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rhoby13 wrote:How accurate are these GFS models 9-14 days out?
rhoby13 wrote:I agree, I'll get more excited if the models are holding this weekend into early next week
rhoby13 wrote:How accurate are these GFS models 9-14 days out?
snow and ice wrote:It's only to be used for general pattern recognition(run to run continuity) past 5-7 days. The Ensembles and EURO are better in the medium to long range as far as general pattern recognition is concerned, however. You'll save yourself a lot of disappointment if you'll take the specifics of GFS runs past 5 days with a grain salt. Calling Miss Cleo, throwing darts at a dart board, or using a Ouija board would be just about as accurate as relying on the specifics of a particular GFS run past day 5.
srainhoutx wrote:snow and ice wrote:It's only to be used for general pattern recognition(run to run continuity) past 5-7 days. The Ensembles and EURO are better in the medium to long range as far as general pattern recognition is concerned, however. You'll save yourself a lot of disappointment if you'll take the specifics of GFS runs past 5 days with a grain salt. Calling Miss Cleo, throwing darts at a dart board, or using a Ouija board would be just about as accurate as relying on the specifics of a particular GFS run past day 5.
Agreed. The trends at least so far do raise an eyebrow.
The cold breezes felt on Wednesday afternoon will linger into Thursday and Friday, albeit from a different direction as the weekend approaches. The center of high pressure (which contains the coldest part of the domain) will move eastward and not due south into Texas, so the harshest drop in temperature will bypass the Lone Star State. Still, readings will feel raw due to increasing moisture content in the atmosphere, brought about by a return flow off of the Gulf of Mexico.
Rain that falls on Friday and early Saturday will likely be in the light to moderate range. A disturbance forming over the western Gulf of Mexico will not intensify until it is past the Houston-Galveston metro, dropping heavier rainfall across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama this weekend. Once the low pressure center moves on, much warmer temperatures will take over on Sunday and Monday.
With the warmer air will come an increased chance at showers and thunderstorms, most of which should occur on December 14. A strong cold front and trough complex (note the vigorous jet stream wind maximum in the right portion of the trough) will push through Texas on Monday evening, followed by a more meaningful drop in temperature that could take readings on Tuesday to near freezing by nightfall.
Judging by the upper air pattern setting up, increasingly cold weather will be our lot in life as the holiday period approaches. The impressive Kelvin wave connection to storms over the northern Pacific Ocean as well as the subtropical jet stream, running from near the International Dateline through Mexico. With the southern branch spawning an important storm near the mouth of the Rio Grande River around December 19 - 20, the potential exists for both record cold and heavy (possibly frozen) precipitation in areas east of the Rocky Mountains in the days before, and including, Christmas.
snow and ice wrote:The afternoon Ensembles show an arctic front entering the southern plains and Texas in the 8-12 day period.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 20912.html
Highly active El Nino enhanced southern jet will send our next storm system into the region Friday-Saturday.
Short waves lined up over the eastern Pacific in an active southern branch jet stream, while cold air continues to advect southward from the plains. Freeze line is currently from near Cleveland to Tomball to Austin and may sag a tad southward yet this morning. Given increasing high level cirrus today and continued low level cold air advection on NE winds…temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40’s.
Shortwave runs aground the Baja region tonight and helps to induce the infamous NW Gulf surface low pressure on Friday (seems like every few days we get a NW Gulf surface low this Fall). Low and coastal trough looks to form along the low TX coast with strong 300K isentropic lift starting Friday morning and really ramping up Friday evening as 850mb winds turn south and overrun (upglide) the cold dome at the surface. Will see light rain/drizzle early become widespread showers by Friday afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible Friday night/early Saturday. Coastal low will track offshore the upper TX coast and toward the LA coast with any severe weather being out over the open Gulf waters. Will see highs only near 50 on Friday as clouds, rain, and NE winds keep cold air advection in place. Widespread rainfall amounts of .25-.75 will be common with isolated amounts of 1.50 inches possible especially along the coast.
Tides may also be an issue late Friday into Saturday as winds ramp up in the offshore waters as the coastal low approaches. For now it does not look as if any warning levels will be exceeded…but locations on Bolivar could have some standing water at high tide.
System exits east Saturday with skies clearing and near seasonal temperatures for a change after our stretch of below average days…this will be short lived however as strong polar boundary surges southward down the plains on the backside of our next storm due in Monday. This system looks to be similar to Friday’s event however the surface low may be closer to the coast and some of the area may get warm sectored…like last Tuesday. Strong polar front rushes in by Tuesday of next week and will go colder than the GFS as I do not believe it is handling the cold air all that great and the pattern with a 1040mb high over the plains favors this dense air mass to drop quickly southward and likely be colder than guidance suggests. Will continue to watch…but trends point toward an increasingly cold period from the middle to next week through Christmas with our active southern stream continuing
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