OK, OK, I'll say it...."NO MORE!"

azsnowman · #1 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Feb 12, 2008 7:15 pm

I SERIOUSLY need to have my head examined but dang it....I'm gonna SAY IT, "NO MORE!" CALF ROPE, UNCLE! Seriously, Here we go AGAIN, another BIG storm starting out as ALL FRIGGIN' RAIN AGAIN before changing over to cement snow.....all I can say is, "HEP!"

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 122139 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 215 PM MST TUE FEB 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW. && .DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO NRN AZ.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS A STRONG EPAC STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS...BUT TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE STATE...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING. ECMWF AND GFS AND PREVIOUS RUNS ALL INDICATE THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NRN PORTION OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION ON THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS VARIED CONSIDERABLY MAKING QPF AND SNOWFALL FORECASTS CHALLENGING

azsnowman · #2 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Feb 12, 2008 7:17 pm

If this system were ALL snow, I could handle that (even though I've got cabin FEVER and even the wife's looking GOOD :ggreen:

) but ALL this RAIN on top of a MEGA snowpack this time is gonna KILL US!

jinftl · #3 Postby **jinftl** » Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:19 pm

no flood watches or warnings..or even mentioning of flooding... in the latest NWS discussions...maybe things aren't looking as dire today?

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?wfo=fgz&pil=AFD&sid=FGZ&version=0

Scott Patterson · #4 Postby **Scott Patterson** » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:02 pm

100% chance of snow up here:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 107.55&e=1

I agree, rain on top of snow is unpleasant, especially if one happens right after the other. It's like shoveling cement. We don't have to much of that here at this time of year, but it's common in May.

Good luck. I feel for you.

I guess you know of the huge "superflood" of December 1966 in the Grand Canyon region out your way. Estimates say something like 16 inches of rain fell on something like five to six feet of snow. Since the flood took out Anasazi ruins almost 1000 years old, it was the biggest flood in at least a millenium.

If it's just a little rain, at least it's not as bad as that one, if that's any consolation.

azsnowman · #5 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:05 am

jinftl wrote:no flood watches or warnings..or even mentioning of flooding... in the latest NWS discussions...maybe things aren't looking as dire today?

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?wfo=fgz&pil=AFD&sid=FGZ&version=0

That's RIGHT :ggreen:

things ARE looking up....just a LOT of snow now :ggreen:

YES..."RAIN CANCEL!" Now I can breathe a little easier, I was starting to stress just a wee bit after that last castrophic flood 2 weeks ago! I have a crap load of work to do to the backyard e.g. creek bed once it dries up! I lost approx. 10 yards of property due to the washing...the creek used to be approx. 3' wide, it's now 10' wide and a strecth approx. 75' long was widened by 4'!

Now to the important stuff!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1007 PM MST WED FEB 13 2008

...A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..

.A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING AREAS OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA STARTING
TONIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA. THESE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

AZZ011-014-017-141315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.A.0004.080215T0300Z-080215T1900Z/
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...ST. JOHNS..
SPRINGERVILLE...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP
1007 PM MST WED FEB 13 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING..

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN ARIZONA
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 5000-7000 FEET...WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY NOON MST FRIDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

azsnowman · #6 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:06 pm

Let's see...if we get the forecast 14", that would push me OVER 100" since 4 December! Now ain't THAT A KICK in ye old pants, that's MORE snow over the past 3 years COMBINED!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
444 PM MST THU FEB 14 2008

...A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING..

.A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA ABOVE
5500 TO 6000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

AZZ016>018-150745-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0004.080215T0700Z-080216T0700Z/
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES..
SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG
444 PM MST THU FEB 14 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET..

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING...AND WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM 6000 TO 7000 FEET...WITH 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE
7000 FEET.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

#7 Postby **brunota2003** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:09 pm

I wanna see some new pictures of this creek bed gone wild.

pawxguy · #8 Postby **pawxguy** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 8:01 pm

azsnowman,
First off, sounds like an exciting period of time in the wx dept. Thanks for the updates on your region and could you give us an idea on how this abundance of rain and snow is effecting the long term drought.

#9 Postby **azskyman** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 8:09 am

Hey there Snowman. And what a winter it is turning out to be for Arizona, too!!!

Mid-range forecast for later this week (by the 20th) looks like some more rains and snows headed our way by next weekend. The ski resorts have to be in their glory, and those who were concerned about snowpack and a "worsening" drought must surely be resting easier.

Not to mention that the wildflowers in the lower elevations will be incredible over the next four weeks as a result.

Be safe as always.

Steve

#10 Postby **Pebbles** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 4:27 pm

Awwww... hang in there hun! It can't last forever right? *comforts*

TT-SEA · #11 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:53 pm

azsnowman -- I thought you got more snow than that down there! You always talk about being buried in snow. You have only gotten 100 inches in the last 3 years combined???? Weren't you complaining about snow up to the rooftops a couple years ago????

I have gotten just under 100 inches of snow this winter up here at 1,100 feet in elevation (in the Cascade foothills east of Seattle).

64 degrees yesterday and it feels very much like spring!

Here is a picture of my yard at the end of January:

And then another picture taken yesterday:

#12 Postby **brunota2003** » Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:09 pm

All that melted in 19 days?! :eek:

TT-SEA · #13 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:01 am

Most of it was gone in the first week of the month.

jinftl · #14 Postby **jinftl** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:37 pm

Are you sure about the 100" combined for the 3 prior winters combined....in february 2007 you were being buried with 91" for that season alone, with more storms approaching...maybe it was the 2004/05 & 2005/06 seasons that featured little snow....this winter and last have been nothing short of epic for you.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=93105

azsnowman wrote:Let's see...if we get the forecast 14", that would push me OVER 100" since 4 December! Now ain't THAT A KICK in ye old pants, that's MORE snow over the past 3 years COMBINED!

TT-SEA · #15 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 1:41 pm

Dennis is always on here screaming "NO MORE".

He is always buried in snow or being flooded out. And always begging for mercy. :roll:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=58803
_______________________________________________
Here he is 3 years ago reporting 138 inches for the season...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=59911

Hmmmm... you love intense drama huh???

jinftl · #16 Postby **jinftl** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 1:53 pm

It makes for fun reading if nothing else!!! Let's face it, the weather can't always be extreme...we can't have 5 "Storms of the Century" each winter, not every cold front will freeze over Galveston Bay, and not every rainshower over Dakar will be a Cat 5 heading towards Miami Beach...a little creative license keeps us weather nuts coming back for more i'd say!!!

TT-SEA · #17 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:47 pm

Its little strange though... to always be screaming for it to stop when he just wants more.

The other problem is making up numbers.

100 inches is more snow than the last 3 winters combined? Yet... just in the first of those 3 winters he reported 138 inches of snow.

jinftl · #18 Postby **jinftl** » Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:57 pm

right...i mean there is defintely a distinction between weather forecasting and discussing weather. but i agree...once numbers start getting used...temps, wind speed, precip amount...and those are not consistent or questionable, credibility is an issue...

but on the flip side, unless certified by the NWS or something like that, any post shouldn't be taken as gospel...by any of us

TT-SEA wrote:Its little strange though... to always be screaming for it to stop when he just wants more.

The other problem is making up numbers.

100 inches is more snow than the last 3 winters combined? Yet... just in the first of those 3 winters he reported 138 inches of snow.

#19 Postby **Pburgh** » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:20 pm

Ahhhhh, now I remember why I don't come up here ---- you guys are wayyyyyy too harsh. :roll:

Aquawind · #20 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Feb 24, 2008 10:30 am

jinftl wrote:right...i mean there is defintely a distinction between weather forecasting and discussing weather. but i agree...once numbers start getting used...temps, wind speed, precip amount...and those are not consistent or questionable, credibility is an issue...

but on the flip side, unless certified by the NWS or something like that, any post shouldn't be taken as gospel...by any of us

TT-SEA wrote:Its little strange though... to always be screaming for it to stop when he just wants more.

The other problem is making up numbers.

100 inches is more snow than the last 3 winters combined? Yet... just in the first of those 3 winters he reported 138 inches of snow.

Why don't you to just ignore the thread.. it's not like things are exactly flying in this forum. Your better off just keeping your mouths shut on this issue. Anyone reading any post on any forum as to be precise and accurate is asking a bit much or just plain naive. Like it or not AZ is simply posting his thoughts as he sees it. No need to be rude. Nobody is forcing anyone to read it. :roll:

OK, OK, I'll say it...."NO MORE!"

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