Texas Winter 2022-2023
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Itryatgolf
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
No winters are the same, but anything similar to feb 2021 I would be very grateful and blessed for something very similar. So far it looks cold, but way the models have been is reason to be apprehensive
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Itryatgolf wrote:Something else to consider is I we can get a +AAM, that would slow the flow down somewhat also. I mentioned if the wpo and epo go negative, that's typically a harbinger of a cold outbreak soon after
The thing you learn with this board, more often than not, when the general consensus sees a pattern shift and the guidance eventually caves to the idea something usually happens. The false negatives is when one run or two 'model' runs when you're dependent on the MJO, or EPO, or whatever singular index to deliver.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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BTAYLOR5021
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ThunderSleetDreams
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- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I believe Joey B is aroused.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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nathanc1969
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- Location: San Angelo, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I keep seeing people refer to February of 2021 when we had the massive cold spell, but wasn't that February of 2020?
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I believe Joey B is aroused.
Yeah, that GFS model is making him worried because the snowpack can keep the cold air around for even longer! He said that the 12z GFS is December 1983/1989 all over again!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
nathanc1969 wrote:I keep seeing people refer to February of 2021 when we had the massive cold spell, but wasn't that February of 2020?
No, February 2021 was absolutely insane. February 2020 wasn't much.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
The snowfall signal near the end of the 18z GEFS is still insanely strong.
Whatever that storm system is has a very high ceiling potential for snowfall.
Whatever that storm system is has a very high ceiling potential for snowfall.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8921
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:This is from the 12z GFS model, but WOW!
https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1600613431052320769
Love it! I really wonder where orangeblood is..
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:This is from the 12z GFS model, but WOW!
https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1600613431052320769
Love it! I really wonder where orangeblood is..
I think that you may have spoke too soon!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ThunderSleetDreams
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- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Seeing talk of the Ural ridge showing up on models which is a key variable for the SPV to be attacked.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Itryatgolf
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- Location: Jackson tn
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:This is from the 12z GFS model, but WOW!
https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1600613431052320769
12zeps is similar with epo. I'm still apprehensive with the models due to much volatility right now. -wpo and epo are the real big teleconnections for cold if you really want it
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
nathanc1969 wrote:I keep seeing people refer to February of 2021 when we had the massive cold spell, but wasn't that February of 2020?
I don't remember anything in February 2020 2021 was the power issues
But I am having the same flashbacks with some of these models if they stay consistent. Definitely the feeling of something big coming
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#neversummer
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Itryatgolf
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:This is from the 12z GFS model, but WOW!
https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1600613431052320769
That's the 12z gfs ensembles not gfs. Big difference
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Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I’m not buying 2021 outcome but one thing to note is all models were on board with that outcome but the Euro, which was super late to the game. Once that flipped however it was game on.
This has some pattern consensus which is a good lead indicator something is gonna happen, I’m just not buying all the extreme maps.
This has some pattern consensus which is a good lead indicator something is gonna happen, I’m just not buying all the extreme maps.
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"
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Itryatgolf
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- Posts: 305
- Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:04 pm
- Location: Jackson tn
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Brent wrote:nathanc1969 wrote:I keep seeing people refer to February of 2021 when we had the massive cold spell, but wasn't that February of 2020?
I don't remember anything in February 2020 2021 was the power issues
But I am having the same flashbacks with some of these models if they stay consistent. Definitely the feeling of something big coming
I kinda have that feeling also Brent but still early. At least on 12zgfs, looked eerily similar to feb 2021 but less cold so far
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Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Itryatgolf wrote:Iceresistance wrote:This is from the 12z GFS model, but WOW!
https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1600613431052320769
That's the 12z gfs ensembles not gfs. Big difference
Oh wait! I just noticed that! The blue line is the GEFS (Control).
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Itryatgolf
- Category 1
- Posts: 305
- Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:04 pm
- Location: Jackson tn
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Iceresistance wrote:This is from the 12z GFS model, but WOW!
https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1600613431052320769
That's the 12z gfs ensembles not gfs. Big difference
Oh wait! I just noticed that! The blue line is the GEFS (Control).
12zgfs has a teleconnection package also on weatherbell
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