Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

12z CMC is 1983 HP dome and cold . 1065 in Montana and single digits dropping into TX.

12z GFS snows across TX.

Good!! Sounds wonderful to me!

Pick your poison between the two runs. CMC 1983 dry cold or 12z GFS 2021 cold and snow.

Still though, not sure if this is the outcome. OP has been doing wonky runs with trajectory (we're past the phase is there cold air).

[wxman57]

I definitely like the 12Z GFS run for the 21-23. Major snow and ice storm for Texas/Louisiana - all the way down to south Texas. Yeah, I believe it... Every run has a different solution. I see no reason to believe any of them yet.

[Ntxw]

I definitely like the 12Z GFS run for the 21-23. Major snow and ice storm for Texas/Louisiana - all the way down to south Texas. Yeah, I believe it... Every run has a different solution. I see no reason to believe any of them yet.

Are you letting a bit of alter ego slip sir? .

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I definitely like the 12Z GFS run for the 21-23. Major snow and ice storm for Texas/Louisiana - all the way down to south Texas. Yeah, I believe it... Every run has a different solution. I see no reason to believe any of them yet.

Are you letting a bit of alter ego slip sir? .

I slipped into ChatGPT and tinkered with wxman57 persona

[Ntxw]

Mentioned a few days ago be wary of model runs that slips anything too far east or west. There are blocks (hence blocking) that the models try to jam air masses through, realistically unlikely. I'd say stay the course with analogs, as far as trajectory goes.

[wxman57]

Here it comes!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I definitely like the 12Z GFS run for the 21-23. Major snow and ice storm for Texas/Louisiana - all the way down to south Texas. Yeah, I believe it... Every run has a different solution. I see no reason to believe any of them yet.

I’ll give you 80s in February for this

[Iceresistance]

Here it comes!

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZGFSSNow.JPG

If I were you, I would start considering booking a flight to Australia or Florida!

[Iceresistance]

What kind of madness is this!? I'm sure that harp would go insane just by looking at this!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_53.png

[PTrackerLA]

Hi I've just witnessed the first below zero temp I've ever seen in a model for my area. What?!

[Kennethb]

Here in Baton Rouge I ad to put my jacket on just watch this run.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Texas storm next week is Feb '21 all over again.

[Iceresistance]

Texas storm next week is Feb '21 all over again.

No, it's even worse than February 2021, I've found 20 inches NNE of College Station near I-45 between Houston and DFW.

[Ntxw]

It does spawn from that record HP over the Arctic. Do we believe it? 1074mb? Hard to trust that number but impressive no less!



Feels like all these model runs are tossing around 1055-1070mb highs like toys every run .

[Iceresistance]

It does spawn from that record HP over the Arctic. Do we believe it? 1074mb? Hard to trust that number but impressive no less!

https://i.imgur.com/tQfiwtA.png

Feels like all these model runs are tossing around 1055-1070mb highs like toys every run .

At this rate, the lowest value would be "only" 1060 mb and the craziest would attempt to make a run for 1080 mb!

[vbhoutex]

It does spawn from that record HP over the Arctic. Do we believe it? 1074mb? Hard to trust that number but impressive no less!

https://i.imgur.com/tQfiwtA.png

Feels like all these model runs are tossing around 1055-1070mb highs like toys every run .

At this rate, the lowest value would be "only" 1060 mb and the craziest would attempt to make a run for 1080 mb!

DEFINITELY LALA LAND at this point, but it sure has my attention!

[Edwards Limestone]

We are getting within a week's range now...hard to dismiss imo.

[rwfromkansas]

It is 210 hours, not 240 or something, so I am paying a bit more attention. That said, I would be a bit steamed if central TX bullseyed like they have sometimes before. Lol. But, I think I would be happy with a foot. In any case, it's all going to change in the next run. Way too early to be looking at the potential storm aspect of this.

[Ntxw]

Natgas is rising pretty quick.

[Ntxw]

Trendline, if you've been following, each successive period has become colder (anomaly) as it draws closer. So to say the models may lose it, probably won't happen. We'll likely see them get colder as it gets closer, it's a hard blend far out with much spread to capture.