February 16-21, 2008 Idea: Reservoir of Cold Builds in Canad

[donsutherland1]

As of 11 am, record warm temperatures were tumbling across the East. Some highlights included:

Atlantic City: 70° (broke record of 63° set 1965)
Newark: 62° (broke record of 57° set in 2005)
Norfolk: 75° (tied record of 75° set in 2004)
Philadelphia: 67° (broke record of 65° set in 1884)
Richmond: 74° (broke record of 71° set in 1938)
Wallops Island, VA: 71° (broke record of 60° set in 1990)
Washington, DC:
…DCA: 71° (broke record of 69° set in 1938)
…IAD: 68° (broke record of 66° set in 1990)
Wilmington, DE: 68° (broke record of 60° set in 1896)

Discouraging as the warmth might be, a gradual evolution toward cooler conditions appears likely in the longer-term.

Although the EPO is forecast to remain positive for the foreseeable future and there are growing indications that the NAO will wind up neutral down the road. At the same time, Canada’s reservoir of cold air should be expanding. As a result, colder air should ooze into the United States with the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and New England areas seeing the coldest intrusions. However, until blocking actually develops, odds probably favor the southern United States, particularly from the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast remaining on the mild side of normal.

The Pacific Northwest will likely continue to remain wetter than normal. There is a possibility of sizable storm in eastern North America near the end of the period or just afterward.

Average Regional Temperature Anomalies:
Northeast: Somewhat below normal to near normal
Mid-Atlantic: Somewhat below normal to near normal
Southeast: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Great Lakes: Somewhat below normal
Northern Plains: Below normal
Central Plains: Near normal
Southern Plains: Somewhat above normal
Pacific Northwest: Somewhat below normal to near normal
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: Above normal

Best Guess of Regional Temperature Anomalies (°F):
Northeast: -2° to 0°
Mid-Atlantic: -2° to 0°
Southeast: 0° to +2°
Great Lakes: -3 to -1°
Northern Plains: -5° to -3°
Central Plains: -1° to +1°
Southern Plains: +1° to +3°
Pacific Northwest: -2° to 0°
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: +3° to +5°

[shibumi]

Yeah....Fairbanks has been about 40 degrees below normal for the past 4-5 days.....

[Steve H.]

Yes, and some the the models are suggesting the potential for a significant storm after the 20th of this month. That cold air up in the Canadien prairies will ooze down next week, but if we can get some blocking and trough amplification, maybe we can get some of that cold air to break loose into the SE Right now its beautiful on he east coast of Florida, but too warm for this time of year. 87F in Melbourne FL yesterday!!

[jinftl]

It's a race against the calendar for significant cold down here....Spring Training starts the end of next week!!!

="Steve H."]Yes, and some the the models are suggesting the potential for a significant storm after the 20th of this month. That cold air up in the Canadien prairies will ooze down next week, but if we can get some blocking and trough amplification, maybe we can get some of that cold air to break loose into the SE Right now its beautiful on he east coast of Florida, but too warm for this time of year. 87F in Melbourne FL yesterday!! [/quote]