Texas Winter 2015-2016

[JayDT]

:uarrow:

A 1055 mb high over Colorado at the same time as the CMC storm

WOW! Those are some impressive maps! How cold are we talking?

That likely will depend on if there's precip or not... sunny skies, probably 20s/40s... if there's precip, all bets are off...

for what it's worth... FWD is not backing off the snow chances on Monday:

Im hoping there will be precip. I wouldnt want all that cold air to go to waste.

Yea i saw them tweet that picture a few minutes ago. Theyre not backing off at all. I thought they would back off on the snow chances at least a bit.

[JayDT]

Im not too good at all this, but at least to me it looks like the 18z GFS is trending a little better for DFW... Or am I completely wrong?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

18Z GFS is slightly further south and deepens the surface low across northeastern Texas/southeastern Oklahoma, which enhances the trowal feature.

[JayDT]

I really hope that low tracks further south and east. I just want some snow.

[JayDT]

They already put a Blizzard Warning out in the Lubbock area.

[Brent]

some brief flakes at the end but most of the snow is west of the metro:

[TheProfessor]

Is it realistic to have precipitation next week? Because I know that when it gets to cold sometimes it becomes too dry for anything to happen.

[Brent]

Is it realistic to have precipitation next week? Because I know that when it gets to cold sometimes it becomes too dry for anything to happen.

The GFS keeps the rain confined way to the south at mid week and has a high pressure near Amarillo at the same time the CMC has a raging winter storm... (there's literally no precip in the country then except for right along the east coast and Florida from an exiting front) We'll see how that goes....

But yeah... a lot of times there is no precip when it's that cold and I wouldn't be surprised if it stays cold and dry, or warms up and rains... I've lived in the south all my life, I'm used to it

[Ntxw]

Is it realistic to have precipitation next week? Because I know that when it gets to cold sometimes it becomes too dry for anything to happen.

It can happen if the subtropical jet pokes it's nose back up. Sneaky upper and mid level moisture from the Pacific is not unheard of during El Nino's here. Might have to overcome so dry lower levels

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Does it appear the system is digging further south on satellite than the models are initiating? It looks like it to me but maybe it's wishful thinking.

The RAP is definitely digging it further south than the NAM or GFS.

[Portastorm]

They already put a Blizzard Warning out in the Lubbock area.

Yes, many of the NWSFOs in the western part of the state are using words like "historic" and "crippling" for the winter storm they're about to experience. Anyone from Midland/Odessa to Lubbock to Amarillo looks to get hammered ... weatherwise, that is.

[Ntxw]

It looks like we are getting a sudden stratospheric warming event in early January so the North American warmth will be reversed especially southern tier. However with more tendency of -EPO might even get the norther tier involved. -AO forecast are starting to be believable and possibly sustained. 1965-1966 saw such a flip

[wxman57]

WOW! Those are some impressive maps! How cold are we talking?

12Z Euro temps are 25-28 for lows in the D-FW metroplex the 2nd/3rd. Low 20s to teens from Weatherford to Abiliene.

Looking at the ice accumulation map on WxBell, it has 1.26" of freezing rain in SW Oklahoma over the weekend That would be bad.

[TXdaddy217]

Winter Storm Warning issued for Abilene area by San Angelo NWS. Possible 4-6 inches or higher snow predicted. The Blizzard Warning is only one county away to the NW. Getting interesting in this area.

[gatorcane]

Can i get a forecast for Ft. Lauderdale Florida?

Really though, its too dang hot here. Ready for the pattern change. Just after new years looks interesting.

Sure, low 76F and 84F tomorrow with dewpoints about 72-73F with plenty of humidity and 100% chance of mosquitoes.

But the pattern change is coming it appears so even Florida looks to cool down first week in January.
You folks in Texas look to see some really cold weather and quite a storm too. The 12Z ECMWF is . I see the GFS is just scraping Dallas/Ft Worth with light snow but it looks like severe weather potential even if there is no wintry stuff?

[JDawg512]

Merry Christmas everyone! I just got back from my uncle and aunt's ranch out past Llano. Wasn't as warm as what it got in Austin but it did get into the upper 60s. Had a short sleeve shirt on and felt great... if this was March or April lol.

[Texas Snowman]

Merry Christmas everyone! Hope you had a blessed day with family and friends!!!

[weatherdude1108]

Merry Christmas all! Having a great time with family in SA. Traveling back to Austin tomorrow morning.

[TheProfessor]

0z CMC Has one of those storms that go snow first then ice storm.

[TarrantWx]

0z CMC Has one of those storms that go snow first then ice storm.

That would be fun. Snow encrusted in ice is really pretty. I've seen it a couple of times in Iowa. Of course, it's 7-10 days out on the Canadian. Although that makes 2 runs in a row that show some type overrunning event on top of a cold airmass. The GFS shows cold air at the same time but has a different Upper Air pattern. The Canadian leaves a part of energy behind from the current Western Trough that moves to the east which then gets cut off over the southwest. The GFS pulls it through as a significantly positively tilted trough still attached to the main trough over the Eastern US. The cut-off low in the Canadian solution is clearly able to tap into much better moisture than the GFS's positively tilted trough. The key is what happens with the Western Trough as it moves east, does it leave a piece of energy behind?