Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

I would like to further my meteo knowledge tomorrow by researching what mechanics in the atmosphere play out so that you have massive blocking like this. The blocking they are predicting is very widespread across the arctic.

Many layers to that onion. Sea surface temperature orientation, Global Wind Oscillation, and Mountain Torque events are good places to start.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Saturday Dec. 22/12
Forecast for Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan

Scattered fluries
POP 40%

High -17
Feels like -27
Low -21
Wind from the N.W. 15 km/h

Now I'm no expert but it seems when we have a wind from the Northwest you folks seem to do well (hope it is right and the blocking out there is in the right place). Good luck re your White Christmas!

i need to move to Saskatchewan....

Keep in mind we also can hit -30, -40, -50 and if using F -60 (not counting windchill).

I can't believe you fellows are still up (it's 12:05 am here and that system is still ~ a week away)!

I'm up because my son left Grande Prairie and made it to a town with a hotel still with a vacancy (he drove through a snow storm and saw every vehicle that passed him hit the ditch one rolled multiple times)....I told him to kiss his winter tires when he arrived somewhere safe and phone me so I could go to bed).

[gpsnowman]

This is great stuff everyone! Except I am travelling to East Texas for Christmas leaving on the 24th. If I miss a white Christmas in Grand Prairie I will be so...........not happy. How might this all pan out in East Texas? Marshall/Caddo Lake area?

[Ntxw]

Euro is very identical to the GFS to 144 hours. Also 1052mb hp in Canada (stronger than its 12z run), storm is digging with big blocking to the north and east.

[Ntxw]

192, day after Christmas, there's a blizzard from Waco north on the Euro. Pretty much identical to the GFS. Also is trying to make it snow in the teens. Some snow for Porta too!

[Cyclenall]

If this predicted winter storm for Texas and areas around end up looking like a major ice storm, will you guys still be rooting for it? A new experience...eating Christmas dinner in the dark with coats on .

I sure hope that blocking we provide from the north ends up making us warmer . Heard talks of a 1057 mb high near Montana...yikes don't want that unless its over NS or NFL. And no that cold does not have to go somewhere...it can stay where it is.

[wxman57]

That's a hell of a ice storm even for Houston on the 27th... 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice...

where are you see this?

I'd like to know that, too.

[iorange55]

DFW NWS morning discussion

THE CHRISTMAS AND BOXING DAY FORECAST IS STILL QUITE TENTATIVE...
GIVEN THE CHANGES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS AND THE VARIANCE IN THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IF ONE WERE TO PERFECT PROG THE GFS
SOLUTION...SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A POWER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS
MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH
STILL RESULTS IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER BUT MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

Hm, I thought Euro still looked good...at least to me. No reason to worry about the details, though. We've got 7-8 days to go and I am sure a lot will change, but I don't think this storm is going away. Someone in Texas and Oklahoma will probably get hammered.

I'll be out most of the day, so keep the snow machine coming!

[gboudx]

If this predicted winter storm for Texas and areas around end up looking like a major ice storm, will you guys still be rooting for it? A new experience...eating Christmas dinner in the dark with coats on .

I doubt any sensible person would root for an ice storm. If the forecast is for ice, I hope there's a thick warm layer and it rains hard enough to drag it down and raise surface temps enough to keep it all liquid.

[Ntxw]

This will not be an ice storm no warm layer aloft. Either you are in the comma head blizzard or thunderstorms on the otherside.

[Portastorm]

This will not be an ice storm no warm layer aloft. Either you are in the comma head blizzard or thunderstorms on the otherside.

Agreed. This is not an ice storm set up for Texas. It really is starting to remind me of the 2009 Christmas storm more and more. When you've got the GFS and Euro agreeing, more or less, at this point along with ensemble agreement ... well, it's something to raise eyebrow or two.

[NDG]

Looking good for Dallas! Unless the 06z GFS run is right
At this point I would not put too much stock on the Euro's long range forecast, it has been all over lately.

[Kelarie]

From NWS Shreveport...Winter mix?

...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL AID IN WARMING OUR TEMPS BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
MONDAY...AS A VERY POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WEATHER...VERY COLD AIR
INTRUSION...AND EVEN SOME WINTRY PRECIP TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. THE GRIDS REFLECT A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITOR THE MODEL TENDENCIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND HOPEFULLY BEGIN TO FOCUS IN ON THIS EVENT
LATER THIS WORK WEEK. /12/

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, next week's storm is shaping up to be a potential nice wintry event for folks in portions of Texas. I was analyzing the models and this system looks to tap substantial moisture as well and the dynamics look be impressive as well.. Could be a 1-2 punch of a round of severe thunderstorms late Tuesday into early Christmas, then snow on the back side as the potent upper level disturbance moves though late Christmas into the day after.

Lots can still vary with the models a week or so out with the timing and strength of the system, but right now, I would say the odds fairly decent for possible winter fun in parts of Texas next week.

[Portastorm]

BREAKING NEWS ... Administrators at the Portastorm Weather Center have cancelled all pre-Christmas weekend leave activities for its personnel and have ordered extra stock of Grey Goose. Press conferences may be held later this week according to unnamed sources.

[WacoWx]

192, day after Christmas, there's a blizzard from Waco north on the Euro. Pretty much identical to the GFS. Also is trying to make it snow in the teens. Some snow for Porta too!

Okay, you pulled me out of lurking. Good work, Ntxw.

[Ntxw]

192, day after Christmas, there's a blizzard from Waco north on the Euro. Pretty much identical to the GFS. Also is trying to make it snow in the teens. Some snow for Porta too!

Okay, you pulled me out of lurking. Good work, Ntxw.

I've been wondering where you've been! Are you still in the metroplex or returned to Waco?

[WacoWx]

In Dallas. This thread will determine whether or not I leave to come back from Waco on Christmas day, or the day after with a massive hangover. Either way, I just want snow! (knocking on wood crossing fingers)

[txtiff]

I have plans to leave the Dallas area, and travel just northeast of Lawton, Oklahoma. Leaving on the 22nd, and coming back on the 26th. If any of this pans out I may have to make some major adjustments to travel plans.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Anyone see the crazy Uncle model from our friends to the North?

Joe B has a Tweet feed with the pic...

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 93/photo/1


That would be pipe busting stuff for us if it came down this way, I would think?