Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Regardless of when it happens, these giant ridges parking themselves over Texas 4-5 times a year for weeks on end are a very bad long term trend. We can’t sustain this pattern of going a month-plus without rain and then getting a deluge. Isn’t this how deserts start to form?

Right and I don't like that pattern around Alaska and there's been years it never breaks... Even up here...

And the New Years timeframe while cooler is still way above normal and dry right now

[wxman57]

Looks like we will finish out December on quite a warm note. No white Christmas for much of the country. Even in Chicago with all the recent snow may get into the low 40s on Christmas. Upper 70s to low 80s here in Houston next week. Great for cycling. If it's not going to snow in Houston, then it might as well be 80 degrees for Christmas. Upper-level flow pattern through December is not one to support any major push of cold air southward to the Gulf coast. It's going to take a major pattern change for that to happen. Of course, it's not even officially winter yet. A lot can happen in January and February.

[Stratton23]

Im starting to target around the 27th for a change in the pattern of potentially at least re introducing rain chances, still will be some time before it gets cold again, but all models GFS/ Euro/ AIFS, CMC all agree on some sort of storm system moving in from the west, SE ridge gets suppressed to more of a neutral look, their are some chinks in this patterns armor

[rwfromkansas]

I hate the feeling of addiction that comes from refreshing the page to see if something has changed. Lol. Hoopefully we will see some stuff start to align for mid-January. The goalposts keep getting pushed.

[Stratton23]

After looking at todays model runs, their seems to be decent agreement in the models for some sort of storm system to eject out of baja california and across texas sometime around the 28th ish , i believe thats the storm system that should be the key driver in causing a change in the upper air pattern over north america, im still not getting hopes up just yet for rain, but their definitely is reason to be optimistic that this big SE ridge of death pattern isnt here to stay long term