Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Haris]

Our next plume of moisture moving in...

[Brent]

To convey just how bad the snow drought at DFW has become over the past 3 years....Over the last 3 years, DFW has recorded 0.1 inch measurable snowfall - with around 2 inches per year of average snowfall, that comes out to 1.67% of normal 3 yr snowfall.

According to my research: there isn't a place in the US and even every location outside the US I've looked at, averaging greater than 1 inch per year, that has received less of a % of normal snowfall than DFW. And I don't even think there's a close 2nd

We better get used to it. The 1980s climo will be lost in 2020 (1991-2020 is new dataset). 1990s, 2000s were unkind. The average will fall further. It dropped quite a bit when the 1970s were lost in the 2010 new climo set. The climate at DFW has changed. Average temps will rise as well in the new subset.

Sad times but I agree with this. Snow lovers might wanna look at leaving this area, I know I do.

Even on the east coast they've been talking about how the climate is changing with how extreme that ridge was this week.

[orangeblood]

To convey just how bad the snow drought at DFW has become over the past 3 years....Over the last 3 years, DFW has recorded 0.1 inch measurable snowfall - with around 2 inches per year of average snowfall, that comes out to 1.67% of normal 3 yr snowfall.

According to my research: there isn't a place in the US and even every location outside the US I've looked at, averaging greater than 1 inch per year, that has received less of a % of normal snowfall than DFW. And I don't even think there's a close 2nd

We better get used to it. The 1980s climo will be lost in 2020 (1991-2020 is new dataset). 1990s, 2000s were unkind. The average will fall further. It dropped quite a bit when the 1970s were lost in the 2010 new climo set. The climate at DFW has changed. Average temps will rise as well in the new subset.

Sad times but I agree with this. Snow lovers might wanna look at leaving this area, I know I do.

Even on the east coast they've been talking about how the climate is changing with how extreme that ridge was this week.

Of course the climate is changing, always has and always will...IMO, the correct term is that the climate cycles - this portion of the climate cycle is very similar to the 1930 40 50's and coincidently is the last time we saw a snow drought such as this. This notion that we've never seen something like this before is extremely presumptuous and short-sighted considering records only go back a few hundred years and satellite records just a few decades

[Ntxw]

Of course the climate is changing, always has and always will...IMO, the correct term is that the climate cycles - this portion of the climate cycle is very similar to the 1930 40 50's and coincidently is the last time we saw a snow drought such as this. This notion that we've never seen something like this before is extremely presumptuous and short-sighted considering records only go back a few hundred years and satellite records just a few decades

It doesn't matter how we put it. The numbers are the numbers. DFW's 1991-2020 climate subset will be warmer than the subset of 1931-1950 or 1941-1960

[Ntxw]

Also FW put out a chart today on top winter rainfall. 2017-2018 at DFW currently stands at #9 10.77"

[Brent]

Also FW put out a chart today on top winter rainfall. 2017-2018 at DFW currently stands at #9 10.77"

At least its been wet, things aren't completely bleak at least

[downsouthman1]

March 20-21, 2010
An unusually strong and cold upper level low slowly moved along the Red River Valley on March 20 and 21. Heavy snowfall occurred on the backside of the low with measurable snowfall occurring mainly to the north of I-20. A very localized and heavy band of snow developed during the early morning hours of the 21st, dumping 5 to 9 inches of snow across Collin County.
Some locations just 20 miles to the southwest of this band of snow only picked up 1 inch. Snow continued into the early afternoon hours on the 21st across East Texas before ending.

March 6-7, 2008
Rain changed over to heavy snow and thundersnow during the late morning hours in areas northwest of the DFW Metroplex. Decatur and Gainesville reported 9 inches of snow with this event.
A stationary rain/snow line resulted in dramatically different snow totals across the Metroplex. Northern Tarrant County had up to 7 inches of snow, DFW recorded only 1.1 inches, and much of the Metroplex saw less than 1 inch. More light snow developed across the eastern Metroplex and into Northeast Texas in the early morning hours of March 7, but amounts were less than 1 inch.

March 3, 2008
An upper level low produced snow for most areas along and north of I-20 where amounts generally ranged from a trace to 3 inches. A localized intense band of heavy snow centere dover Grayson County produced as much as 6 inches of snow. DFW recorded 1 inch.

April 7-8, 2007
Snow fell in areas south of I-20 during the daytime hours of the Saturday before Easter. The highest amounts of 3 to5 inches were found in a band from Comanche and Goldthwaite to Waco and Temple/Killeen. Bluebonnets were already in bloom when this snow fell, making for unique pictures of this event.

March 27, 2005
An upper level low produced a very localized narrow band of 1-2 inches of snow from Graham to Weatherford to Benbrook to Cleburne in the predawn hours of Easter morning. Most areas outside the snow band saw only moderate to heavy rain.

I remember the 2007 event as I was living in Killeen at the time. It was a narrow band of snow that developed just west and basically moved east while backbuilding. It essentially trained a long duration snow band over the same areas. People just 50 miles north and south saw hardly anything but where I lived, it dropped 5" of snow that accumulated on everything, including roads. That said, after the last flake, it pretty much all melted within 18-24 hours. It was an afternoon and evening snowfall event. The next morning, I got plenty of snow driving experience in my 425 horsepower Mach 1 Mustang that I owned at the time. Time of my life. It was so much fun driving that car in snow!

[bubba hotep]

Latest thinking from FWD for early morning into the afternoon tomorrow:

[bubba hotep]

March 20-21, 2010
An unusually strong and cold upper level low slowly moved along the Red River Valley on March 20 and 21. Heavy snowfall occurred on the backside of the low with measurable snowfall occurring mainly to the north of I-20. A very localized and heavy band of snow developed during the early morning hours of the 21st, dumping 5 to 9 inches of snow across Collin County.
Some locations just 20 miles to the southwest of this band of snow only picked up 1 inch. Snow continued into the early afternoon hours on the 21st across East Texas before ending.

March 6-7, 2008
Rain changed over to heavy snow and thundersnow during the late morning hours in areas northwest of the DFW Metroplex. Decatur and Gainesville reported 9 inches of snow with this event.
A stationary rain/snow line resulted in dramatically different snow totals across the Metroplex. Northern Tarrant County had up to 7 inches of snow, DFW recorded only 1.1 inches, and much of the Metroplex saw less than 1 inch. More light snow developed across the eastern Metroplex and into Northeast Texas in the early morning hours of March 7, but amounts were less than 1 inch.

March 3, 2008
An upper level low produced snow for most areas along and north of I-20 where amounts generally ranged from a trace to 3 inches. A localized intense band of heavy snow centere dover Grayson County produced as much as 6 inches of snow. DFW recorded 1 inch.

April 7-8, 2007
Snow fell in areas south of I-20 during the daytime hours of the Saturday before Easter. The highest amounts of 3 to5 inches were found in a band from Comanche and Goldthwaite to Waco and Temple/Killeen. Bluebonnets were already in bloom when this snow fell, making for unique pictures of this event.

March 27, 2005
An upper level low produced a very localized narrow band of 1-2 inches of snow from Graham to Weatherford to Benbrook to Cleburne in the predawn hours of Easter morning. Most areas outside the snow band saw only moderate to heavy rain.

I'm really disappointed by all the white flag waving in this thread today but the post above is a great to reminder that all is not lost! I looked at the events listed and added March 2015. Generally, the themes were -NAO/-EPO with the big exception being 2008. After removing 2008, the other 4 events all either had a -EPO on the day of the event or had an -EPO in the days leading up to the event. Then of those 4, there are two solid -NAO events in '05 & '07, then '10 was a transition event with -NAO in the days leading up to the event but positive on the day of the event, and '15 was a +NAO.

All 4 events on day of event:



Events with solid -NAO on day of event:



The models are now indicating that we will get a -EPO during the 1st week of March and that the there will be a -NAO. The models were too fast to develop the -NAO and are probably breaking it down too fast. I'm still all in on winter returning snow to N. Texas during March.

[downsouthman1]

That's an awful lot of moisture coming out of Mexico right now.

[Haris]

That's an awful lot of moisture coming out of Mexico right now.

He is right

[Ralph's Weather]

So far this season has been really odd in that areas north of I20 and west of I35 have not really had snow while the rest of us have. The snow drought (really overall drought) for Amarillo is much more remarkable to me than the unlucky near misses at DFW this winter. We started the winter in La Nina which brought early winter cold and snow to the state and now we are in a semi El Nino pattern which tends to bring late season cold and snow. DFW still has a shot at snow. You have to think that Amarillo will also cash in before long, NM finally has started piling up the snow. The Panhandle can get snow in well into April.

[Ntxw]

Very heavy rain this morning at DFW. Thunderstorm in the core with thunder and pouring. The airport is closing in on 6" for the month wowza.

[1900hurricane]

A friend of mine said he had some golf ball sized hail in Haslet this morning.

*EDIT: He just told me he was EXPECTING the hail, not that he observed it.

[EnnisTx]

Nice frog strangler this morning with lightning and booming thunder.

[1900hurricane]

I just looked at the monthly climate data for CLL. In spite of only having six days this month without at least a trace of rainfall, we're actually running 0.76" below normal. Ugh.

[opticsguy]

An inch of rain in 12 minutes here in N. Dallas. The dewpoint rose so quickly that the outside of my windows are fogged. Just hit 10" of rain for the week.

[srainhoutx]

We folks in S Central and SE Texas will need to monitor the chances of heavy rainfall and possibly some elevated training thunderstorms tonight into Sunday as a very slow moving cool front approach this evening. A skinny line of thunderstorms look to approach our Northern Zones this evening, but a series of embedded disturbances riding along that very noisy sub tropical jet look to cross the SE Texas area tonight where heavy rainfall may focus along and S of the front before transitioning further inland tomorrow morning and possibly throughout the day and evening hours. While widespread flood concerns are minimal, there are suggestions from some of our higher resolution shorter range guidance that some locations could pick up 1-3 inch amounts, possibly higher where training storms do occur. There are a lot of outdoor activities underway with the Rodeo in town, so stay weather aware and have alternate plans should our weather turn wet and stormy.

[bubba hotep]

We got hammered again this morning with small hail and heavy rain. This has been a pretty crazy stretch!

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see the return of chilly and possibly wet weather the first full week of March in the longer range GEFS Ensemble schemes. The Teleconnection Indices continue to advertise a extremely negative Arctic Oscillation and extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation as a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that happen last week. This sort of Northern Hemispheric Blocking pattern is capable of ushering in much colder air across a large expanse of North America including Texas.