Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[somethingfunny]

Today's thoughts from Fort Worth:

IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES. NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY NEXT MONDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE
DOES CONTINUE TO COME IN WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ALL RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Any thoughts on Thursday's rain and early next week's storm?

[Ntxw]

Any thoughts on Thursday's rain and early next week's storm?

Not sure about severe weather for Thurs, but central Texas looks like the best spot, good rains aside from that. GFS tonight shows an impressive storm tracking across the southern plains much like the Euro with an impressive deformation band of snow in the panhandle into western Oklahoma early next week. Still time to fine tune the details. Where it ejects out will be important.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Any thoughts on Thursday's rain and early next week's storm?

Not sure about severe weather for Thurs, but central Texas looks like the best spot, good rains aside from that. GFS tonight shows an impressive storm tracking across the southern plains much like the Euro with an impressive deformation band of snow in the panhandle into western Oklahoma early next week. Still time to fine tune the details. Where it ejects out will be important.

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/4501/gfsx.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

It would be nice to get some snow from next week's system so no chance for any frozen precip Thursday night? I noticed the precip pretty close to some cold temps per 00Z run.

[Turtle]

Yeah it could be snowy for some portions of OK next week. As for my area (NE Texas) it looks pretty uneventful. Although at hour 264 - Christmas - it's showing .02" of liquid in the mid 30s. Perhaps we can have a white Christmas.

[weatherdude1108]

Hi everyone,

I am brand new to this site. I was sent the link by a cohort of mine. I have been browsing it over the past several days. Looks cool, so I thought I'd try it out. I have been interested in weather a long time. Anyway. That's my brief intro.

I saw NOAA's latest forecast discussion for the South and Central Texas area. Bring on the rain! We need it to rain for a solid month or so to get even close to normal. Wonder if we'll have any chances for frozen precip around the holidays(?).

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 141324
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
724 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FORECASTS FROM 06Z AND ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SOLUTIONS
AND TRENDS FROM 06Z TO 12Z THIS MORNING. MID TO LATE DECEMBER
WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ILLUSTRATED BY NCEP AND ECMWF FORECAST SOLUTIONS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALSO MATCHES THE TRENDS SINCE OCTOBER.
AN APPROACHING 500 HPA TROF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MERGES WITH A PROGRESSIVE
500 HPA TROF MOVING FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO MS VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS
ENERGY WILL MOVE A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHOW UP
WITH THIS MID DECEMBER WEATHER PATTERN FOR TONIGHT...SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN FORECASTS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG FROM THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT...WHERE MORE DYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT...AS INDICATED BY SPC OUTLOOKS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE FROM BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHILE TO THE WEST ANOTHER WAVE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL FOLLOW...AS A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT
FIELD OVER A LARGE AREA LINGERS ACROSS THE SW U.S. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IN WAKE
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. AS THIS WAVE OF S/W ENERGY PASSED NORTH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LARGE SCALE LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW U.S. AND SET UP A CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY
BRIEF RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALOFT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
JUST NORTH OF THE COOL FRONT. THIS RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE
OF THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW U.S.

ON SUNDAY...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR BIG BEND...
AND WILL TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...TO JUST NORTH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS
TO BE A BIGGER SCALE LOW ALOFT...SO WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN ANS SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE 500 HPA LOW MOVES QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AS ANOTHER 500 HPA TROF DEVELOPS OVER
THE SW U.S...WHERE A LARGE SCALE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
CONTINUES...MAKING IT A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 500 HPA LOWS TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Rgv20]

The low at my backyard was 70 with a dewpoint of 70!! gotta love the RGV!!

[ndale]

Welcome aboard weatherdude1108. I think you will the find the blog very interesting. We have some very good pro mets and very knowledgable amateurs on this site so if you have any weather questions be sure to ask. It might help them to know your location if you could put that in your profile, from the forecast you posted I assume you are in the Austin area too.

[Portastorm]

Welcome weatherdude1108! Great to have you on board and I'll assume you're from the south central area of the state based on the NWS forecast discussion which you referenced. I encourage you to update your profile to show your location.

As ndale said so well, we have a great group here and active discussions. Some days are busier than others depending on the real weather and the model runs. So ... enjoy ... and chime in whenever!

[benrayrog]

Haven't been around for awhile. Has there been any long-range winter outlooks post for East Texas? Just curious what to expect in January and February. The last two years have been interesting!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Latest GFS shows a nice snow-band, in Oklahoma, setting up on the backside of early next week's system! The 12Z run brought the snow a little bit closer to NTX than the 06Z run!

[weatherdude1108]

Thanks guys! Looking forward to the discussions. How do you update your profile? I was looking around the site. Probably just missed it...

[DonWrk]

Nice the 12z GFS shows the panhandle getting hammered, that's what I like to see. Just need to see that inch closer our way.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Nice the 12z GFS shows the panhandle getting hammered, that's what I like to see. Just need to see that inch closer our way.

It's closer than the 06Z GFS! Can't wait to see what the other models have to show..

[gboudx]

Thanks guys! Looking forward to the discussions. How do you update your profile? I was looking around the site. Probably just missed it...

At the top-right, you'll see, "User Control Panel". Click on that, when logged in, then click "Profile" on the middle-left.

[orangeblood]

Haven't been around for awhile. Has there been any long-range winter outlooks post for East Texas? Just curious what to expect in January and February. The last two years have been interesting!

I think that's going to be an extremely difficult question to answer this winter season....these models can't even predict what's going to happen 5 days from now. There are just too many variables at play this winter season and there don't seem to be enough analogs to match these variables in order to make a comfortable prediction.

To me, nothing adds up so far this winter in regards to what you typically see in a moderate/weak La Nina, cold PDO, and neutral AMO. And now we're adding another difficult variable to this winter season with the Sudden Stratospheric Warming episode evolving....

[Ntxw]

Welcome weatherdude!

What a nice wet day out there! I just wanted to caution making predictions about Monday's system. It is a classic example of a storm that is a powerful low that does pretty much what it wants and are notorious for model mayhem, track is everything

[weatherdude1108]

Welcome weatherdude!

What a nice wet day out there! I just wanted to caution making predictions about Monday's system. It is a classic example of a storm that is a powerful low that does pretty much what it wants and are notorious for model mayhem, track is everything

Thanks! It is nice here in Austin and the surrounding areas. Interesting! I am curious what the low does next week(?). BTW, what is this in the profile?

"Mandatory field: *
This is used to cause the spammers some grief."

I couldn't register without filling it in, so I put the first selection. I didn't know what it was asking or why it wanted me to fill it out(?). Confused on that one. Thanks for the updating profile directions!

[Portastorm]

weatherdude1108 ... if you chose the "delete me please" option, which is the first option, then you're fine. It is something we need to do to discourage spam.

I just took a look at the 12z GFS and Euro ... nothing too exciting for our neck of the woods (south central Texas) besides ample rain chances. I guess that's exciting enough, eh?!

I do think parts of north and northwest Texas may see some wintry precip early next week if that upper-level low doesn't shear out and if it tracks overhead. As Ntxw has been saying, the track is everything.

Still waiting to see if we get a good buildup of Arctic air later this month with a possible delivery mechanism to appear in early January.

[South Texas Storms]

weatherdude1108 ... if you chose the "delete me please" option, which is the first option, then you're fine. It is something we need to do to discourage spam.

I just took a look at the 12z GFS and Euro ... nothing too exciting for our neck of the woods (south central Texas) besides ample rain chances. I guess that's exciting enough, eh?!

I do think parts of north and northwest Texas may see some wintry precip early next week if that upper-level low doesn't shear out and if it tracks overhead. As Ntxw has been saying, the track is everything.

Still waiting to see if we get a good buildup of Arctic air later this month with a possible delivery mechanism to appear in early January.

Porta, I'm very excited with all of the rain chances we have in south central Texas for the next 5 days! To me, any precipitation is a blessing. We are slowly chipping away at our drought and if this pattern continues all winter, it is very possible that the drought may be gone by March! Wouldn't that be incredible?! Especially with a La Nina Winter!