PUBLIC INPUT WANTED for NWS proposed changes to warnings

[Chacor]

The NWS is considering changing winter weather warnings and is currently welcoming public input:

NOUS41 KWBC 281549
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...COMMENT REQUEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1050 AM EST THU FEB 28 2008

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM: ELI JACKS
CHIEF...FIRE AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT: CURRENTLY SOLICITING PUBLIC COMMENTS BY APRIL 8 2008
REGARDING A PROPOSED RESTRUCTURING OF SOME NWS WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING PRODUCTS

EFFECTIVE MONDAY SEPTEMBER 1 2008 AT 0001 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL
TIME /UTC/ NWS PROPOSES TO CHANGE THE SUITE OF PRODUCTS USED TO
ADVISE AND WARN PARTNERS AND THE PUBLIC OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER. THE PURPOSE OF THIS PROPOSED CHANGE IS TO SIMPLIFY AND
CLARIFY THE COMMUNICATION AND DISSEMINATION OF EXPECTED WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS.

FEEDBACK FROM MANY OF OUR PARTNERS AND PUBLIC USERS OVER THE PAST
3 YEARS...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM NWS FIELD MANAGERS AND
FORECASTERS...STRONGLY SUGGESTS SERVICE CAN BE IMPROVED BY REDUCING
THE NUMBER OF SPECIFIC WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY
PRODUCTS. THIS PROPOSED REDUCTION IN THE NUMBER OF PRODUCTS WOULD
ENHANCE THE CLARITY AND CONSISTENCY OF NWS WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS.
ALSO THE GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF FORECAST WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS VIA
THE NWS HOME PAGE AND OTHER GRAPHICAL MEANS WOULD BE MORE
UNDERSTANDABLE.

THE PROPOSED RESTRUCTURING OF NWS WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS WOULD BE
ACCOMPLISHED BY COMBINING A NUMBER OF CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING
CATEGORIES WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS. FOR EXAMPLE...CONDITIONS THAT
CURRENTLY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF SEPARATE WINTER WEATHER...
SNOW...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED...AND VTEC-CODED...AS WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. SIMILARLY CONDITIONS THAT CURRENTLY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE
OF SEPARATE WINTER STORM... HEAVY SNOW... AND/OR SLEET WARNINGS
WOULD BE ISSUED...AND VTEC-CODED...AS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. THE
NWS WOULD DISCONTINUE USE OF THE VTEC CODES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISCONTINUED ADVISORY AND WARNING PRODUCTS.

FREEZING RAIN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WOULD
STILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE SEVERITY AND UNIQUENESS OF THEIR
IMPACTS. SIMILARLY...BLIZZARD...ICE STORM...LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED.

AS ALWAYS SPECIFIC INFORMATION RELATING TO THE TYPE OF HAZARD WOULD
BE CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE BODY OF THE ADVISORY OR WARNING PRODUCT.

NO SOFTWARE CHANGES BY NWS PARTNERS OR USERS ARE ANTICIPATED AS A
RESULT OF THIS PROPOSED CHANGE.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SHOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CURRENT AND
PROPOSED ADVISORY AND WARNING CATEGORIES:

TABLE 1 - WINTER ADVISORIES

CURRENT WINTER ADVISORIES PROPOSED WINTER ADVISORIES

FREEZING RAIN ------------------ FREEZING RAIN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW --------------- LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WIND CHILL --------------------- WIND CHILL
WINTER WEATHER ----------------- WINTER WEATHER
SNOW --------------------------- WINTER WEATHER
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ---------- WINTER WEATHER
SLEET -------------------------- WINTER WEATHER
BLOWING SNOW ------------------- WINTER WEATHER

TABLE 2 - WINTER WARNINGS

CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS PROPOSED WINTER WARNINGS

BLIZZARD ----------------------- BLIZZARD
ICE STORM ---------------------- ICE STORM
LAKE EFFECT SNOW --------------- LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WIND CHILL --------------------- WIND CHILL
WINTER STORM ------------------- WINTER STORM
HEAVY SNOW --------------------- WINTER STORM
SLEET -------------------------- WINTER STORM

A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF TABLES 1 AND 2 AND EXAMPLES OF HOW
ADVISORY AND WARNING PRODUCTS WILL BE FORMATTED AS A RESULT OF THIS
PROPOSED CHANGE CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/WINTER/RESOURCES/WSW_EX.PDF

THE NWS WELCOMES PARTNER AND PUBLIC COMMENTS REGARDING THIS
PROPOSED CHANGE. PLEASE SEND YOUR COMMENTS /WITH THE SUBJECT LINE:
COMMENTS ON PROPOSED WINTER WEATHER SIMPLIFICATION/ TO:

ELLIOTT.JACKS@NOAA.GOV

AFTER A REVIEW OF ALL COMMENTS...THE NWS WILL DECIDE BY MAY 1 2008
WHETHER OR NOT TO IMPLEMENT THIS PROPOSED CHANGE.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS PROPOSED CHANGE IN THE
ISSUANCE AND DISSEMINATION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE CONTACT:

PAUL STOKOLS
FIRE AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES BRANCH
1325 EAST WEST HIGHWAY
SILVER SPRING MD 20910
301-713-1867 EXT. 139
PAUL.STOKOLS@NOAA.GOV

OR THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST /WCM/ AT YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

NATIONAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

$$
NNNN

[Stephanie]

Personally, I think that they should call the storm as it is, such as Freezing Rain as Freezing Rain, Sleet as Sleet, etc.

The Winter Storm class is too general and each type of storm signify different types of hazards.

I am going to put in my 2 cents on this one.

[Stephanie]

My e-mail;

I personally think that a certain type of Winter Storm should be referred to as the type it is. "Winter Weather" and "Winter Storm" are too general in my opinion. Sleet, Freezing Rain, Snow and Heavy Snow all have their own distinct characteristics and hazards. I believe that the public needs to be made aware of the specific weather anticipated within that 24 - 48 hour time span so they can prepare accordingly.

Thank you for the opportunity to share my opinion on this matter.

[JonathanBelles]

I agree with the both of you, and I did send an email.

[JonathanBelles]

Just got this email back....

Mr. Belles,

Thanks very much for taking the time to comment. We
will include it in our analysis of the results.

In case it's helpful, I just wanted to clarify that if
we were to move forward with this change, the specific
information you desire would still be prominently featured
in the warning or advisory text itself (for example, "A
Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Heavy Snow" or
"A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Snow and
Blowing Snow").

Again, I appreciate your comment!

Regards,
Eli Jacks

[wall_cloud]

I prefer the change. Ever seen a watch/warning/advisory map for a winter scenario that covers multiple NWS domains? There can be 5 or 6 different products issued for on storm. That's got to be more confusing the public than a generic product that can be tailored to meet the needs of each storm.

From an NWS standpoint, if you issue a freezing rain advisory and you get a little snow mixed in, you missed it (from a verification standpoint). This gives little leeway to a forecaster and will allow them to make adjustments as the scenario plays out. For instance, if a forecaster issues a Heavy Snow Warning, then decides that they may see a bit of freezing drizzle as well, they would change to a Winter Storm Warning (to cover multiple precip types). Well, you may get a light glaze from the drizzle and 10 inches of snow. The Winter Storm verified nicely, but the Heavy Snow Warning does not, since it was changed. Don't know if it all makes sense or not, but from a verification standpoint, the proposed changes are a welcome sight (very similar to pre 2005 I believe)

[Stephanie]

That's pretty much the same reply I received from him fact. I'm glad that he did clarify that the text will include the specific type of weather we can expect from the winter storm.

Here's his reply and my response back;

Date: Sun, 2 Mar 2008 17:24:29 -0800 (PST)
From: "STEPHANIE MILLER" <stephaniem@prodigy.net> Add to Address Book Add Mobile Alert
Subject: Re: COMMENTS ON PROPOSED WINTER WEATHER SIMPLIFICATION
To: Elliott.Jacks@noaa.gov
Thank you for the clarification. I'm glad that information will be a part of the text of the Advisory or Warning.

I am a Moderator for a weather website called storm2k.org. One of our members had posted this in our weather forum. I've noticed that another member has responded as well.

I invite you to stop by at some point. We have many different professional mets and a lot of great, talented amateurs that are very enthusiastic about all weather.

Again, I appreciate your quick reply and that clarification.

Sincerely,

Stephanie Miller

Elliott.Jacks@noaa.gov wrote:
Thanks very much for taking the time to comment! We
will include it along with the others in our analysis
process.

I understand your desire for specific information. Just
in case it helps to clarify - if we were to move forward
with this change, the specific information you desire
would still be prominently featured in the warning or
advisory text itself (for example, "A Winter Storm Warning
is in effect for Heavy Snow" or "A Winter Weather Advisory
is in effect for Snow and Blowing Snow").

Additionally, we would plan to retain specific warnings and
advisories for freezing rain, as the impact of freezing rain
is very distinct when compared to some of the other winter
weather hazards that we propose grouping.

Again, thanks for responding..

Regards,
Eli Jacks

[JonathanBelles]

I didnt even think about sending him an invite to s2k. oops lol.

[Stephanie]

I didnt even think about sending him an invite to s2k. oops lol.

N/P!

I figured that being a staff member, I'd be remiss in NOT inviting him.

[Stephanie]

Here's his second reply back to me!

Date: Sun, 02 Mar 2008 21:59:29 -0500
From: Elliott.Jacks@noaa.gov Add to Address Book Add Mobile Alert
Subject: COMMENTS ON PROPOSED WINTER WEATHER SIMPLIFICATION
To: "STEPHANIE MILLER" <stephaniem@prodigy.net>

You're most welcome!

I did just stop by the site and see that at least one
other gentleman who responded to me is also in the
storm2k.org community. Good to see folks are talking
about this topic and I welcome as many responses as
possible to aid us in our decision process.

Regards,
Eli Jacks

[JonathanBelles]

Score

[vbhoutex]

I would encourage as many of our members as possible to respond to this request. I would think those in the more Northern climes would be especially interested in this. We need to do all we can to support the NWS imo.

[Stephanie]

I agree David.

Where I live, I'm constantly on the snow or rain/mix line since I'm only about 50 miles from the shore. Ice is almost as common as snow around here. I had a car accident WAY BACK when I was on my way to a college class for an exam. It was sleeting out and I was doing the speed limit. I began to realize that my car was sliding sideways off of the road. I pumped my brakes to slow down and pretty much aimed my car at a telephone pole (it was either that or the ditch on the other side of it). I didn't want to slam on my brakes because I knew I would go out of control and had no idea if anyone was around me. Anyway, the car was totalled and so was the telephone pole. I had 12 stitches in my eyebrow from my head hitting the steering wheel.

Sleet you at least KNOW is there. Freezing rain and black ice are quiet demons that sneak up on you. Anyone would take snow over the other two any day of the week. This is why I think it is really important to make sure that people know the type of winter weather that is anticipated because it can take many shapes and forms. I'm glad that they are still going to keep that in their text.

[vbhoutex]

Here is my email and his response. They are definitely interested in our input. I hope many are participating.

Mr. Van Bergen,

Thanks for your note and for making me aware of a possible perception
issue that,
quite honestly, I hadn't realized might exist. I appreciate the
opportunity to respond.

Quite simply, the issue of verification did not enter in our discussions
at all as our
team put together the proposal contained within the Public Information
Statement
(PNS). In fact, as stated in the PNS, the sole motivation is to
simplify our winter
weather products with the goal of maximize their understandability and
reducing
confusion - particularly in this era of multi-colored map displays.

Again - I am grateful for the opportunity to speak to this issue to
clarify this point and
will be glad to provide any additional information to you and STORM2K as
needed.

Regards,
Eli Jacks

David & Susan Van Bergen wrote:
>
> As a administrator and member of STORM2K.org I feel that I must
> respond to your request for input and will be encouraging our members
> to do so also.
>
> I live in Houston so we wouldn't be as affected by changes as some of
> our other members in more Northern climes.
>
> In some aspects I see a need for the simplification, especially for
> the general public as opposed to those such as me that are members of
> weather communities on the internet. My concern would be pretty much
> the same as others I have read. Is this going to oversimplify too
> much or make it easier to get a good forecast verification? I don't
> think the forecast verification should even enter into the equation if
> that is indeed part of the reasoning being used. Admittedly the
> general public does not care as much about the specifics as much as a
> person such as myself, but I think the NWS has to be careful about too
> much simplification so that everyone can be reasonably prepared for
> the different types of weather that can happen, even in one CWA.
>
> To say the least we appreciate the work our NWS does. Thanks!
>
> David Van Bergen(aka vbhoutex)
> STORM2K.ORG Administrator

[brunota2003]

Mmm...I have read through it the day it was posted. I have not commented on it yet, though, and will do that tomorrow after school!

EDIT: Can this thread be stickied? Or put as a global announcement (so it shows in all subsections of the forum?)

[Stephanie]

Mmm...I have read through it the day it was posted. I have not commented on it yet, though, and will do that tomorrow after school!

EDIT: Can this thread be stickied? Or put as a global announcement (so it shows in all subsections of the forum?)

Great idea!

It should stay in the Winter Weather Forum since it has to do with Winter Weather. I'll keep this as a sticky for a while.

[bob rulz]

I haven't really come to this website since the middle of last winter (maybe February) until a couple of weeks ago when the tropics started acting up. Have they come to a conclusion on this and by chance are they still accepting feedback?

[vbhoutex]

I'm not sure if they are still accepting comments or not. Won't hurt to try though.