February 22-28, 2008 Idea: Mild Start but Possible Cold Endi

[donsutherland1]

The latest weekly ENSO guidance shows the Region 3.4 anomaly falling to -2.0°C. However, the Region 1+2 anomaly has now increased to +0.4°C. These trends could highlight what might be a gradual shift toward a colder regime for March. However, the closing week of February looks to remain unseasonably mild in the East, even as it could conclude with a cold air mass ushered in by a departing storm. Before then, that period could feature a day or two with temperatures soaring into the 50s into New England. Some 60s across the Mid-Atlantic region cannot be ruled out.

Overall, the Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region, and Northeast look to feature above normal precipitation.

Average Regional Temperature Anomalies:
Northeast: Above normal to much above normal
Mid-Atlantic: Above normal to much above normal
Southeast: Above normal
Great Lakes: Above normal
Northern Plains: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Central Plains: Somewhat above normal
Southern Plains: Above normal
Pacific Northwest: Somewhat below normal
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: Near normal to somewhat above normal

Best Guess of Regional Temperature Anomalies (°F):
Northeast: +4° to +6°
Mid-Atlantic: +4° to +6°
Southeast: +2° to +4°
Great Lakes: +2 to +4°
Northern Plains: 0° to +2°
Central Plains: +1° to +3°
Southern Plains: +2° to +4°
Pacific Northwest: -3° to -1°
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: 0° to +2°