Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Gotwood]

I hate to say it but the EPS usually does better than the GEFS from what I remember

If this pattern gets ruined by the +PNA I have no words anymore

We are due a -PNA it was + the whole month of Dec.

[Brent]

I hate to say it but the EPS usually does better than the GEFS from what I remember

If this pattern gets ruined by the +PNA I have no words anymore

We are due a -PNA it was + the whole month of Dec.

I agree but we've been due for a lot of things that haven't happened

[Gotwood]

I hate to say it but the EPS usually does better than the GEFS from what I remember

If this pattern gets ruined by the +PNA I have no words anymore

We are due a -PNA it was + the whole month of Dec.

I agree but we've been due for a lot of things that haven't happened

Agree on that I guess we will know our fate come new years or just after.

[Cpv17]

We are due a -PNA it was + the whole month of Dec.

I agree but we've been due for a lot of things that haven't happened

Agree on that I guess we will know our fate come new years or just after.

I think after the 10th of January is when things could get most interesting for us.

[Ntxw]

I agree but we've been due for a lot of things that haven't happened

Agree on that I guess we will know our fate come new years or just after.

I think after the 10th of January is when things could get most interesting for us.

I think a true jet retraction will occur the last half of the month when the MJO is truly on the left-bottom phases 8-1-2 etc for big PNA shift. It would be nice for some areas to cash in with a decent shortwave diving down the front range with the right angle, can give it a pass in December but in January finding a way helps instead of slipping again before then during transition period. These types of patterns in the past have delivered some snow for the northern regions of Southern Plains, if it fails yet again we're just not siding well with cold fringes.

CPC 6-10 analogs - many of these delivered wintry precip.

1966-12/24
2009-12/21
1958-01/18
2000-12/28
1959-12/28
1966-01/15
1995-12/19
19750-12/29
1960-01/19
2009-12/26

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Agree on that I guess we will know our fate come new years or just after.

I think after the 10th of January is when things could get most interesting for us.

I think a true jet retraction will occur the last half of the month when the MJO is truly on the left-bottom phases 8-1-2 etc for big PNA shift. It would be nice for some areas to cash in with a decent shortwave diving down the front range with the right angle, can give it a pass in December but in January finding a way helps instead of slipping again before then during transition period. These types of patterns in the past have delivered some snow for the northern regions of Southern Plains, if it fails yet again we're just not siding well with cold fringes.

Yes. I've been saying the troughs have been too far east as of late. A retraction should help but don't want it too much imo. I'm hoping the pdo being less negative will help keep it from being too warm also

[wxman22]

Some decent rain moving into North Texas this morning.

[Ntxw]

I think after the 10th of January is when things could get most interesting for us.

I think a true jet retraction will occur the last half of the month when the MJO is truly on the left-bottom phases 8-1-2 etc for big PNA shift. It would be nice for some areas to cash in with a decent shortwave diving down the front range with the right angle, can give it a pass in December but in January finding a way helps instead of slipping again before then during transition period. These types of patterns in the past have delivered some snow for the northern regions of Southern Plains, if it fails yet again we're just not siding well with cold fringes.

Yes. I've been saying the troughs have been too far east as of late. A retraction should help but don't want it too much imo. I'm hoping the pdo being less negative will help keep it from being too warm also

Too far east isn't necessarily all bad. If there is enough cold expanse and the right diving energy you can get snow. In fact, it's probably a higher odds event (for snow) than too cold. If you live near the coast +PNA is actually your best bet. But we can't get enough cold to spill into them right now. Hopefully this changes in the new year.

[gpsnowman]

Some decent rain moving into North Texas this morning.

Yep. Starting to get thundery here. Hopefully the previously discussed "winter after thunder"(or whatever it is) holds true.

[Ntxw]

Some decent rain moving into North Texas this morning.

Yep. Starting to get thundery here. Hopefully the previously discussed "winter after thunder"(or whatever it is) holds true.

There's some model mischief hinting around about 1 week from now.

[Stratton23]

Man if the GFS is right with that 500 mb height configuration, that just screams a massive arctic outbreak,

[snownado]

A repeat of Christmas Eve today with more T'Storms and Flash Flooding...

[gpsnowman]

A repeat of Christmas Eve today with more T'Storms and Flash Flooding...

Cold or not this is some beautiful rain moving through.

[jasons2k]

Keep close watch south and east of this mesovortex as it tracks NE.

[jasons2k]

Tornado Watch Number 715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme west central Louisiana East central and southeast Texas Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected across southeast Texas through the afternoon/evening, and storms will spread northeastward into east central Texas. The storm environment will support the potential for several tornadoes, including a strong (EF2+) tornado or two, along with large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north of Lufkin TX to 15 miles west of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035.

...Thompson

[Stratton23]

Ensemble’s trending toward a much stronger + PNA, im just about done, this is a joke

[Brent]

Ensemble’s trending toward a much stronger + PNA, im just about done, this is a joke

I was afraid of that. Never bet against the EPS

I don't understand why ever since 2022 our pattern has been so bad consistently over and over again. The couple times it did snow there was no moisture left or temps were blazing. I will never get it

[Stratton23]

Brent I domt either, but im just over it looking good in the long range, before trending toward crap when you get closer in time, once you get stuck in a persistent + PNA pattern, its very difficult to change that, i wouldnt be surprised if we are the 70’s during the time that the ensembles “were” showing cold lol

[Brent]

Brent I domt either, but im just over it looking good in the long range, before trending toward crap when you get closer in time, once you get stuck in a persistent + PNA pattern, its very difficult to change that, i wouldnt be surprised if we are the 70’s during the time that the ensembles “were” showing cold lol

2 months in a row everyone hyped the pattern and it goes to trash im just over it

[Stratton23]

Brent yeah now ensembles look absolutely terrible now, im already preparing for shorts weather in january lol, we can never get a good trend nowadays