Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ravyrn]

Where can I go to view the GFS on precip type?

Weather Underground under model data. Select GFS and Precip Type. The maps recently posted are more detailed than wunderground, so perhaps they can post a link also.

[Ntxw]

Where can I go to view the GFS on precip type?

This is the easiest free site I can think of

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php

You'll have to dig on the list to SFC precip type

Last post of the night for me, this model watching stuff is starting too early this year . Here is what JB tweeted and seems fitting.


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

"Pick your poison storm for Texas/Oklahoma with plenty of ice I20- corridor, snow I 40. Skating rink or sledding. your choice"

[joshskeety]

Whatever you say, dont tell everyone how good the model data is.. As you will get 20 messages on here wondering why you are praising icemaggedon2013.. lol

[Texas Snowman]

Great. I'm at Ground Zero it appears.

Fort Worth NWS:

"THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WERE TO INCREASE ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-20.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION. EVEN DESPITE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RAIN DROPS THAT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THEY REACH THE GROUND...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LIKELY IN 20S ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WE ARE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT DENTON...COLLIN...COOKE...GRAYSON...AND FANNIN
COUNTIES WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ICING OF TREES IN THIS AREA WOULD LEAD TO LIMB BREAKAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS IN SOME COMMUNITIES. FURTHERMORE NOT ALL TREES HAVE LOST THEIR LEAVES YET WHICH WILL ADD TO TREE LIMB STRESS DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF MORE ICE."

[orangeblood]

With growing confidence that temps will be several degrees below freezing for the duration of the event across a big portion of North Texas, precip amounts are the biggest ? at this point. Tonights GFS and Canadian are very similar with their precip output while the NAM has the bulk of heaviest precip further southeast...below are the precip totals for all 3 models, still waiting on the Euro

GFS


Canadian


NAM


If you take a blend of all 3, the DFW metroplex and points northeast are Ground Zero.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm curious. The update from DFW's AFD mentions that the front is ahead of schedule and is more likely to bring the colder temps sooner. Since this is becoming increasingly likely at the surface, whats to stop this from occuring aloft? I think someone previously mentioned a warm nose of 4-6C, but what are the chances the models are overestimating the temps aloft as well, and it ends up being something like 2-3C? I would imagine this would result in sleet becoming the predominant precip type.

[Texas Snowman]

Latest from Steve McCauley's Facebook posting. Notice the possible low temps in Oklahoma next week...10 below zero?!? Wow.

"And the next data set is in and continues the notion of widespread sleet and freezing rain with much heavier ice amounts than the first data set I mentioned in my previous post. And this latest model starts the frozen precipitation much earlier - around sunset!

Again, these are just observations. I have not yet synthesized everything into an actual forecast, but I thought I would just share with you how the process works

By the way...this latest American model also continues the notion of building a McFarland Signature this weekend and plunges our temperatures into the teens here in the heat island of Dallas-Fort Worth while just across the border in east-central Oklahoma, temps fall to near 10 below zero !

Again, just an observation ... not a forecast:)

Oh yes, .... Looks like the Texas Tech Model continues to stand alone with its non-ice forecast. We shall see what it has to say when its latest run comes in.

[joshskeety]

I'm curious. The update from DFW's AFD mentions that the front is ahead of schedule and is more likely to bring the colder temps sooner. Since this is becoming increasingly likely at the surface, whats to stop this from occuring aloft? I think someone previously mentioned a warm nose of 4-6C, but what are the chances the models are overestimating the temps aloft as well, and it ends up being something like 2-3C? I would imagine this would result in sleet becoming the predominant precip type.

Nothing actually, I think this may be likely as well in the Northwest counties.. But even at 2-3c with a large nose in the metroplex it just will be ZR that will freeze even faster when it hits the surface.. The problem is the nose is 5,000 feet from about 9,000 feet to 4,000 feet.. What is needed for sleet is a smaller nose.. Say something 2,000 feet long or less.. from say 6,000 feet to 4,000 feet.. The shallower the warmer air, the harder the sleet is..

What I have seen though is very soft sleet on roads is worse on roads than Freezing rain as it will turn everything into a flat ice rink quickly.. But it will spare the trees and power outages.. Hard sleet seems to pile up like hail.. Soft sleet flattens as it hits and binds quickly to anything it touches.. The worst I have seen is when it was like 22 degrees and about a 3,000 foot nose of 1-2c.. Very soft sleet that flattens quick and you can basically take ice skates and skate anywhere you want to go outside..

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm curious. The update from DFW's AFD mentions that the front is ahead of schedule and is more likely to bring the colder temps sooner. Since this is becoming increasingly likely at the surface, whats to stop this from occuring aloft? I think someone previously mentioned a warm nose of 4-6C, but what are the chances the models are overestimating the temps aloft as well, and it ends up being something like 2-3C? I would imagine this would result in sleet becoming the predominant precip type.

Nothing actually, I think this may be likely as well in the Northwest counties.. But even at 2-3c with a large nose in the metroplex it just will be ZR that will freeze even faster when it hits the surface.. The problem is the nose is 5,000 feet from about 9,000 feet to 4,000 feet.. What is needed for sleet is a smaller nose.. Say something 2,000 feet long or less.. from say 6,000 feet to 4,000 feet.. The shallower the warmer air, the harder the sleet is..

What I have seen though is very soft sleet on roads is worse on roads than Freezing rain as it will turn everything into a flat ice rink quickly.. But it will spare the trees and power outages.. Hard sleet seems to pile up like hail.. Soft sleet flattens as it hits and binds quickly to anything it touches.. The worst I have seen is when it was like 22 degrees and about a 3,000 foot nose of 1-2c.. Very soft sleet that flattens quick and you can basically take ice skates and skate anywhere you want to go outside..

That makes sense. I just assumed a cooler warm nose would mean a narrower one too, which upon further thinking wouldnt necessarily be the case.

[ravyrn]

I've been making meteograms for friends and family in various locations in TX... is 0z GFS slightly warmer than the 12z by a couple degrees? Looking @ DFW, De Kalb, and Jacksonville (TX), it would seem it's a couple degrees warmer at the start and end of the event?

EDIT: Nevermind, temps seem to be on average 1-2F colder, but the highs at the start of next week seem to be about 3F higher than 12z.

[TrekkerCC]

That makes sense. I just assumed a cooler warm nose would mean a narrower one too, which upon further thinking wouldnt necessarily be the case.

We won't know really how stark the warm nose until the event develops and we see surface conditions (what is reported around the area, aka: freezing rain or sleet) and what the atmospheric conditions are like (from the weather balloon launches). Last nights sounding (12/04) at 6pm (or 12/05 00z) had a 16C temperature at around 5,000ft. As the event starts and we go about the day tomorrow, the atmospheric column will cool, but I still expect it to be well above freezing (roughly about 4 to 6C or warmer) as the models having been expecting around the 850mb level. The 12z and 00z (especially) FWD soundings will give better information (instead of model guesses) on what the atmosphere is doing in reality, but I expect we will be dealing with freezing rain for awhile and then transition to sleet early Friday Morning or Friday Afternoon. I would love a "surprise" - like a un-forecasted transition to snow (very, very low chance of this happening) -but it will be ice.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So hard to read the GFS or other models with this shallow air mass. Any tips guy or places where i can see 2m temps too? The one link on another page isnt very good but i think it was over doing it on temps too. Had Austin at like 23 on Saturday. Dont think thats believable

[Cyclenall]

Great. I'm at Ground Zero it appears.

Fort Worth NWS:

"WE ARE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT DENTON...COLLIN...COOKE...GRAYSON...AND FANNIN
COUNTIES WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ICING OF TREES IN THIS AREA WOULD LEAD TO LIMB BREAKAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS IN SOME COMMUNITIES. FURTHERMORE NOT ALL TREES HAVE LOST THEIR LEAVES YET WHICH WILL ADD TO TREE LIMB STRESS DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF MORE ICE."

Start saying your goodbyes to the electricity. With the leaves still on some trees per that text, you guys are toast. Whenever we still have our leaves on trees with just some wet snow there are power outages, with ice its happening and then some!!

Was watching CNN and I almost forgot about this when the models were still 1 week out. Chad Myers said "millions" will lose power and quoted some amounts based on old data.

[JDawg512]

So the NAM has the highest precipitation closest to Austin. I wonder which one will pan out. I'm definitely not as experienced in winter forecasting and I know being from Austin, these events tend to skirt us to the north/northwest but I'm beginning to think it may be a little different this time. Out of all the local TV news stations, the one my friend works at seems to be more inclined to say there will be for sure some ice accumulations including areas like Smithville in Fayette County. Another forcast kept fairly toned down about the threat of ice within the city and actually has temps warmer and precipitation chances lower than others I've seen. My concern will be tomorrow around 8 p.m as I will have to drive from north Austin back home on the southside. Right now that time frame looks okay but with the front moving in faster, I'm thinking I will monitor the temps fairly close especially after 6 p.m.

[paulb]

Just fyi for those that are reading the boards, at 5:45 am here in Paradise (about 10 miles southwest of Decatur) we had some light rain showers move through and the precipitation was reaching the ground.

If there was any concerns on whether or not precipitation would reach the ground in the early stages of the event, I think you may have your answer.

[srainhoutx]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Metro Austin. It appears a Winter Weather Advisory may be hoisted for portions of SE Texas mainly N of I-10 later today. NWS Houston/Galveston mentioning that light freezing drizzle/light freezing rain may slip further S into Metro Houston before all the moisture moves out late on Sunday.

[katheria]

its 6:23am and temp at my house is already 34.2..... and falling

please just hold off until after 4:30pm ill be home by then LOL

[weatherdude1108]

Woke up around 5:45am, hearing the modified north-northwest Yukon breeze against my house.

According to a WU station several miles to my north "as the crow flies," the first push moved through here between 3 and 4am, a couple hours ahead of schedule. It dropped 10 degrees in one hour at Camp Mabry. 47 here at 6:30 and dropping. This thing is making a beeline to the Equator!

[iorange55]

I don't think there is any doubt this is going to be nasty. It's just a matter of HOW nasty. And that's all going to depend on just how much precipitation we get. My best guess is that a good chunk of the Metroplex will see at least a quarter of an inch, but there will likely be a lot of higher amounts.

Of course, I am not that bright of a person...so don't believe anything I say.

Temp is currently 34 at the house and falling. The winds are brutal out there right now.

[Ntxw]

Wow it's cold! That wind makes it so much worse.

Anyway 850mb 0c is actually advancing a lot more than I thought. I wonder If the cold air is going to be deeper and puts out more sleet the models depicted, I certainly hope so! And also the freeze line is going much further south than we probably expected it's at the doorstep of northern-central Texas...impetus for Austin?

It might get dicey if you have to leave work later than 6pm