Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Harp.1]

Say what you will, but if we have to wait for the GFS to show any sign or hope for winter weather, it’s going to be a long wait. I know, I know, don’t pay attention to the operational runs. You’d think by now that SOMETHING would show up. But, not really. The brunt of the cold air just never makes it south for whatever meteorological reason.

[Stratton23]

Again the global models struggle with handling cold air, as they are a much lower resolution, plus they greatly struggle with the low level flow, more so specifically SW flow aloft, we have seen this with every arctic airmass in the past, globals try to hold up the arctic air due to SW flow, and almost always the arctic air goes all the way down to the gulf coast, once we get closer, specifically within 3-4 days of this, the short term mesocale models like the NAM do a far better job at picking up on these airmasses than the globals do

[CaptinCrunch]

Happy 2024....

It's going to be an exciting month ahead, and I'm ready

[Brent]

If all these storms would stop trending north already

I thought eventually the snowstorms would stop being in the same areas

[cajungal]

Say what you will, but if we have to wait for the GFS to show any sign or hope for winter weather, it’s going to be a long wait. I know, I know, don’t pay attention to the operational runs. You’d think by now that SOMETHING would show up. But, not really. The brunt of the cold air just never makes it south for whatever meteorological reason.

Weather channel app must follow the GFS because it keeps raising the temps again for next week.

[Gotwood]

Say what you will, but if we have to wait for the GFS to show any sign or hope for winter weather, it’s going to be a long wait. I know, I know, don’t pay attention to the operational runs. You’d think by now that SOMETHING would show up. But, not really. The brunt of the cold air just never makes it south for whatever meteorological reason.

GFS showed things very early then backed off I believe this happens quite often.

[Stratton23]

After looking at all three global models, all three have completely different evolutions with the US trough so you cannot put stock into one computer run no matter if its the GFS, Euro or CMC, ensembles are still the way to go right now and they still look good, Euro 12z weeklies keep us cold for a long time, the cold is coming

[aggiecutter]

[Brent]

I will say the EPS is still very bullish here with several members over 10 inches

[Cpv17]

I will say the EPS is still very bullish here with several members over 10 inches

That’s all that matters. F the operationals since it’s still far out.

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/w4d6cq2/GCy-CHBb-WMAEHyii.png [/url]

This looks alright but don’t care for the warmth it’s showing in western Canada.

[Quixotic]

It’s coming the 13th. Because I’ll be in Vegas.

[Itryatgolf]

It looks like the can kicking continues until foreseeable future. Hopefully things will change eventually for us.

[Cpv17]

It looks like the can kicking continues until foreseeable future. Hopefully things will change eventually for us.

We will need to establish a good snowpack to our north first. Gotta be patient.

[Stratton23]

Thats some serious blocking on the 18z GFS, extending from alaska into the arctic circle,

[Brent]

One thing I will say about the GFS if there's much error to the south over the next week were gonna get buried like some of the EPS members do

[Tireman4]

I'm not seeing anything to indicate significant cold coming south in the next 10 days or more. I note that the 00Z GFS doesn't even have freezing temps in D-FW through the 16th. 06Z run has a light freeze in D-FW the 15th and 16th. Very fast zonal flow is not good for bringing Arctic air south. Nothing significant in the 00Z Euro, either. Pattern is good for producing precipitation, though, with snow as far south as Oklahoma.

Winter is delayed? Over?

[SnowintheFalls]

I'm not seeing anything to indicate significant cold coming south in the next 10 days or more. I note that the 00Z GFS doesn't even have freezing temps in D-FW through the 16th. 06Z run has a light freeze in D-FW the 15th and 16th. Very fast zonal flow is not good for bringing Arctic air south. Nothing significant in the 00Z Euro, either. Pattern is good for producing precipitation, though, with snow as far south as Oklahoma.

Winter is delayed? Over?

Plenty of winter left but the window closes fast. Hoping end of January into February is good to us!

[Brent]

Yeah winter is so over when even DFW has a few snowy ensembles
.

[Stratton23]

00z CMC brings a lobe of the Tropospheric polar vortex near the US canada border lol