Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Harp.1]

Folks, I wouldn’t freak out just yet. Long range shows it, medium range takes it away, and it can return again.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 while this is true, when we have been stuck in a persistent + PNA pattern all winter, its really difficult to get that to change, im definitely losing faith that we are going to see much in january

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 while this is true, when we have been stuck in a persistent + PNA pattern all winter, its really difficult to get that to change, im definitely losing faith that we are going to see much in january

I’m still not throwing in the towel. We are still in December, gentlemen.

[Brent]

We've had flurries before January every year I've been here even as embarrassing as it was the last two years

Not this year I just don't understand anymore

I never imagined moving to Tulsa that winter would be this sad

[gboudx]

We've had flurries before January every year I've been here even as embarrassing as it was the last two years

Not this year I just don't understand anymore

I never imagined moving to Tulsa having this problem ever

The fine folks in Buffalo might appreciate you moving there to keep the lake effect snow away.

[Ntxw]

On the bright side DFW is now over 40" of rain for the year. For being in the most severe -PDO multi-year stretch, we have had plenty of rain. The late 2000s and early 2010s were brutal as was the 1950s.

Though it hasn't been evenly distributed by months, feast or famine sometimes. Nevertheless could have been much worse.

[Stratton23]

8-14 day outlook from noaa favors an even stronger + PNA, above normal temperatures for most of texas , all you can do is laugh at this point

[Harp.1]

Winter is not over. That’s just silly.

[snownado]

Between Christmas Eve and today, MBY has picked up easily 4" of rain.

[South Texas Storms]

On the bright side DFW is now over 40" of rain for the year. For being in the most severe -PDO multi-year stretch, we have had plenty of rain. The late 2000s and early 2010s were brutal as was the 1950s.

Though it hasn't been evenly distributed by months, feast or famine sometimes. Nevertheless could have been much worse.

This pattern still sucks for south and west Texas. 3rd straight year seeing widespread below normal rainfall across these areas. The rich get richer.

[Cpv17]

Harp.1 while this is true, when we have been stuck in a persistent + PNA pattern all winter, its really difficult to get that to change, im definitely losing faith that we are going to see much in january

It is what it is man. Can’t do anything about it. Maybe towards mid January we can get retraction and help send some of that colder air down here. It just hasn’t been our winter so far. +PNA has screwed us so far. Still got a good 2 months left so I’m not gonna give up yet.

[Texoz]

On the bright side DFW is now over 40" of rain for the year. For being in the most severe -PDO multi-year stretch, we have had plenty of rain. The late 2000s and early 2010s were brutal as was the 1950s.

Though it hasn't been evenly distributed by months, feast or famine sometimes. Nevertheless could have been much worse.

This pattern still sucks for south and west Texas. 3rd straight year seeing widespread below normal rainfall across these areas. The rich get richer.

Yep, start at Waco and draw two lines, one westward and one southward down I-35, and just about everyone in that South & West Texas area is looking eastward with jealously. Next summer could be brutal if next 6 months stay below normal for this area.

[Ntxw]

Harp.1 while this is true, when we have been stuck in a persistent + PNA pattern all winter, its really difficult to get that to change, im definitely losing faith that we are going to see much in january

It is what it is man. Can’t do anything about it. Maybe towards mid January we can get retraction and help send some of that colder air down here. It just hasn’t been our winter so far. +PNA has screwed us so far. Still got a good 2 months left so I’m not gonna give up yet.

MJO 6 isn't actually all that favorable, we need it in 7 and go quickly through to 8-1-2 where the trough pulls back. I guess that should've been a warning sign not to rush it on my part.

[Stratton23]

I do apologize with the over reaction by me as i do tend to ride the rollercoaster with the models sometimes, their definitely is still a lot of time for positive trends to happen, its just so easy to get frustrated when all the teleconnections line up except for the PNA, and you suddenly start seeing models sending the cold air east of texas, that PNA has been our worst enemy so far

[Brent]

I do apologize with the over reaction by me as i do tend to ride the rollercoaster with the models sometimes, their definitely is still a lot of time for positive trends to happen, its just so easy to get frustrated when all the teleconnections line up except for the PNA, and you suddenly start seeing models sending the cold air east of texas, that PNA has been our worst enemy so far

I mean there have been plenty of winters where nothing really happens til late January and February and even early March so clearly winter isn't over but I agree... I'm tired of the hype 2 weeks out and then nothing pans out. Even now talking about mid January like will anything get inside a week anytime this century

It just feels like events like Christmas 2009 and February 2011 will never happen again. I'm not even gonna touch 2021 we know that was rare

[Ntxw]

I do apologize with the over reaction by me as i do tend to ride the rollercoaster with the models sometimes, their definitely is still a lot of time for positive trends to happen, its just so easy to get frustrated when all the teleconnections line up except for the PNA, and you suddenly start seeing models sending the cold air east of texas, that PNA has been our worst enemy so far

Back in January 2021 we were sitting about the same circumstances. +PNA, MJO P5-6 sluggish. Central Texas did get a snow chance or two from the +PNA marginal event. Things did flip once the MJO and other factors shifted, but that did come at the heels of an SSW and prolific west based -NAO. Not saying we will do the same here, but it can still change.





Daily PNA for Dec 2020 to Jan 2021.

Code: Select all

2020 12  1  1.646
2020 12  2  1.985
2020 12  3  1.888
2020 12  4  1.739
2020 12  5  1.750
2020 12  6  1.944
2020 12  7  1.885
2020 12  8  1.371
2020 12  9  0.820
2020 12 10  0.467
2020 12 11  0.219
2020 12 12  0.178
2020 12 13  0.028
2020 12 14  0.183
2020 12 15  0.236
2020 12 16  0.258
2020 12 17  0.407
2020 12 18  0.476
2020 12 19  0.491
2020 12 20  0.570
2020 12 21  0.709
2020 12 22  0.889
2020 12 23  0.998
2020 12 24  0.970
2020 12 25  0.720
2020 12 26  0.469
2020 12 27  0.474
2020 12 28  0.612
2020 12 29  0.814
2020 12 30  0.617
2020 12 31  0.632
2021  1  1  0.858
2021  1  2  0.753
2021  1  3  0.845
2021  1  4  1.016
2021  1  5  1.273
2021  1  6  1.133
2021  1  7  0.857
2021  1  8  0.788
2021  1  9  0.853
2021  1 10  0.798
2021  1 11  0.672
2021  1 12  0.426
2021  1 13  0.383
2021  1 14  0.719
2021  1 15  0.965
2021  1 16  0.746
2021  1 17  0.455
2021  1 18  0.460
2021  1 19  0.355
2021  1 20  0.106
2021  1 21 -0.120
2021  1 22 -0.460
2021  1 23 -0.837
2021  1 24 -1.170
2021  1 25 -1.210
2021  1 26 -1.324
2021  1 27 -1.366
2021  1 28 -1.365
2021  1 29 -1.180
2021  1 30 -0.848
2021  1 31 -0.373
2021  2  1 -0.021
2021  2  2 -0.123
2021  2  3 -0.215
2021  2  4 -0.137
2021  2  5 -0.138
2021  2  6 -0.120
2021  2  7 -0.183
2021  2  8 -0.359
2021  2  9 -0.251

So if you were to track the MJO movement then the best sensible idea is that the PNA change will be week 2 and 3 of January and then perhaps the real cold for our neck of the woods will be seen after that. But of course Brent doesn't want to hear that, we need to cash in on a system or two with this +PNA.

[gpsnowman]

About this SSW, is it just a rumor or is it actually happening? Getting mixed signals with my limited knowledge. I know one played a huge part in 2021 with the normal lag time. Gotta tell you SSWs are fascinating to me. They play a huge role in winter whichever side of the globe it targets

[Ntxw]

About this SSW, is it just a rumor or is it actually happening? Getting mixed signals with my limited knowledge. I know one played a huge part in 2021 with the normal lag time. Gotta tell you SSWs are fascinating to me. They play a huge role in winter whichever side of the globe it targets

As far as I can tell a major mid winter SSW hasn't occurred. The S-PV (stratospheric vortex) has been disturbed a few times but still largely intact and zonal winds up there is pretty normal to strong. There is forecasted to be an attack from the Asian-Pacific side and then followed up with Atlantic heat flux, will that be enough? It's far out to mid January though if one were to occur.

[Stratton23]

So it looks like the cold in the 2nd week of january is primarily being driven by the WPO/ EPO and the Tropospheric Polar vortex, that is a feature that has been showing up on guidance the last several days, hopefully we can see more of a westward shift with the longwave trough

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/jefflindner1/status/18723 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

This just happened 10 min down the road from me. And I’m stuck at work so I couldn’t go chase. Sucks!