2/12-13/2008 Snowstorm: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

“[S]ummer turned into winter and the snow had turned into rain
And the rain turned into tears…”
--Michael Bublé’s “Lost”

That pretty much sums up the story of the winter for most of the big cities of the U.S. East Coast. In general, the snows have been light. Bigger storms have seen the snow rapidly transition to rain or even just plain rain. The tears have flowed from among the snow geese residing in those areas. The upcoming event will likely be no exception. A storm moving into the Ohio Valley will likely cause snow and sleet to move northward along the East Coast. However, as warmer air aloft moves in, the snow and sleet will likely give way to freezing rain and then plain rain. Accumulations will likely be modest.

In parts of Canada where winter has reigned supreme, cities such as Montreal, Toronto and Ottawa will enjoy another helping of snow. Already, Ottawa has picked up 107.8” (273.9 cm) of snow. Boston has a chance to reach or exceed 40” snowfall for the season. After last winter’s disastrously low snowfall in those areas, the return of snow will again be welcome.

My initial snowfall estimates are as follows:

Albany: 3”-6”
Allentown: 1”-3”
Boston: 3”-6”
Burlington: 5”-10”
Caribou: 4”-8”
Concord: 4”-8”
Cleveland: 4”-8”
Detroit: 2”-4”
Harrisburg: 1”-3”
Hartford: 3”-6”
Montreal: 4”-8” (10.1 cm-20.2 cm)
New York City: 1”-3”
Newark: 1”-3”
Ottawa: 3”-6” (7.6 cm-15.2 cm)
Philadelphia: 1” or less
Pittsburgh: 3”-6”
Portland: 4”-8”
Providence: 2”-4”
Toronto: 3”-6” (7.6 cm-15.2 cm)
White Plains: 2”-4”
Worcester: 3”-6”

[tropicana]

here we go again More snow to add to Toronto's snow laden streets and sidewalks.

Closing in on the snowiest February of all time for Toronto 66.5cm set in February 1950.
After tomorrow's snowfall, we will be so close, we will be able to taste the record.

Its the winter that just goes on and on and on (unlike the US east coast cities).

-justin-

[tolakram]

I keep looking at the model runs. GFS predicts Cinty will get a short bout of pretty heavy something. THey are predicting 3-5 inches, but so far the precip has stayed south.

[Stephanie]

I'm not getting a good feeling for the rest of the winter - gut reaction.

From working in the casino industry in Atlantic City, I've seen quite a few President's Day weekends, which are pretty profitable for the casinos this time of the year get "snowed out". We haven't had one decent snow all season as Don alluded to and IMHO, we are now getting to the point of now or never.

[donsutherland1]

My final estimates are as follows:

Albany: 3”-6”
Allentown: 1”-3”
Bangor: 4"-8"
Boston: 3”-6”
Buffalo: 5"-10"
Burlington: 5”-10”
Caribou: 4”-8”
Concord: 4”-8”
Cleveland: 4”-8”
Detroit: 2”-4”
Harrisburg: 1”-3”
Hartford: 3”-6”
Montreal: 4”-8” (10.1 cm-20.2 cm)
New York City: 1”-3”
Newark: 1”-3”
Ottawa: 3”-6” (7.6 cm-15.2 cm)
Philadelphia: 1” or less
Pittsburgh: 3”-6”
Portland: 4”-8”
Providence: 2”-4”
Rochester: 5"-10"
Scranton: 3"-6"
Syracuse: 5"-10"
Toronto: 3”-6” (7.6 cm-15.2 cm)
White Plains: 1”-3”
Worcester: 3”-6”

[tomboudreau]

Already have picked up 3 inches, less then 5 miles south and west of Pittsburgh from this system. Looks like it could be a long day today, with freezing rain and sleet mixing in later this afternoon. Snow began falling, around 7:30 to 8:00 PM last night, which was about 4 to 5 hours ahead of when it should have started, and it has snowed all night. Roads appear to be really bad this morning, when you look at the PennDot cameras. Going to be a slow commute to work this morning.

[JBG]

here we go again More snow to add to Toronto's snow laden streets and sidewalks.

Closing in on the snowiest February of all time for Toronto 66.5cm set in February 1950.
After tomorrow's snowfall, we will be so close, we will be able to taste the record.

Its the winter that just goes on and on and on (unlike the US east coast cities).

-justin-

Interesting. That was also a very mild winter in NYC, with some 70's in January. I believe both were La Ninas. Is this correct?

[Category 5]

Dusting so far here. Currently a lull in the action but that shouldn't last much longer.

[Category 5]

It has now changed to sleet.

[Category 5]

Sleeting pretty hard, got a solid coat of it now.

[Category 5]

Sadly, this has hit at rush hour, and it is complete chaos. Accidents everywhere. Theres a 10 car pileup on the Walt Whitman Bridge, it's just a mess.

[tomboudreau]

We picked up just over 5 inches of snow. It has since changed over to freezing rain and rain. The change over occurred just before rush hour...but the damage was already done. We could change back to snow later tonight or very early tomorrow morning, and we could pick up another inch or so of snow.

[tropicana]

Just incredible scene in toronto...we have had a band of Lake Effect Snow (yes quite rare for Toronto) coming off of Lake Ontario from around 9am this morning in the downtown core, and it has snowed moderate to heavily at times through the morning before the main storm system even got here.

Its been coming down heavily again since about 3pm and the accumulations so far seem daunting, of course thats on top of all the snow from the 2 past storms , so it probably looks worse than it really is. But its unreal, visibility very low outside, heavy snow coming down in my neighborhood in mid-town toronto, the city is staring another massive mulit-million dollar clean up when all is said and done tomorrow.

And the media is hyping 2 additional storms later this week (for friday and sunday) . Closing in on the snowiest February record of all time.

-justin-

[Category 5]

Changed to freezing rain, and now rain.

[Stephanie]

It's almost 33 degrees out now. Pretty darn icy out there.

[Stephanie]

Sadly, this has hit at rush hour, and it is complete chaos. Accidents everywhere. Theres a 10 car pileup on the Walt Whitman Bridge, it's just a mess.

It sure was! I had the pleasure of driving home in it. I HATE ice!!!

[Category 5]

It's rain now, but barely, it literally has to be 32.1 degrees.

[JBG]

But its unreal, visibility very low outside, heavy snow coming down in my neighborhood in mid-town toronto, the city is staring another massive mulit-million dollar clean up when all is said and done tomorrow.

And the media is hyping 2 additional storms later this week (for friday and sunday) . Closing in on the snowiest February record of all time.

Why doesn't Miller call out the Army the way Lastman did?

[Squarethecircle]

We had a two hour school delay here, but because of ice. There was up to two or three millimeters of accumulation in some places, but it all started to melt around 5 hours ago.

[tropicana]

But its unreal, visibility very low outside, heavy snow coming down in my neighborhood in mid-town toronto, the city is staring another massive mulit-million dollar clean up when all is said and done tomorrow.

And the media is hyping 2 additional storms later this week (for friday and sunday) . Closing in on the snowiest February record of all time.

Why doesn't Miller call out the Army the way Lastman did?

Mayor Mel Lastman never lived that one down hahaha that was the January Snow Crisis back in 1999 when storm after storm borught record snowfalls to Toronto..the then mayor Mel Lastman declared a snow emergency and called in the army to clear the white banks away.
He never lived it down, Torontonians became the laughing stocks of all other Canadians, so now the now-mayor David Miller wouldn never dare to call in the army.

Though Toronto is clearly losing this latest battle of snow removal, with storm after storm, so close together and no melting of any consequence taking place. Snowbanks are 5 feet to 7 feet tall, ive seen some even taller, and wid..and there really is no where else to put any more snow... but we have to find place, with more snow coming tomorrow night and even more snow coming Sunday and Monday.

-justin-