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Last years Analog: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=103272
October 31, 2009 is the first Halloween to average below the daily mean in 3 yrs.
October 31, 2009........H/74.....L/41......avg/58..... -3 below avg
October closed out at -4.5 below the monthly avg for temps (second month in a row for below avg monthly temps) and +3.98 above for precip (October was the 6th wettest on record @ 8.05" recorded at DFW Airport)(I had almost 13" at the house in sourthern Tarrant Co) on a side note October 2009 went down as the cloudiest on record.
How will the winter of 09/10 play out? To start with we are in an El Nino year that is forecast to be moderate at the least by the first of the New Year. This will give North TX a better than average chance for lower monthly temperatures, a higher amount of monthly rain fall, and a better chance at frozen precip.
North Texas has already felt the effects of El Nino through September and October with back to back record rains, and lower than average monthly temperatures. Heading into the last week of October I said that we were heading in to a more zonal pattern across the US by just looking at the atmospheric weather pattern., and that the pattern should last through the first 10 days on November or so.
Today is November 10th and the zonal pattern is still in place and looks to remain in place for another 6 to 10 days across the US. Thanks to the zonal pattern we got a rare late season Hurricane (Ida) out of it. Somewhere around the 16th on November we should see the changeover to more of a Sept-Oct weather pattern with more ridging in the east and low pressure systems digging out across the west.
Looking toward Thanksgiving I think we’ll be seeing much colder weather pushing down the central and eastern US. I think for us here in NTX Thanksgiving may be cloudy cold and wet with rain. I don’t see any frozen precip in the near future for NTX, at least not until around the 2nd week of December when we may see the type of weather we saw in Sept-Oct, just with the much colder temps in place.
As I said before, our NTX winter will be colder and wetter than the past 2 winters. El Nino combined with a warm polar winter will enhance our chances for prolonged periods of cold weather and bring a high than average chance at some frozen precip.