![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
With winter 2009-2010 on the horizon, I have done some preliminary research. It appears we in Texas will be facing a winter with a cold (negative) PDO and an El Nino of weak-to-moderate intensity. I tried to identify PDO figures and ENSO figures close to what we are seeing now and what is projected for this winter. In doing that I found three winters that appear to have these two parameters:
1963-64, 1965-66, and 1994-95
For central and south Texas the winter of 1963-64 was moderately cold/below average with slightly below average precipitation. The Dallas area reported the second greatest number of freezes (61) in record history so it was pretty darn cold in north Texas. There also was a significant snow event that winter in central and north Texas.
The winter of 1965-66 was odd in that December 1965 was a blow torch for much of the nation but the bottom dropped out, temperature wise, for January and February 1966. Those latter two months featured below normal to well-below normal temperatures with slightly above average precipitation.
The winter of 1994-95 was, weirdly enough, well above normal temperature wise with only average precipitation. I'm not sure what happened here but it is the oddball in the group of three.
What does all of this mean? Well, those of us hoping for an El Nino rainfall bonanza may be disappointed. While all three of these years didn't have above average precip, they also were not below average either. Normal precip amounts. Cold PDOs with El Nino usually mean sporadic precip events throughout the winter but we may not see that "Pineapple Express" jet stream that is continually bringing storm systems over us ... such as in moderate to strong El Nino years.
But I would say that the chances of us seeing a colder than normal winter look decent based on this data. Yes, I realize there are many other elements at play and that is why I have my disclaimer up top. I know just enough here to find some data that makes me scratch my thick skull and think "hmmm... interesting."
I look forward to any and all comments and let the discussion begin!
Waiting patiently for Lucy,
Portastorm