Model Wars eastcoast style! ETA vs GFS! 06z

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

You wrote, "This is going to be really interesting for me here in Southern NJ, that's for sure!"

An excellent point. Model run by model run some are either ready to break open the champagne while others are all but mourning.

While there has been a decided trend on some models in favor of suppression, one would do well to recall that a similar trend had seemed to establish itself a few days prior to the Presidents Day Snowstorm e.g., 2/12 18Z GFS--ironically at roughly a similar distance from the event in terms of timing. Moreover, bear in mind that this was also a question of two waves. Of course, there were some differences, too, but the important point is that there is uncertainty and fluctuations in the modeling might not be revealing much of value at this time.

Overall, at this time of uncertainty, one is probably better served by holding with the more consistent models than those that have been most erratic especially as some model support (e.g., the GGEM) for a decent event in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast remains intact.

Tonight's run of the all-consistent ECMWF will be revealing.

For now, the suppression chorus of the GFS and UKMET notwithstanding, I have no major changes in my thinking.

[wxid]

Hey King, looks like my first 'jip of the season' coming. You remember these storms , dont ya? No wonder you moved, it always the same thing! ARRRGGGGGH !
Wxid (SBY, MD)

[Guest]

Hey King, looks like my first 'jip of the season' coming. You remember these storms , dont ya? No wonder you moved, it always the same thing! ARRRGGGGGH !
Wxid (SBY, MD)

I wouldnt exactly say that yet! Yea i will say you wont get the big amounts but i think you should get a few inches out of this atleast. (More so towards the end of the event instead of the begining as is normally the case!

Quick note on the 12z and 18z GFS - ETA are holding ground with each of thier runs. Im still siding with the ETA as it still has the most support from the others. This is odd seeing each model hold its own for this long and yet differ???

[StormCrazyIowan]

Your first jip wxid?? Yesterday was my third!!! LOL Not to mention the last two seasons but who's counting!! ROFL

[wxid]

Your first jip wxid?? Yesterday was my third!!! LOL Not to mention the last two seasons but who's counting!! ROFL

....at least you get alot more chances! LOL Its usually 3-5 chances all winter here, with a 90% jip rate. I am on the Delmarva Penisula, so its very diff than DC corridors' wx.
Wxid

[NCWeatherChic]

LOL
People are going to go crazy here tomorrow. Glad I did my shopping today!
This board is getting on my nerves. It keeps makin' me login every other page so I can't see any replies. So hopefully I'm not double posting.