Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: Still looks pretty cold for March.

I agree. Yesterday's 12Z GFS had a low of 26 in Houston next week. Today's is 10 degrees less cold (I hesitate to say "warmer").

So your assessment of warm has changed this winter sir?

[gpsnowman]

A bunch of us will be camping on Lake Ray Roberts the first weekend of spring break March 9-10. Are we going to freeze our rear ends off? Yeah, it's ten days away but the way this winter is going bringing a heater and an ice scraper would not be a bad idea. And long johns, liquor, wool socks, etc....

[wxman57]

12Z EC has the following for 6am/12pm temperatures in Dallas-Ft. Worth next week:

Mon: 25 / 40
Tue: 31 / 50
Wed: 43 / 50
Thu: 41 /55
Fri: 42 / 64

Coldest for Houston is 39 on Monday.

I still think that the actual temps will be somewhere between the GFS and Euro.

[weatherdude1108]

It was chilly this morning! But it will be 105 soon enough, to Wxman's delight.

[funster]

105s are forbidden until July or August, which I guess isn't really that far away. When 105s come in June or earlier it makes hot summers seem to last forever

Staying on the winter trend those temps do look pretty cold next week for March. Maybe that cold will keep on pouring down here until the Great Lakes thaw.

[orangeblood]

Sunday afternoon/Early Monday need to monitored very closely for folks in North Texas....that is a very strong High Pressure coming down the plains that models almost always underestimate speed. Wouldn't be surprised to see models push the wintry weather further south over the next few days

Edit: GFS has a 40-50 deg F temperature drop on Sunday behind the front...that is a Big Time late winter cold front


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[aggiecutter]

Sunday afternoon/Early Monday need to monitored very closely for folks in North Texas....that is a very strong High Pressure coming down the plains that models almost always underestimate speed. Wouldn't be surprised to see models push the wintry weather further south over the next few days

Edit: GFS has a 40-50 deg F temperature drop on Sunday behind the front...that is a Big Time late winter cold front


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Joe Haynes the channel 3 meteorologist out of Shreveport mentioned tonight that he thought there would be a wintry mix a long the I-30 corridor of NE Texas and SW Arkansas Sunday night into Monday morning.

[orangeblood]

Sunday afternoon/Early Monday need to monitored very closely for folks in North Texas....that is a very strong High Pressure coming down the plains that models almost always underestimate speed. Wouldn't be surprised to see models push the wintry weather further south over the next few days

Edit: GFS has a 40-50 deg F temperature drop on Sunday behind the front...that is a Big Time late winter cold front


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Joe Haynes the channel 3 meteorologist out of Shreveport mentioned tonight that he thought there would be a wintry mix a long the I-30 corridor of NE Texas and SW Arkansas Sunday night into Monday morning.

Good move on his part to at least mention the possibility. Frankly, I'm somewhat surprised the FW NWS office didn't during their afternoon discussion. Did Shreveport ?

[Ntxw]

0z NAM s a wintry mess on Sunday for the southern plains, Texas included. Cold outruns the system, it is the NAM though. But this may be one of those cases where the model performs poorly on the placement of low level cold air thus the storm very well may end up much further south.

Has DFW in the teens and single digits just above the Red River. Would be one of the coldest March blasts in quite some time if it were correct.

[newtotex]

I'm goin to OKC tomorrow till Sunday. Is it suppose to be pretty bad sunday?

[orangeblood]

0z NAM s a wintry mess on Sunday for the southern plains, Texas included. Cold outruns the system, it is the NAM though. But this may be one of those cases where the model performs poorly on the placement of low level cold air thus the storm very well may end up much further south.

Has DFW in the teens and single digits just above the Red River. Would be one of the coldest March blasts in quite some time if it were correct.

Yeah, when I looked this afternoon's GFS 850 mb 0, -10, -20 C temps stacked up on top of each other across Kansas and Oklahoma like that....I knew the models weren't going to handle the very strong low level cold advection/warm advection above it very well. This front means business and is going to bust a TON of forecast across Texas on Sunday. Folks as far south as I-10 need to pay attention to this one.....


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, when I looked this afternoon's GFS 850 mb 0, -10, -20 C temps stacked up on top of each other across Kansas and Oklahoma like that....I knew the models weren't going to handle the very strong low level cold advection/warm advection above it very well. This front means business and is going to bust a TON of forecast across Texas on Sunday. Folks as far south as I-10 need to pay attention to this one.....

Sounds about right, when has the cold air just stopped in the central plains this winter? Lee cyclogenesis can't beat the EPO! Low level cold is just too strong this year. I have a feeling the euro is going to lose this one.

[Ntxw]

A bunch of us will be camping on Lake Ray Roberts the first weekend of spring break March 9-10. Are we going to freeze our rear ends off? Yeah, it's ten days away but the way this winter is going bringing a heater and an ice scraper would not be a bad idea. And long johns, liquor, wool socks, etc....

Well GFS says 60s and 70s with partly sunny skies, euro says your trip has about 2 inches of snow on the ground. I'd prepare for anything just in case! In all seriousness the wavelengths get shorter so the swings between warm and cold can happen very abruptly. We'll probably be thawing out from the cold that takes over the US between March 1-7. MJO is in it's wet phases too so consider that as well.

[opticsguy]

NAM 0z has upper teens for DFW Monday morning. There goes the peas and beets that just came up. That also means mid March for the ground to be warm enough for tomatoes, which means a short growing season again.

[orangeblood]

Awfully quiet around here considering a potential high impact Texas winter storm is less than 3 days away.....

[TheProfessor]

yeah, the nam has the cold coming in much earlier on Sunday. I has 1-2 inches of snow right around the I-35 corridor. The nam has a lot less precip for us though. If you were to mix the precip from the GFS with the timing and magnitude of the nam's cold, The Metroplex might be in trouble on Sunday.

[Ntxw]

yeah, the nam has the cold coming in much earlier on Sunday. I has 1-2 inches of snow right around the I-35 corridor. The nam has a lot less precip for us though. If you were to mix the precip from the GFS with the timing and magnitude of the nam's cold, The Metroplex might be in trouble on Sunday.

This is a good observation. If the GFS is off on it's placement by just some you have a very heavy winter precip event.

0z GFS stacks the cold air like crazy. This air mass is just going to plow.

[ravyrn]

Meteogram for DFW via 18z GFS.

Also, I tried to upload it from my account and it seems I have to upgrade to premium to upload any more photos onto my account. The link in the bottom-center of the posting window still works, however. Please stop by this thread to discuss the changes to imageshack.

[Lagreeneyes03]

McCauley just mentioned it on the NAM showing ice storm on FB as well --he'll have his stat method run on the situation probably by the end of the night.

Thunder-ice??

[TheProfessor]

McCauley just mentioned it on the NAM showing ice storm on FB as well --he'll have his stat method run on the situation probably by the end of the night.

Thunder-ice??

shh! You cant say that. Whenever thunder ice/snow starts getting talked about my friend gets his hope's up. And when he gets his hope's up nothing ever happens!