Valdez Blockbuster Snowstorm

[tropicana]

Tuesday Dec 15, 2009

VALDEZ AK
...OVER 3 FEET OF RECORD SNOWFALL IN VALDEZ...

THE VALDEZ WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MEASURED 38.7 INCHES OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY WHICH BLOWS AWAY THE PREVIOUS DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD
FOR DECEMBER 15TH OF 10.1 INCHES SET BACK IN 1991.
THIS MAKES IT THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR SNOWFALL IN THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER...THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 31.7 INCHES SET ON DECEMBER 30TH
2002.

THE 38.7 INCHES THAT FELL TODAY ALSO BECAME THE 2ND HIGHEST ALL TIME
24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD...ONLY 8.8 INCHES SHY OF THE 47.5 INCHES THAT
FELL ON JANUARY 16TH 1990.

Anchorage:-
A storm stalled over Southcentral this week, dumping snow on the region, wreaking havoc on the Tuesday evening commute and prompting the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for Anchorage and the Mat-Su
The National Weather Service was predicting snow would continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday and dump an additional 7 to 14 inches, with the highest amounts near the mountains, by the time it tapers off Wednesday afternoon.

The Mat-Su was expected to be bombarded with between 8 and 15 inches of snow from the storm, according to the Weather Service. Snow will also fall on the Kenai Peninsula, though it is not expected to be as severe.

The advisory expires at 4 p.m., and police, already experiencing a deluge of wrecks Tuesday night, were expecting problems to continue into the commutes Wednesday.
"When there's additional snow we always anticipate additional traffic problems," police spokeswoman Anita Shell said. "Motorists are advised to slow down for icy road conditions and increase the distance between yourself and the vehicle in front of you."
Snow began falling early Monday and has continued because the system has stalled overhead, according to the Weather Service. The heaviest snowfalls have been reported around the coast, but comparatively light snowfalls from the Kenai to the Mat-Su were starting to add up.
In the Anchorage area, the Weather Service reported 6 inches of snow in Eagle River and just over 2 inches at the Weather Service office in Sand Lake as of 5 p.m. Tuesday. In the Mat-Su, Trunk Road at the Palmer-Wasilla Highway checked in at 8 inches.

The deepest snow in the region fell in Valdez, which saw nearly 39 inches, according to the Weather Service.

Between midnight and 5:30 p.m., Anchorage police responded to 52 accidents, including nine with minor injuries. There were also 60 vehicles in distress, 30 percent of which were on the Glenn Highway, according to police.

[Dionne]

Parts of south-central Alaska from Valdez over Thompson Pass and in Girdwood (Alyeska ski resort) frequently record over 900 inches of snow per year. The Alyeska resort is reporting almost 200 inches so far this season. What we call "Chugach powder" (for the Chugach mountain range) is heavy wet snow from storms coming in off the Gulf of Alaska. It's not at all like the light fluffy snow you see in Utah and Colorado. Ski conditions from these snow falls range from the worst you can possibly imagine with extreme avalanche hazards to the most unbelievable powder experience of a lifetime. Skiers travel from all over the world travel to heli-ski the Chugach range.

[brunota2003]

they get over 3 foot of snow in a day, and only put out a winter weather advisory?! If that were to fall in some places that I've lived at, they'd issue a end of the world warning

[tropicana]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VALDEZ AK
1000 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009


...OVER 5 FEET OF RECORD SNOWFALL IN VALDEZ...

ON WEDNESDAY THE VALDEZ WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE RECORDED 21.4 INCHES
OF SNOW. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6 INCHES SET BACK IN
1975.

THE VALDEZ WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MEASURED 38.7 INCHES OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY WHICH BLEW AWAY THE PREVIOUS DAILY SNOWFALL
RECORD FOR DECEMBER 15TH OF 10.1 INCHES SET BACK IN 1991.

THIS MAKES IT THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER...THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 31.7 INCHES SET ON DECEMBER 30TH
2002.

THE 38.7 INCHES THAT FELL TUESDAY ALSO BECAME THE 2ND HIGHEST ALL
TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD...ONLY 8.8 INCHES SHY OF THE 47.5 INCHES
THAT FELL ON JANUARY 16TH 1990.

2.04 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED ON TUESDAY WHICH BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.96 INCHES SET BACK IN 2005.


TOP 10 HIGHEST SNOWFALL FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN A ROW

FEBRUARY 4 TO 6 1996 74.6 INCHES
DECEMBER 14 TO 16 2009 68.2 INCHES
JANUARY 15 TO 17 1990 66.2 INCHES
FEBRUARY 5 TO 7 1978 60.7 INCHES
DECEMBER 30 2002 TO JAN 01 2003 55.5 INCHES
JANUARY 27 TO 29 1973 53.2 INCHES
FEBRUARY 4 TO 6 1993 51.3 INCHES
MARCH 30 1999 TO APRIL 1 1999 50.6 INCHES
MARCH 14 TO 16 1995 48.8 INCHES
JANUARY 23 TO 25 1989 48.0 INCHES

[Sanibel]

While some seem to be more interested in taking the alternative view, this kind of sign of more moisture being in the atmosphere fulfills Global Warming predictions. It should be pointed out.

[shibumi]

While some seem to be more interested in taking the alternative view, this kind of sign of more moisture being in the atmosphere fulfills Global Warming predictions. It should be pointed out.

The weather anywhere anytime can NEVER be used to logically support any supposition on climate change....no matter what one's belief or no matter what the reality is...

[Sanibel]

While some seem to be more interested in taking the alternative view, this kind of sign of more moisture being in the atmosphere fulfills Global Warming predictions. It should be pointed out.

The weather anywhere anytime can NEVER be used to logically support any supposition on climate change....no matter what one's belief or no matter what the reality is...

I totally disagree and say this is predicted scientific proof attached to sound scientific reasoning.


It takes a lot of moisture to make that much snow. We're talking shattering the record by 28 inches! If you relate this to GW prediction you could say that GW shifts in normal seasonal changes have moved deeper winter events to the shoulder seasons. 28 inches is hard to hide in the background noise.


I would even go so far as to speculate a scientific cause from GW atmospheric moisture forced up against this cooling correction.

[shibumi]

I totally disagree and say this is predicted scientific proof attached to sound scientific reasoning.

It takes a lot of moisture to make that much snow. We're talking shattering the record by 28 inches! If you relate this to GW prediction you could say that GW shifts in normal seasonal changes have moved deeper winter events to the shoulder seasons. 28 inches is hard to hide in the background noise.

I would even go so far as to speculate a scientific cause from GW atmospheric moisture forced up against this cooling correction.

Wow..OK...we are all free to believe what we wish....but there really is absolutely no scientific leg to stand on for such a supposition.

Where to begin.....

Records:
I dare say records of snowfalls have only been kept for the past 100 years or so for that area...probably even less. Looking quickly for weather records for Valdez finds a chart of record high and lows for each month...not one of these dates is prior to 1972....
http://www.valdezalaska.org/history/history.html
Wunderground has temp records at one site from 1964....so perhaps much less than 100 years of such records have been kept. That is a very very small slice of time to be recording precipitation to say the recent snowfall is even unprecedented, much less a record....it is only a record as long as the records have been kept.

Normal versus Average:
Next....weather is made up of extremes...there is no such thing as "normal" in weather, only "average" and that is only based on the time frame the records have been kept (all assuming the way in which measurements are done is reliable and consistent which is another story). Who is to say what "normal" is? It's all very myopic..we remember what we want about the weather....Records are broken every day...all over the world...it has been so, is so, and will always be so...that is just the nature of the variety of weather...if we were talking about the weather as data points we are trying to fit a curve to, we would say that the standard deviation is very high....

Climate Change and Today's Weather:
What does climate change mean to the daily weather event....we all want to point to a discrete event and say that is proof of something.....but our climate and it's attending weather is the most complex system man has ever tried to model. For some reason we all have decided that what we think of as "normal" is a set thing and a good thing...when in fact the climate is always changing...areas of the globe undergo warming, cooling, wetter, and drier...and this all happens during warming phases AND cooling phases of the climate. No discrete event can nor should ever be used to prove or disprove such a hugely complex thing as the weather.....

It makes as much sense to say that the earliest snow in history (recorded history that is) and the first time measurable snow has been recorded along most of the Gulf south two years in a row is a sure sign in global cooling...it doesn't....nor can it be used to say it is a sure sign of global warming....


That is my opinion as best I can think to state it......you are entitled to your own..it's all good!

[Dionne]

Everyone is acting like a 3' dump is a big deal. For this region it is normal. The really big snowfalls occur in March. The amount of snowfall can vary greatly over short distances and elevation. It can be raining at sea level......where the mountains start and be a white out at timberline......which is low at 60N latitude. A mid winter melt with Chinook Winds (a term coined long before the meltdown scare tactics) can happen and bring ambient above freezing when you least expect it. Drastic weather changes are common in the far north. This is nothing new.

[weatherguy425]

How is it normal if they set a record?

[brunota2003]

WHICH BLOWS AWAY THE PREVIOUS *DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD*

Not the record for the most ever amount of snow Alaska has received.

[cheezyWXguy]

I totally disagree and say this is predicted scientific proof attached to sound scientific reasoning.

It takes a lot of moisture to make that much snow. We're talking shattering the record by 28 inches! If you relate this to GW prediction you could say that GW shifts in normal seasonal changes have moved deeper winter events to the shoulder seasons. 28 inches is hard to hide in the background noise.

I would even go so far as to speculate a scientific cause from GW atmospheric moisture forced up against this cooling correction.

Wow..OK...we are all free to believe what we wish....but there really is absolutely no scientific leg to stand on for such a supposition.

Where to begin.....

Records:
I dare say records of snowfalls have only been kept for the past 100 years or so for that area...probably even less. Looking quickly for weather records for Valdez finds a chart of record high and lows for each month...not one of these dates is prior to 1972....
http://www.valdezalaska.org/history/history.html
Wunderground has temp records at one site from 1964....so perhaps much less than 100 years of such records have been kept. That is a very very small slice of time to be recording precipitation to say the recent snowfall is even unprecedented, much less a record....it is only a record as long as the records have been kept.

Normal versus Average:
Next....weather is made up of extremes...there is no such thing as "normal" in weather, only "average" and that is only based on the time frame the records have been kept (all assuming the way in which measurements are done is reliable and consistent which is another story). Who is to say what "normal" is? It's all very myopic..we remember what we want about the weather....Records are broken every day...all over the world...it has been so, is so, and will always be so...that is just the nature of the variety of weather...if we were talking about the weather as data points we are trying to fit a curve to, we would say that the standard deviation is very high....

Climate Change and Today's Weather:
What does climate change mean to the daily weather event....we all want to point to a discrete event and say that is proof of something.....but our climate and it's attending weather is the most complex system man has ever tried to model. For some reason we all have decided that what we think of as "normal" is a set thing and a good thing...when in fact the climate is always changing...areas of the globe undergo warming, cooling, wetter, and drier...and this all happens during warming phases AND cooling phases of the climate. No discrete event can nor should ever be used to prove or disprove such a hugely complex thing as the weather.....

It makes as much sense to say that the earliest snow in history (recorded history that is) and the first time measurable snow has been recorded along most of the Gulf south two years in a row is a sure sign in global cooling...it doesn't....nor can it be used to say it is a sure sign of global warming....


That is my opinion as best I can think to state it......you are entitled to your own..it's all good!

greatest. post. ever.
I totally agree

[Dionne]

How is it normal if they set a record?

Read the original post that started this thread. Large snowfall dumps are not uncommon in south central Alaska.

[ValdezAK]

I appreciate Shibumi's comments. I think they are full of wisdom. It is ignorant for someone to take one event and blame it on climate change. When the jet stream buckles in ways similiar to rivers you will get all kinds of extreme events. I believe we need more years (probably hundreds) of solid accurate data before we can truly say that any one event is extreme.

This storm event was substantial for Valdez in that a event like this happens every decade or so (from the limited climate data that we have... less than 100 years worth). We received a total of 77 inches of snowfall from 9pm Sunday evening (12-13-09) through 9pm Thursday (12-17-09) evening (6.4 feet). The liquid amount in this totaled to 4.25" which is about an average 18 to 1 snow to liquid ratio. The peak of the snow event in Valdez was between 6-7pm on Tues 12/15 when the 1 hour snowfall amount was 4.8 inches (0.19" liquid)... 25:1 ratio at 31 degrees F.

Just for your information... There are two locations within Valdez proper that give observations... the Valdez airport (PAVD) and the city of Valdez (PAVW). The airport has a FAA contracted observer while the NWS has an satellite office in Valdez. The NWS office has moved a couple of times within a 1 mile radius since it started taking records in 1972. There were records going back to the early 1900s that were taken at Ft. Liscum (now where the Alyeska Pipeline is) and Old Towne Valdez.

The snowfall amounts that were used for Valdez were the official NWS amounts. Any other report could have been due to "visual estimations", varying degrees of skill in observing, varying locations etc etc. It's important to compare apples to apples...

During the 37 years of NWS WSO data, there were 4 times that Valdez experienced 3 day total over 60 inches:
1)Feb 4-6 1996 74.6 inches (Interesting to note the East coast blizzard Jan 1-8 1996)
2)Dec 14-16 2009 68.2 inches (4 day total was 77 inches)
3)Jan 15-17 1990 66.2 inches
4)Feb 5-7 1978 60.7 inches (infamous New England blizzard of Feb 5-7 1978)
(note these amounts were taken from official 6 hourly totals)

Now if you look into the Old Town Valdez records before that... which were somewhat discontinuous at times...and measured at 24 hour intervals, there were two 3-day events greater than 60 inches:
1)Feb 14-16 1928 119 inches
(could have been higher if they had been taking 6 hourly observations!)
2)Dec 27-29 1955 66 inches
Feb 3-5 1927 58 inches (came close!)


Some of my personal thoughts are that due to the moderately warm ENSO we are experiencing plus many other countless tele-connection oscillations that we may have not even discovered yet, and normal seasonal cycles etc., the long-wave pattern shifts into a highly amplified pattern midwinter. This time around, the arctic vortex over northern Canada split into two... the one vortex arced around northern AK straight south into western AK. And because it virtually got separated from both the sub-tropical and polar jets, it was able to slowly rotate over SW AK for days. And when it finally edged eastwards on Dec 15th, that is when the low spun up in the western PWS along the arctic frontal boundary.

I think it would be a very interesting study for someone to go back and see if this kind of pattern occurred during the other peak snowfall periods for Valdez.

Other miscellaneous numbers from the december event (unofficial):
Valdez Airport (3.5 miles NE of Valdez): 48" (3.87" liquid) 24 hour measurements
Thompson Pass(20 miles E of Valdez): 48" (3.30" liquid) 24 hour measurement (liquid from core samples)
5 miles east of Valdez: 58" (3.36" liquid) 24 hour measurements
Sugarloaf Snotel(550 ft 4mi S of Valdez): 45" (3.80" liquid) Hourly measurements from instruments
Mt Eyak Snotel(1400 ft near Cordova): 29" (4.30" liquid) Hourly measurements from instruments

Interesting to note that the Mt Eyak Snotel had 4.3" of liquid which was almost exactly what the NWS measured. This would make sense because the low level wind flow was from the SSW...but one would think that the 3000 to 4600 ft mtns to the south of Port Valdez would shadow some of this...

[Dionne]

Good job there Valdez. Thanx.