Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z NAM coming in much colder and brings snow all the way to the coast. This is the best setup I have seen in a long time for snow for the Gulfcoast, including the immediate coast.

[img]--[/img]

[img]--[/img]

The NAM is showing the critical 540 thickness line and the 0C 850mb line staying north of the FL panhandle on Thursday into early Friday morning. Because of this, it looks like mostly just rain for the Florida panhandle during this event if the 18z NAM proved to be correct:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

The sleet to snow transition line will be somewhere in southern or central Alabama/Georgia at 6z Friday morning according to this run.

[Cristina]

what do you see for areas just north of Atlanta? thank you!

[Dean4Storms]

18z NAM coming in much colder and brings snow all the way to the coast. This is the best setup I have seen in a long time for snow for the Gulfcoast, including the immediate coast.

[img]--[/img]

[img]--[/img]

The NAM is showing the critical 540 thickness line and the 0C 850mb line staying north of the FL panhandle on Thursday into early Friday morning. Because of this, it looks like mostly just rain for the Florida panhandle during this event if the 18z NAM proved to be correct:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

The sleet to snow transition line will be somewhere in southern or central Alabama/Georgia at 6z Friday morning according to this run.

It is going to be a close call for the Gulf coast.

[Dean4Storms]

what do you see for areas just north of Atlanta? thank you!

Latest model trends are not as robust with the Low or the moisture return that far north. You could see some flurries to a dusting I think.

You should pull up your local NWS office site and read their Discussion on it!

[cycloneye]

what do you see for areas just north of Atlanta? thank you!

First,welcome to storm2k.You can follow the latest forecasts for the Atlanta area at the NWS site.Here is the link.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/text.php?pil=ATLAFDFFC

[RNGR]

18z NAM coming in much colder and brings snow all the way to the coast. This is the best setup I have seen in a long time for snow for the Gulfcoast, including the immediate coast.

[img]--[/img]

[img]--[/img]

The NAM is showing the critical 540 thickness line and the 0C 850mb line staying north of the FL panhandle on Thursday into early Friday morning. Because of this, it looks like mostly just rain for the Florida panhandle during this event if the 18z NAM proved to be correct:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

The sleet to snow transition line will be somewhere in southern or central Alabama/Georgia at 6z Friday morning according to this run.

agreed. 18z NAM shows no winter precip near the gulf coast.

[RNGR]

what do you see for areas just north of Atlanta? thank you!

alright! I thought I was the only one from Atlanta in here. Welcome

[Ivanhater]

hmm so what does the blue line indicate on this image of the NAM?

[DEEDEE911]

How much snow do you think Southwest mississippi will get?

[Cristina]

what do you see for areas just north of Atlanta? thank you!

alright! I thought I was the only one from Atlanta in here. Welcome

Thanks, I'm from Canton...

[RNGR]

hmm so what does the blue line indicate on this image of the NAM?

that means that at 1000mb will be colder than at higher altitudes.

1000-850 thickness looks like snow:


but 850-700 thickness is too warm:


so freezing rain sounds more likely

[Ivanhater]

Ahh..thanks! Well freezing rain is no fun!

[Brent]

New forecast:

Thursday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s.

Thursday Night...Snow likely in the evening...then chance of snow after midnight. Lows around 19. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Friday...Cloudy. Highs in the mid 20s.

Friday Night...Colder. Partly cloudy. Lows around 8. Lowest wind chill readings 7 below to 3 above zero after midnight.

Saturday...Sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. Lowest wind chill readings 7 below to 18 above zero in the morning.

Saturday Night...Clear. Lows around 12.

Sunday...Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

[Ivanhater]

Well based on the 18z GFS, looks like freezing rain along the Gulfcoast

[SunnyThoughts]

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Go to the NOAA Homepage
NWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

5 products issued by NWS for: Pensacola FL
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-052215-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
407 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PART OF THE HARD FREEZE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS NOW BEEN
CANCELED FOR PARTS OF LOWER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
ALL OF FLORIDA. THIS IS DUE PRIMARILY TO A LARGE LOW CLOUD DECK
INVADING FROM THE NORTHWEST COVERING MOST OF THE REGION.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY BELOW LOCALLY SET CRITERIA WILL MAINTAIN THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN FLORIDA
AND SOUTHWEST-SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN RETURNING LATER IN THE
WEEK. LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE
COMBINED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MOSTLY FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IN ANY CASE TRAVEL COULD BE
HAZARDOUS AT THOSE TIMES. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

[SunnyThoughts]

Pensacola: THursday Cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the morning...then chance of rain and light sleet in the afternoon. Highs 44 to 49. chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy, Mostly cloudy. chance of snow in the evening...then slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows 25 to 30.

Kept the same as this morning.

[timNms]

Could this be similar to the March 1993 storm, not so much in the amount of snow, but the areas in which measurable snow falls? Back then they were calling for us to get rain. Then it started sleeting and they said we would see some sleet and possible snow with no accumulations because the ground was "too warm". It's a good thing the ground was warm or we might still be digging out We got about 9" of snow that evening.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Go figure, according to those models all the moisture is long gone from here just as the temps really start to drop. Maybe next time. Also still don't think our nws office has a grip on temps for this week. Lows are pretty close to what i am seeing in other areas but its the highs. They have us in the mid to upper 40's until friday. I saw that parts of se tx may not get above freezing for several days talking about record cold. Also said the cold would gradually slide eastward so you would think we would get in on that as well.

[Sabanic]

Could this be similar to the March 1993 storm, not so much in the amount of snow, but the areas in which measurable snow falls? Back then they were calling for us to get rain. Then it started sleeting and they said we would see some sleet and possible snow with no accumulations because the ground was "too warm". It's a good thing the ground was warm or we might still be digging out We got about 9" of snow that evening.

Well I would think after all these days of cold weather that the ground may be cold enough this time. We shall see.

[MGC]

Forecasting snow this far out along the gulf coast is a crap shoot. Usually, no snow is forecast but it snows anyway. Usually the precip and cold are out of phase....that will be the likely outcome this time too......MGC