Numerous freeze advisories for the S. Plains (Mon/Tues)

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS has been trending colder and colder with the next shot of cold air set to arrive Sunday into Monday and then last through midweek. The latest run now indicates the possibility of freezing weather well south into Oklahoma (almost to north Texas) by next Tuesday morning behind this front...



If this plays out, then the first freeze would be about a week earlier than normal in Oklahoma City.

[vbhoutex]

Some local OCM's are predicting 42 for MOnday morning here in Houston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS is not quite as cold, but it still looks chilly for the first part of next week.

Here are the low temperatures the GFS is predicting for Oklahoma city...

MON MORNING: 39F
TUES MORNING: 34F
WED MORNING: 42F

And here are the low temperatures it is predicting for Dallas...

MON MORNING: 46F
TUES MORNING: 35F
WED MORNING: 47F

[vbhoutex]

Some local OCM's are predicting 42 for MOnday morning here in Houston.

And just as quickly they have backed off of it without explanation and are now showing low 50's. Gotta love the OCM's.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
351 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF FA WITH VARIABLE MID CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN 1/2 -1/3. 8H WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25-35KT RANGE
TODAY SO GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FAR WESTERN OK AND FROST ADVISORY
ELSEWHERE WITH EXCEPTION OF NC OK. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN HALF OF FA BY FRIDAY MORNING SO WILL LIKELY SEE
NUMEROUS SHELTER TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST. A
LITTLE CONCERNED THAT SOME MID CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND AS UPPER JET
OVER WESTERN OK SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH POTENTIAL THERE
HOWEVER.

MORE COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEST AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN PUSHING
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT ONE SO HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINT TEMPS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FREEZE WARNINGS OR FROST ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 36 61 36 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 61 35 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 36 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 51 33 63 36 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 38 58 38 / 40 30 0 0
DURANT OK 67 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS is now showing a low of 31F in Oklahoma City next Tuesday morning after a high of just 53F on Monday afternoon.

[Portastorm]

The NWSFO Austin/San Antonio is buying into the idea of a major front early next week. Check out our forecast for Monday ... bbbrrrr!

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY.
MUCH COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. MUCH COLDER. LOWS 37 TO
42.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS has suddenly switched to a warmer scenario and is now showing a low of only 40F on Tuesday morning in OKC.

Will the 00z continue this trend? Let's wait and see.

[CaptinCrunch]

The 18z GFS has suddenly switched to a warmer scenario and is now showing a low of only 40F on Tuesday morning in OKC.

Will the 00z continue this trend? Let's wait and see.

The GFS is a flawed map, the EURO or NAM for a better run

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest model runs have been trending back colder with tomorrow's front.

The 6z GFS is now calling for a low of 35F in OKC on Tuesday morning. It could potentially still trend colder than this though, so the first freeze is still a possibility.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like the colder trend, started with the 6z run, continues tonight. Here is a peak at the last 3 runs of the GFS...

12z GFS = 29F next Tuesday morning.

18z GFS = 28F next Tuesday morning.

00z GFS = 30F next Tuesday morning.

**All numbers are for OKC**

[Ed Mahmoud]

Obviously, the important question, will it rain, and will temps be comfortable, near FTW/AFW next weekend for the Nationwide Series and Sprint Cup Series for the Dickies 500 race weekend.

So far, so good...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dewpoints are on a downward trend this evening. A few hours ago they were in the low to mid 30s, but now they have slipped into the 19-24F range. Actual surface temperatures are near 50F now, but as north winds continue to pull lower dewpoints into the region overnight, we are likely to awake to numbers in the middle 30s by tomorrow. Then, tomorrow night is when the freeze is possible. As winds go light and skies remain clear, the temperature could easily slip to 32F or below across most of the OKC area by sunrise on Tuesday.

If we do in fact hit the freezing mark, then we would be doing so about a week earlier than normal.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well...it happened. Unexpectedly, we managed to fall to freezing this morning. We were only forecast to hit 36F, but as you can see from this still shot of the Oklahoma Mesonet reporting stations, we got much colder than that...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The dewpoint is sitting near 10F this afternoon under sunny skies. Once the sun sets later this evening and the winds go calm, I have no doubt in my mind that another freeze is on the way. In fact, I wouldn't even be surprised if we approached the middle to upper 20s by Tuesday AM here in OKC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BRRR...

Here is the latest forecast for my location:

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 27. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

[jasons2k]

brrr! Makes me glad I don't live up in Oklahoma! Our upper 30's will be just cold enough for me

[cheezyWXguy]

hitting 30 here in N dallas tonight. Gonna be a cold one woooo

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is an image of the Oklahoma Mesonet station temperatures:



As you can see, temperatures are already starting to nosedive this evening. As of 6:48pm, we are already down to 47F.

[Dionne]

4:18 AM Tuesday.....my temperature alarm goes off.......32F.

I've got this mini weather station that reports back inside the house on a digital read out. I've never had the alarm go off before and didn't know what the heck it was....fumbling around in the dark....first thinking it was our CO2 monitor.....then telling my wife to shut off her darn cell phone alarm (LOL).....only to discover it was my newest toy!

I've been in the south since '95....this is the earliest freeze I've experienced down here.