Texas Winter 2015-2016

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This weather is absolutely disgusting. Ready for his cold front!

[TheProfessor]

12z Euro is Faster, but further north east this run.

[TexasF6]

GGEM has a prolonged ice storm for Central Texas next weekend......I still need snow please!!!!!

[TheProfessor]

I'm wondering if this weekend storm fails to give us wintery weather if a baroclinic boundary will set up north of us allowing for the once in a century storm on the cmc to occur.

[TheProfessor]

850 temps on this Euro run seem to be colder for 12z Monday.

[Ntxw]

I'm wondering if this weekend storm fails to give us wintery weather if a baroclinic boundary will set up north of us allowing for the once in a century storm on the cmc to occur.

CMC looks like an overruning set up with a stalled trof to the west. We will have cold air already in place throughout next week. It's a matter of moisture return with the disturbances, STJ could provide that. A changeover for many will likely occur this weekend in my opinion, question is can it be measured?

Still though nothing is yet in stone for this weekend's system. Before any of that lots of rain will set up in the next 24 hours across the eastern half of the state

[Yukon Cornelius]

Found this on the book of faces.

[srainhoutx]

Stronger 1052mb Arctic High over Colorado Sunday is looking reasonable. I expected this temperature plunge to be a big shock after the warm weather. Those looking forward to colder weather that sticks around will not have to wait much longer. It appears that Santa is going to deliver a New Years present for all the cold weather lovers out there. The overnight teleconnection indices as well as the various computer schemes are indicating a cold and unsettled pattern shifts from the West to the Central and Eastern portions of the Lower 48. An anomalous Western Ridge develops along and offshore of the Pacific Coast Ridging well North into Alaska and Western Canada (+PNA/-EPO/-AO) allowing a significant pattern change as 2016 begins. The MJO forecasts (Phase7/8) continue to favor the solutions of the Western trough moving East with a split flow pattern of the Polar Jet nudging way up into the Arctic through Alaska as the pesky Aleutian low shift to the West allowing a trough to organize across the Great Plains diving S and E as well as bringing embedded disturbances out of the Pacific Ocean across Mexico into Texas and the Gulf Coast.

[Ntxw]

Stronger 1052mb Arctic High over Colorado Sunday is looking reasonable. I expected this temperature plunge to be a big shock after the warm weather. Those looking forward to colder weather that sticks around will not have to wait much longer. It appears that Santa is going to deliver a New Years present for all the cold weather lovers out there. The overnight teleconnection indices as well as the various computer schemes are indicating a cold and unsettled pattern shifts from the West to the Central and Eastern portions of the Lower 48. An anomalous Western Ridge develops along and offshore of the Pacific Coast Ridging well North into Alaska and Western Canada (+PNA/-EPO/-AO) allowing a significant pattern change as 2016 begins. The MJO forecasts (Phase7/8) continue to favor the solutions of the Western trough moving East with a split flow pattern of the Polar Jet nudging way up into the Arctic through Alaska as the pesky Aleutian low shift to the West allowing a trough to organize across the Great Plains diving S and E as well as bringing embedded disturbances out of the Pacific Ocean across Mexico into Texas and the Gulf Coast.

Great analysis srain. Have you seen the AO forecasts? Many members are showing a good consensus of a possible tank in the AO! EPO forced negative by the +PNA and noisy subtropical jet below

[srainhoutx]

Great analysis srain. Have you seen the AO forecasts? Many members are showing a good consensus of a possible tank in the AO! EPO forced negative by the +PNA and noisy subtropical jet below

I have. I posted them on the KHOU Board this morning. I am growing much more confident of a significant pattern change, particularly with the growing possibility of a real SSW event unfolding that will breakup the Polar Vortex that has been firmly anchored over the North Pole. This storm is the pattern changer and we likely will see several opportunities for wintry mischief and we turn the Calendar to 2016.

[kmc8264]

What is it looking like for SW OK near Lawton?

[Ntxw]

What is it looking like for SW OK near Lawton?

Blizzard, 4-8"

[Yukon Cornelius]

What is it looking like for SW OK near Lawton?

Blizzard, 4-8"

I'm guessing close to the same for Wichita/Clay county area?

[TheProfessor]

Judging by the temps NWS FWD are going with this week it wouldn't take as much to get snow or ice to accumulate next weekend if a cmc type storm happened.

[Ntxw]

I'm guessing close to the same for Wichita/Clay county area?

Yeah, I'd be conservative with 2-4" but wherever heavier bands sets up 6"+ totals would not be out of the question

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can i get a forecast for Ft. Lauderdale Florida?

Really though, its too dang hot here. Ready for the pattern change. Just after new years looks interesting.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is the Euro showing an icestorm for Texas next weekend? I cant tell based on the limited data.

[Brent]

A 1055 mb high over Colorado at the same time as the CMC storm

[JayDT]

:uarrow:

A 1055 mb high over Colorado at the same time as the CMC storm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... a_us_9.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... a_us_9.png

WOW! Those are some impressive maps! How cold are we talking?

[Brent]

:uarrow:

A 1055 mb high over Colorado at the same time as the CMC storm

WOW! Those are some impressive maps! How cold are we talking?

That likely will depend on if there's precip or not... sunny skies, probably 20s/40s... if there's precip, all bets are off...

for what it's worth... FWD is not backing off the snow chances on Monday: