLUTION APPEARS
TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS PRODUCE A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER AS IT CROSSES THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE 06Z. IT APPEARS THAT
THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALLS AT 500 MB COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL IN A REGIME
CHARACTERIZED BY DECREASING 500 MB TEMPERATURES...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT...BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...AND A
50+ KT LLJ. WHILE AN APPRECIABLE CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...IF THAT
CAP WAS TO BREAK...PARCELS WOULD BE RISING IN A HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO DISCRETE CELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONT COMING THROUGH IT
APPEARS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THOSE...BUT
TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST AS LCLS WILL BE DECREASING AND
HELICITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION.

AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...THUNDER CHANCES
DIMINISH AND MORE WIDESPREAD POST FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL
RESULT...ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH
STEADILY DECREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SNOW REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG
OUR NORTHERN BORDER WITH SJT. OTHER MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING NOW
EVIDENT IN ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER WITH
LOW POSITIONING AS WELL. THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE NEEDED FOR
SNOW GROWTH AND AS A RESULT...BACKED OFF JUST A BIT ON SNOW
POTENTIAL ON THE PLATEAU. NOW ONLY SHOWING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. ALSO THINK A GOOD
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WOULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN...THUS ACCUMS
WOULD BE HARD TO COME BY.

MODELS ARE MORE RAPIDLY EXITING THIS LOW AND WE SHOULD BE POP FREE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WEEK WILL BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL BE IN STORE.
MAY EVEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH THEIR
FIRST FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING.

Cheers,
Cameron

I saw that. Cool they can have fun.

[TheProfessor]

God I wish the end of that end of the CMC would verify, that would justify nothing happening later this weekend.

[Brent]

CMC... most of that near the metro falls next weekend!

[TheProfessor]

And don't think you're missing out on wintery weather south of that heavy snow, CMC has a Heckuva of a ice storm into central Texas. It's too bad it's the CMC.

[Brent]

:uarrow: And don't think you're missing out on wintery weather south of that heavy snow, CMC has a Heckuva of a ice storm into central Texas. It's too bad it's the CMC.

It has frozen precip in DFW from Friday afternoon(New Years Day) through Sunday night!

That'd be a heck of a way to kick off 2016...

[TheProfessor]

Good God this would be a crippling storm if it were to verify, I will post maps in a bit. (it's a freely accessible site so they should be safe to post.

[TheProfessor]

All the ice is from this one event, and only 2 of the inches of snow in the northern two counties are from this weekend.
Freezing Rain:

image url upload

Sleet:

free picture hosting

Yes, that's 8 inches of sleet in Southern Tarrant County

Snow:
image url


This would make any of are past winter storms look like a snow (or ice) Shower compared to this. For a Comparison the 2013 ice storm gave me 4 inches of sleet and that shut us down for 6 days. Good thing it's the crazy Canadian. (Though I would like the snow to verify, but wouldn't wish an Ice storm like that on anyone)