Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Like Randy said, these past few days have really put me in the summer mood. We shouldn't get use to this because we all know it's Seattle and January...the two equal rain/snow of some sort. In any event, Snow_Wizzard...just because cold air is building in Alaska and Canada doesn't necessarily mean it will move into the PNW. And it doesn't mean it will filter down through the lower 48. You need dynamics to come together to produce such a pattern...and NO models show any dynamics coming together to bring down that arctic air. But, I think I need to realize it's only the end of January. We still have ALL of February and half of March to get an arctic blast/snow. So I won't give up just yet. Anyone remember winter of 2000-2001? We had NOTHING...but February 15 brought 8 inches of snow with cold air. So anything could happen at this point. But these last few days have been enjoyable and fun...it's put me in the summer spirit. Crap, I think TT-SEA has rubbed off on all of us!!! lol. He's making everyone love warm/dry and hate cold/snow. lol.
Anthony
Anthony
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Anthony, I remember 2000-2001 in mid Dec. we had cold weather for a week or so, I remember being off work because of cold, and I think we had a little snowfall, maybe an inch. Then I remember the 10" (up here anyway) of snow in mid Feb. I don't remember what the weather was like between those two episodes. Do you? Wasn't it fairly dry, or am I thinking of another yr???
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Alright snow_wizzard, I'm not turning into the anti-snow TT-SEA but he's been very accurate this entire winter so I tend to trust his forecasts. Just looked at the extended models and you are correct to some degree. Arctic air is reloading in Alaska and Canada, but there's still a significant zonal flow and strong high pressure centered in the four corners. That's not conduscive for arctic air in the PNW.
R-Dub,
I do remember one extreme windstorm in the middle of December, 2000...it was poorly forecasted and snuck up on all forecasters. I woke up on a Friday morning to 60 mph winds with no power. That was VERY exciting...and I think I do remember a small over-running event that next Sunday that brought 0.5 inch of snow...but it quickly changed to rain. But besides that freak windstorm and that one snowstorm in February, the winter season of 2000-2001 was uneventful and boring. We had tremendous fog and temperature inversions all of November, most of December, January and much of March. The ski resorts didn't fair much better either. The season went from Dec. 15 thru March 1.
Anthony
R-Dub,
I do remember one extreme windstorm in the middle of December, 2000...it was poorly forecasted and snuck up on all forecasters. I woke up on a Friday morning to 60 mph winds with no power. That was VERY exciting...and I think I do remember a small over-running event that next Sunday that brought 0.5 inch of snow...but it quickly changed to rain. But besides that freak windstorm and that one snowstorm in February, the winter season of 2000-2001 was uneventful and boring. We had tremendous fog and temperature inversions all of November, most of December, January and much of March. The ski resorts didn't fair much better either. The season went from Dec. 15 thru March 1.
Anthony
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Thats right Anthony I remember that windstorm now! I remember having to go into the golf course (when I was just a guy on the crew) and help clean up the mess. We lost 3 good sized trees, and there were branches all over the place! Power was out for hrs. Doesn't it seem like at least 85% of our really big windstorms go unforecasted. Then the ones that are forecasted flop. I would have to say windstorms in Western WA are the single most hardest thing to forecast here!!
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Nah, lowland snow is the hardest thing to forecast in Washington. At least with windstorms, there are warning signs...surface low deepening off the Oregon coast then eventually tracking northeast off the Washington coast. Lowland snow requires many more factors to go right before it happens...arctic air filtering from the north, a surface low parked just right off the south Washington coast and a moderate easterly wind to produce low dewpoints. But I think windstorms are the most exciting weather we experience in Western Washington...due to the fact that they are so widespread and affect a vast amount of land/property.
Anthony
Anthony
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Just thought I'd remind everyone what winter up at Snoqualmie is suppose to look like --
Instead of http://www.lanikaivacationrental.com/Oa ... -Beach.jpg
Currently 42 degrees here.
Instead of http://www.lanikaivacationrental.com/Oa ... -Beach.jpg
Currently 42 degrees here.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Andrew...That is torture showing us that!
As for the most exciting weather we can get in lowlands...I would have to say that the the mega snowstorms of yesteryear would take the cake. Feb 1916 had over 4 feet of snow on the ground on the east side, Jan 1880 had 6 feet on the ground, Feb 1893 had 40 inches on the ground at Woodland Park. To see that again, would be REALLY exciting! Then you have Jan - Feb 1862 where the Columbia froze over 30 inches thick at Vancouver, and Lake Washington was froze over for weeks.
Anyway, back to reality...I am suspicious of the past few GFS runs. It shows a deep low and serious cold in Alaska, but with well above normal heights over this area. That does not teleconnect well at all. All of that cold air in Alaska should keep the heights supressed over the entire Gulf of Alaska as well as the Pacific NW. I feel that the way the cold in Alaska plays out is going to be crucial in determing our fate. By the way...I am aware that cold in alaska does not mean we are guaranteed to get cold here, but it does increase our chances.
As for the most exciting weather we can get in lowlands...I would have to say that the the mega snowstorms of yesteryear would take the cake. Feb 1916 had over 4 feet of snow on the ground on the east side, Jan 1880 had 6 feet on the ground, Feb 1893 had 40 inches on the ground at Woodland Park. To see that again, would be REALLY exciting! Then you have Jan - Feb 1862 where the Columbia froze over 30 inches thick at Vancouver, and Lake Washington was froze over for weeks.
Anyway, back to reality...I am suspicious of the past few GFS runs. It shows a deep low and serious cold in Alaska, but with well above normal heights over this area. That does not teleconnect well at all. All of that cold air in Alaska should keep the heights supressed over the entire Gulf of Alaska as well as the Pacific NW. I feel that the way the cold in Alaska plays out is going to be crucial in determing our fate. By the way...I am aware that cold in alaska does not mean we are guaranteed to get cold here, but it does increase our chances.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Another thing I have to say....While it is currently true that everything seemingly has to come together just absolutely perfect for us to get snow in the lowlands, that has not always been the case. It used to take nothing more than a NW flow bringing a surface low inland just to the south to bring some good snows here. In looking at the old records it is clear that we got snow all the time from patterns that were nothing special. All we can do is hope that we go back to that.
Palmer, which is a small town about 15 miles east of Kent used to average 52 inches per winter from 1930 - 1980...since 1980 the average has been only 17 inches per winter. That clearly shows just how wimpy things have gotten around here! Just to give you an idea of how much 52 inches per winter is...Boston only averages 41 inches per season.
Palmer, which is a small town about 15 miles east of Kent used to average 52 inches per winter from 1930 - 1980...since 1980 the average has been only 17 inches per winter. That clearly shows just how wimpy things have gotten around here! Just to give you an idea of how much 52 inches per winter is...Boston only averages 41 inches per season.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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TT-SEA
!!
Brennan... the devil is in the details. I did not make a prediction for the whole winter... I am always looking at the short term and the medium range. Although the long range stuff that Wizzard studies is very interesting and I do believe in cycles. I did pretty well last week with Pineapple Express 1 and the complete bust of Pineapple Express 2.
Looking the models tonight... there is NOTHING coming guys. I know... quite a news flash!!
Looking the models tonight... there is NOTHING coming guys. I know... quite a news flash!!
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...I will grant you that you did very well in downplaying the pineapple express. What ended up being bad flooding looked destined to be catastrophic flooding. I was impressed that you called that one so well.
I think we wil have something much more exciting to talk about within a few days. The GFS is beginning to show a fast westerly flow just to the north of us. If that drops down a notch or two we could be getting some good cold fronts in here. At any rate it is showing a good cold front at the end of the week that will bring some snow to the passes.
I think we wil have something much more exciting to talk about within a few days. The GFS is beginning to show a fast westerly flow just to the north of us. If that drops down a notch or two we could be getting some good cold fronts in here. At any rate it is showing a good cold front at the end of the week that will bring some snow to the passes.
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Well folks, the latest PNA forecast looks down right horrible 
Maybe things will turn around, but its not looking real good at this point.
On an up note, I found another tape last night when I was rummaging around my mountains of unmarked tapes. It was a full tape on the Febuary 16th 2001 snowstorm. That was a pretty darn good storm, didn't watch all of it, but it looked like everyone got a healthy dose of snow. Almost every school in Western WA was closed. I had 10" up here. Our cheap carport we stored our camper under collapsed, luckily no damage to camper.
Current temp 43.2 degrees
Have a great day everyone
Maybe things will turn around, but its not looking real good at this point.
On an up note, I found another tape last night when I was rummaging around my mountains of unmarked tapes. It was a full tape on the Febuary 16th 2001 snowstorm. That was a pretty darn good storm, didn't watch all of it, but it looked like everyone got a healthy dose of snow. Almost every school in Western WA was closed. I had 10" up here. Our cheap carport we stored our camper under collapsed, luckily no damage to camper.
Current temp 43.2 degrees
Have a great day everyone
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Cumulonimbus
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 70
- Joined: Sun Jun 22, 2003 9:03 am
- Location: Newcastle, WA
Once again, looks like the big guys in DC look to the ECMWF for the longer range forecast due to the fact that it usually forecasts the longer range correctly(or close to it) most of the time. This is the beginning of the midmorning discussion:
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
933 AM EST WED JAN 26 2005
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 30 2005 - 12Z WED FEB 02 2005
UPDATED MID-MORNING PRELIMINARY MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
IN OUR 0933Z DISCUSSION...WE PUT FAITH IN THE 00Z/26 ECMWF TO LEAD
THE WAY INTO A POSSIBLE BLOCKY REGIME IN EARLY FEBRUARY. ONLY TIME
WILL TELL WHETHER THE HUGE BLOCK ESE OF GREENLAND WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY NW WITH TIME. OUR CHOICE OF THE ECMWF WAS A BIT RISKY
CONSIDERING THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVED SOME
KIND OF SYS UP THE MS/OH VALLEYS MON OR TUE. NEVERTHELESS...THE
ECMWF HAS PROVEN ITSELF IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME AND TIME AGAIN
THIS WINTER. THE COLD SNAP COMING INTO THE ERN US THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WAS INDICATED 5-6 DAYS OUT BY THE ECMWF...BUT MOSTLY MISSED
BY THE GFS.
FOR OUR MID MORNING RELEASE..WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE 00Z/26
GFS ENSEMBLE SURFACE/500MB MEANS OVER THE CONUS. THESE MEANS
INCORPORATES MANY DESIRABLE FEATURES OF THE ECMWF....WHILE
MINIMIZING UNDESIRABLE ONES.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
933 AM EST WED JAN 26 2005
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 30 2005 - 12Z WED FEB 02 2005
UPDATED MID-MORNING PRELIMINARY MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
IN OUR 0933Z DISCUSSION...WE PUT FAITH IN THE 00Z/26 ECMWF TO LEAD
THE WAY INTO A POSSIBLE BLOCKY REGIME IN EARLY FEBRUARY. ONLY TIME
WILL TELL WHETHER THE HUGE BLOCK ESE OF GREENLAND WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY NW WITH TIME. OUR CHOICE OF THE ECMWF WAS A BIT RISKY
CONSIDERING THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVED SOME
KIND OF SYS UP THE MS/OH VALLEYS MON OR TUE. NEVERTHELESS...THE
ECMWF HAS PROVEN ITSELF IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME AND TIME AGAIN
THIS WINTER. THE COLD SNAP COMING INTO THE ERN US THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WAS INDICATED 5-6 DAYS OUT BY THE ECMWF...BUT MOSTLY MISSED
BY THE GFS.
FOR OUR MID MORNING RELEASE..WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE 00Z/26
GFS ENSEMBLE SURFACE/500MB MEANS OVER THE CONUS. THESE MEANS
INCORPORATES MANY DESIRABLE FEATURES OF THE ECMWF....WHILE
MINIMIZING UNDESIRABLE ONES.
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