Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Sambucol]

00z ICON is by far the fastest model with the arctic air, entering texas at hour 180, and boy its a cold run, 00z CMC is also very cold, but much slower with the arctic air

This is sounding like a repeat of 2021. Or worse. Hopefully the grid will hold up.

[Harp.1]

This GFS run is weird. Completely different from the last few.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 its very common for models to lose the cold in this range, the global models, especially the GFS have a very difficult time handeling cold airmasses, especially arctic ones, the ensembles still look great, expect more flipping in the coming days

[cheezyWXguy]

00z ICON is by far the fastest model with the arctic air, entering texas at hour 180, and boy its a cold run, 00z CMC is also very cold, but much slower with the arctic air

This is sounding like a repeat of 2021. Or worse. Hopefully the grid will hold up.

Wayyyyy too early to speculate on that. Statistically, a repeat scenario is highly unlikely, so I’d keep a “believe it when I see it” attitude until the event is closer and models converge on a solution consistently, or else you’re very likely to be disappointed. If it’s going to happen, it will become clear in due time

[txtwister78]

00z ICON is by far the fastest model with the arctic air, entering texas at hour 180, and boy its a cold run, 00z CMC is also very cold, but much slower with the arctic air

While there is likely to be some fluctuation on timing going forward, it's important to note that the ICON typically does a good job in the medium range in terms of its handling of arctic air further south down into Texas. Keep in mind global models often struggle with the timing and overall impact of arctic airmasses further south down the plains into Texas. Some of that has to do with the Rockies as models tend to dam or "hold" arctic air too long as it moves south. We see it almost every winter. Still several days to watch, however. Happy New Year to all!

[Ntxw]

I like what I'm seeing from the ensembles. I think it's pretty clear a cold air mass is building up in Canada.

Naturally with energy diving into the west/southwest that SW-NE flow the ops try their hardest to hold up the surface air masses. The ingredients are slowly coming together for what will likely be several cold blasts and winter storms.

Happy New Year to S2k!

[Iceresistance]

 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1741546984413036629

Fixed it for you

[Cpv17]

 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1741546984413036629

Fixed it for you

Thanks man. Idk how to do that crap lol

[Stratton23]

I love the 00z GEFS, hangs some of the energy/trough back over the SW , thats what you want to see if you want a winter storm in the south

[Ntxw]

0z Euro has a blizzard.

[Cpv17]

0z GEFS is weird to me past 300 hours. It has ridging starting to form over FL and a big ridge that pops over the Aleutian Islands, which causes what looks to be a major -PNA, and a ton of troughing way out west.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro has a blizzard.

Looks a good bit further south than the 12z Euro.

[Harp.1]

0z Euro has a blizzard.

Where?

[Ntxw]

0z Euro has a blizzard.

Where?

Not for any of us on the surface importantly. But it is a very deep system crossing US.

[Cpv17]

This pattern looks freaking amped! Loving what I’m seeing. In a pattern like this, someone might get a storm that they’ll remember for a lifetime.

[Brent]

Tulsa already mentioning could be a changeover to snow with the day 8 storm

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything to indicate significant cold coming south in the next 10 days or more. I note that the 00Z GFS doesn't even have freezing temps in D-FW through the 16th. 06Z run has a light freeze in D-FW the 15th and 16th. Very fast zonal flow is not good for bringing Arctic air south. Nothing significant in the 00Z Euro, either. Pattern is good for producing precipitation, though, with snow as far south as Oklahoma.

[orangeblood]

0z Euro has a blizzard.

Where?

Not for any of us on the surface importantly. But it is a very deep system crossing US.

Yep, if this came anywhere close to verifying at 500mb a big portion of the southern plains will be buried in snow…plenty of cold enough air to tap into this time of year. Historically sub 540 across central Texas delivers 9 of 10 times

[Harp.1]

Is that a ULL?

[Ntxw]

Is that a ULL?

Yes, very rare to get that low that far south. There are only a handful of cases.