Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

gfs 00z showing 1060mb at 138hrs.

[BigB0882]

Where is the 1060 mb at??? That means really cold air, right? I remember hearing a lot about a 1060mb high pressure bringing down all the cold but then as things began warming up the talk of that disappeared. Is it back in the picture, then?

[iorange55]

Where is the 1060 mb at??? That means really cold air, right? I remember hearing a lot about a 1060mb high pressure bringing down all the cold but then as things began warming up the talk of that disappeared. Is it back in the picture, then?

Way up towards the North Western territories of Canada and slowing sliding down. Still showing at 162hrs

[DonWrk]

So the higher the mb of high pressure means the colder the air will be if it comes down this way correct? Or does it have to have a perfect path down here for it to be really cold?

[johnbasham]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WINTRY MIX FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FIRST PERIOD OF THE ZONES. /06/

&&

[iorange55]

So the higher the mb of high pressure means the colder the air will be if it comes down this way correct? Or does it have to have a perfect path down here for it to be really cold?

Well usually, but it can get extremely cold here without something extreme like 1060mb+. Just depends on the airmass you're working with really, but the stronger the higher is definitely a good thing. 1060 is quite impressive, especially being only 138hrs out.

[MississippiWx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WINTRY MIX FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FIRST PERIOD OF THE ZONES. /06/

&&

I was just thinking to myself that Shreveport needs to get on board with the threat of wintry weather. The last several model runs have shown the Shreveport area to be in the middle of possible snow/ice/sleet/rain.

[Mr. Weather]

what do u think about this website is it worth trusting i have checked it a couple of times today first it said it was going to snow in Houston now its saying its not ????


http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_ ... tric=false

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Go check this out!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

[DonWrk]

Do the GFS 00z models all get updated at the same time or are they updated one by one?

[Ntxw]

Do the GFS 00z models all get updated at the same time or are they updated one by one?

Nope, usually in hour increments, NAM first, then GFS, then Canadian, and of course they save the best for last (Euro) to keep us awake late nights. Each about 30mins to 1 hour apart.

[DonWrk]

Do the GFS 00z models all get updated at the same time or are they updated one by one?

Nope, usually in hour increments, NAM first, then GFS, then Canadian, and of course they save the best for last (Euro) to keep us awake late nights. Each about 30mins to 1 hour apart.

Thanks, I'm learning more and more.

[Ntxw]

Thanks, I'm learning more and more.

No problem! Any other questions and the guru iorange will gladly answer. He's taken over the 0z model suite tonight dandy job.

[iorange55]

Thanks, I'm learning more and more.

No problem! Any other questions and the guru iorange will gladly answer. He's taken over the 0z model suite tonight dandy job.

Lol, you know more than me. Just trying to stay up for the Euro and plus I'm going to be gone most of the day tomorrow so I need to get my weather fix in tonight.

[Ntxw]

Lol, you know more than me. Just trying to stay up for the Euro and plus I'm going to be gone most of the day tomorrow so I need to get my weather fix in tonight.

Geez, don't be so modest . You've basically covered everything tonight. I don't see anything drastic on the GFS. Did catch a blip that the 500mb maps doesn't quite fit with the surface features. Which again shows we still hardly know the details and that the models don't have a handle of things well yet.

JB not long ago said he believes the core of the cold will be in the northern plains before things goes zonal which is kind of what the models have been hinting. I hope he is wrong. That's a lot of cold air damming and would be a waste if it never came down.

Update: the Canadian is showing the motherload of high's lol 1073 I think and brings it in the US at 1060+. I know the GGEM is cold biased but that's crazy.

[iorange55]

Lol, you know more than me. Just trying to stay up for the Euro and plus I'm going to be gone most of the day tomorrow so I need to get my weather fix in tonight.

Geez, don't be so modest . You've basically covered everything tonight. I don't see anything drastic on the GFS. Did catch a blip that the 500mb maps doesn't quite fit with the surface features. Which again shows we still hardly know the details and that the models don't have a handle of things well yet.

JB not long ago said he believes the core of the cold will be in the northern plains before things goes zonal which is kind of what the models have been hinting. I hope he is wrong. That's a lot of cold air damming and would be a waste if it never came down.

Update: the Canadian is showing the motherload of high's lol 1073 I think and brings it in the US at 1060+. I know the GGEM is cold biased but that's crazy.

Those numbers are fun to look at. There certainly seems like there is going to be some mighty cold air. Like you were saying though, will it all come down? Who knows.

[Ntxw]

Euro sure is an eye opener! From the metroplex east, everything lines up perfectly for a snow event.

And like JB mentioned earlier another system not progged so well right now is on the horizon.

[iorange55]

Euro sure is an eye opener!

Was just coming to post. It looks pretty good for this next "event" if I'm not looking at it wrong. I'm drained, though. Hopefully tomorrow is a big day where we get some answers. I'll be looking forward to coming back home and catching up on everything.

[Ntxw]

Euro sure is an eye opener!

Was just coming to post. It looks pretty good for this next "event" if I'm not looking at it wrong. I'm drained, though. Hopefully tomorrow is a big day where we get some answers. I'll be looking forward to coming back home and catching up on everything.

Here's to hoping we have good news for you!

[Ntxw]

Overall tonight's run were a plus in the snow department. Euro/Canadian/GFS (bit more towards the Arklatex though on the GFS) for winter precip here in NTX this weekend as the best dynamics move over head with the low through Texas. Lets see if the runs tomorrow can trend the same way.