Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cpv17]

Man, the CMC has a huge rain even for central Texas next week. None of the other models really show it though.

[Brent]

Euro favoring more towards Abilene down to Comanche, 3-5" there, not much in the metro proper

[TheProfessor]

Not many of the GEFS on ensembles on board, but there are a few, and it's more than the 18z. The few that do show snow, however, woo boy they're impressive. One of them shows 10"

[Ralph's Weather]

The fv gfs has a foot SW of Dallas almost nothing east of Dallas

Just goes to show how difficult forecast this will be if it remains with the snowy look

I’m kind of confused with these models right now cuz they’re showing accumulation when none of the models that I’ve looked at have surface temps at or below freezing...so how would it accumulate? Wouldn’t it just melt before it hits the ground?

Most snow storms around here feature temps in the 33 to 35 range can even be warmer if heavy enough. Any colder and the surface high has scoured the moisture out this far south in most instances.

[Brent]

06z NAM is mostly west of Dallas but has 16 inches between Wichita Falls and Gainesville and over a foot between Fort Worth and Abilene

[Captmorg70]

FWD NWS even called out the 6z Nam saying the “hype” will posted all over social media.

[northjaxpro]

The time is coming soon I feel for the snow drought to mercifully end for all in the Dallas area. This next potent ULL may finally do this late Thursday and Friday.


However, if it does not happen this week for all of you in the DFW metro, you all may just have your best shot at Christmas time, if the long range models are hinting on the right track with the pattern at that time. Old Man Winter just may give you all across much of Texas quite a snowy, white Christmas.You all could have lots to chat about now right on through the next couple of weeks.

Just hope for things to come together like the very long range GFS is showing this morning. Lots will change of course, given that it is up to 2 weeks out....

[Cerlin]

Major Christmas Snowstorm for lots of Texas on the 6z GFS! I’m sure it won’t be there by the 12z, but...

[bubba hotep]

FWD has introduced rain/snow mix to the grids.

[northjaxpro]

The models did fairly well with the Southern Appalachians/NC/VA. Winter Storm from this past weekend. They had the storm progged well from 10 -12 days out. I tracked the entire evolution of that storm on the Deep South thread.

So, let's see how the models perform with this potential Christmas storm .

Hey, keep the faith.....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Major Christmas Snowstorm for lots of Texas on the 6z GFS! I’m sure it won’t be there by the 12z, but...

Lock the doors and throw away the key, NOW!

[Captmorg70]

Major Christmas Snowstorm for lots of Texas on the 6z GFS! I’m sure it won’t be there by the 12z, but...

Lock the doors and throw away the key, NOW!

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018121106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

Let the Hype Begin

[bubba hotep]

Buckle Up!

[srainhoutx]

Guidance is suggesting winds may well be gusting 40 to close to 60 MPH as the compact vertically stacked storm traverses Texas. Folks in Oklahoma, North and possibly portions of Central Texas could see those higher gusts. Gales are likely along the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Travel issues are looking likely due to high winds and if you have plans on flying Thursday or Friday, you may need to re evaluated and plan for cancellations.

[bubba hotep]

Guidance is suggesting winds may well be gusting 40 to close to 60 MPH as the compact vertically stacked storm traverses Texas. Folks in Oklahoma, North and possibly portions of Central Texas could see those higher gusts. Gales are likely along the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Travel issues are looking likely due to high winds and if you have plans on flying Thursday or Friday, you may need to re evaluated and plan for cancellations.

We could see some High Wind Warnings hoisted. This is a very impressive system and any slow down could greatly increase the svr wx threat.

[rwfromkansas]

06z NAM track looks a lot like the last storm...all the snow mocking us west. Luckily the track will still change a lot.

[Haris]

[Ntxw]

12z nam is coming in deeper for the storm at 5h. This is approaching strength of Xmas eve 09 (different cold air surface)

[bubba hotep]

12nam is coming in deeper for the storm at 5h. This is approaching strength of Xmas eve 09 (different cold air surface)

And a tad slower or maybe that's just because it's digging more into West Texas vs riding the Red River.

[weatherdude1108]

They mention the wrap-around possibility (though low) for Thursday here.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 110859
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
259 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Mostly clear skies are ongoing across the region at the present time
with some high clouds beginning to move in across the western
counties overnight. Temperatures are cold once again with a light
freeze occurring for portions of the Hill Country. For today, the
weather should stay mostly quiet with these high clouds spreading to
the east. High temperatures today will range from near 60 to the
middle 60s across the area or a couple of degrees warmer than
yesterday.

After repeated days of northerly flow, southerly flow returns
tonight and this should lead to an increase in low-level moisture.
Low-clouds are expected to return tonight, and this in combination
with increasing dewpoints should only allow for temperatures to reach
the middle 40s to near 50 degrees. With this sudden increase in
overnight lows and moisture, there is always the possibility of fog,
but short-range models just have low-clouds and no fog. Will continue
to keep an eye on that possibility and update the forecast as
needed.

A lead subtropical shortwave is expected to move in from the
west by Wednesday afternoon. Models continue to only favor the
eastern counties for small precipitation chances in the late
afternoon hours. Moisture just does not enough time to build with the
brief return of southerly flow ahead of the system. Otherwise, highs
Wednesday will range from the lower 60s to upper 60s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Low rain chances will continue Wednesday evening as the previously
mentioned shortwave continues to move east across the area. PoPs will
range from 20-40 percent with the higher values in the eastern row of
counties. Overall, any rainfall is expected to be light with totals
expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. Any rainfall will
quickly exit the region by Thursday morning as a strong Pacific front
moves into the region. This front is in response to a dynamic upper
low moving into the Southern Plains from the northwest. The main
story with this upper low will be its associated wind field. The
pressure gradient is expected to be very tight and 850 mb winds will
approach 50-55 knots from the northwest. Forecast soundings show a
fairly dry profile which should allow for mostly clear skies. This
should help the strong winds mix down to the surface. Northwest winds
sustained between 25-40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
for the western half of the area with 25-30 sustained speeds with
gusts up to 40 mph possible for the eastern areas. Most, if not all,
the CWA will need a wind advisory for Thursday. The strong winds will
linger into Friday, but speeds should stay below criteria levels.

The focus of the forecast Thursday night and Friday turn to the path
of the center of the upper low and any possible wrap around
precipitation from the system. Most members of the guidance support
precipitation production wrapping around the closed low in this time
frame. Being such a dynamic system, the mid and upper level thermal
profiles will be cold and sufficient for snow production. However,
all models show surface temperatures being well above freezing which
would support melting if any precipitation were to occur. However,
with these dynamic upper lows, strange things can happen with rapid
cooling under precip areas and think there is a possibility of snow
somewhere in Texas with this system Thursday night and into Friday.
The latest 00z model consensus of the track of the upper low keeps it
well to our north which would equate to any snow possibility north of
our CWA with our area in a mid-level dry slot. However, the ECMWF
has been consistent and remains the one member of operational
guidance which tracks the low along our northern border with the FWD
CWA. This would far enough south for some of the wrap around precip
to affect our northern counties. Looking at the GFS ensembles, there
are about 2 of its members that have this southern track, while the
vast majority support its operational sibling. All this to say, we
will show a 20 PoP for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night for our
northern counties. Will keep the precip liquid as confidence is
highest that all precipitation will remain north of our area. In
addition, the overall chances for the surface temperatures to cool
sufficiently for any frozen precip to reach the surface is pretty low
and would be highly dependent on many factors that can`t be resolved
at this time.

Shortwave ridging returns behind this system for the weekend. Lows
Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Should see temperatures creep back up for Sunday and Monday.