Texas Winter 2013-2014

[txtiff]

How about Kaufman county? How much accumulation could we see?

[South Texas Storms]

And not to skip everyone else, Those along the Red River is a sleet/snow but mostly sleet event. DFW would get a dosing of sleet ontop of the ice after the FRZR. The freezing rain extends to the northern burbs of Austin (as far as the first storm).

And the second round on the GFS for Saturday shows the freezing rain making it as far south as San Antonio.

[Ntxw]

And not to skip everyone else, Those along the Red River is a sleet/snow but mostly sleet event. DFW would get a dosing of sleet ontop of the ice after the FRZR. The freezing rain extends to the northern burbs of Austin (as far as the first storm).

And the second round on the GFS for Saturday shows the freezing rain making it as far south as San Antonio.

Yep the maps just loaded on precip type amounts on wxbell. Certainly does.

[Texas Snowman]

So it's called Winter Storm Cleon? Hmmmm......

No, no, no, no!!! NO! We at Storm2K do not do that naming winter storm crap over here. We have integrity. We have dignity.

We've got dignity over here? Really? I didn't know that!

[gboudx]

DFW NWS has a good update tonight. It's long so I didn't want to post it. I'm sure most here know where to find it.

[Portastorm]

So it's called Winter Storm Cleon? Hmmmm......

No, no, no, no!!! NO! We at Storm2K do not do that naming winter storm crap over here. We have integrity. We have dignity.

We've got dignity over here? Really? I didn't know that!

There's one in every bunch.

C'mon Snowman, help me out.

[Texas Snowman]

Sorry sir, it's late. I'll do better next time!

[HockeyTx82]

So at what point can say we we are locked in with some certainty of what could happen. I understand things can change last second, but when do we say it's going to happen? What model run do we need to be waiting for and or looking at? Is that question even one that can be answered?

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley keeps saying when we're within 24 hours. He says the next model data sets should be the most accurate.

[TheProfessor]

Unfortunately, the latest GFS Skew T for DFW is still showing 850-800 mb temps hovering around 4-6 deg C for the duration of the heaviest precip....not good, not good at all

It's putting down 0.5 to 1+ of FRZR for the entire metro. The biggest amounts are the eastplexers.

Not that I see.. Its putting 1.0+ QPF all the way in Eastland county.. 1.25 in the Metro and over 1.5 in the eastaplex.. That is what I have in the high res as well...

Where is the eastaplex?

[Ntxw]

So at what point can say we we are locked in with some certainty of what could happen. I understand things can change last second, but when do we say it's going to happen? What model run do we need to be waiting for and or looking at? Is that question even one that can be answered?

This is a little more than model runs. As gboudx just posted referencing the NWS FW wording tonight. It's a very in depth idea, the models are busting left and right on temperatures and have been since Monday. The cold is going to be there, whatever falls is going to freeze. We are waiting now for the rain shields to show so we can pinpoint where the heaviest qpf will be and that's where the battle lies right now between a devasting ice storm and a bad one.

The GFS has North Texas and Central Arkansas as ground zero. The NAM is cold, it's just been moving the qpf shield around.

[weatherdude1108]

Texas Storm Chasers post:

http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2013/1 ... y-evening/

[dhweather]

Cat 5 in the Gulf!


Whoops, wrong thread and season.


A little laugh before things likely get very serious in a bad way.

[ravyrn]

Every now and then the GFS just loves to tease me! lol

http://s61.photobucket.com/user/cantu59 ... 9367e4.png

I know this isn't the sw/se LA forum, which is dead by the way, but our nws office is not even forecasting rain for that time period. Highs in the mid to low 50's and lows in the upper 30's. Is this the first run showing anything like this over here?

Maybe a brief period of freezing rain or sleet on Tuesday morning for BR per the GFS.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Texas Snowman]

Cat 5 in the Gulf!


Whoops, wrong thread and season.


A little laugh before things likely get very serious in a bad way.

Which reminds me - just got a book from Amazon on a Cat 5 in the Gulf. "Roar of the Heavens" on Hurricane Camille. Think I'll go read a chapter of two and call it a night. And wake up early tomorrow and see if North Texas is still ground zero for Icemageddon.

[downsouthman1]

So at what point can say we we are locked in with some certainty of what could happen. I understand things can change last second, but when do we say it's going to happen? What model run do we need to be waiting for and or looking at? Is that question even one that can be answered?

I don't think any one model can forecast this correctly. The cold air is arriving much faster than a lot of the models have initialized. But I got burned with the last storm, so I have nothing much else to say.

[Ntxw]

I don't think any one model can forecast this correctly. The cold air is arriving much faster than a lot of the models have initialized. But I got burned with the last storm, so I have nothing much else to say.

No worries dude, take it from me and Porta we all bust all the time! I've done it countless times! There is no reward/punishment for being right or wrong, only learning and knowledge. If you have an opinion and have data, share it if you like.

If it gets bad we can blame Jim Cantore. He could've gone to Little Rock after all!

[jerryh421]

Where can I go to view the GFS on precip type?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ravyrn,

Thanks for that. Appreciate it. Guess our guys will come around this weekend or early next week if models continue to show this, which isnt much by the way

[downsouthman1]

Don't look now, but Bowie's already down to 37 degrees. 49 at Fort Worth Alliance. Below freezing Dewpoints in Bridgeport & Decatur.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw