Texas Winter 2022-2023

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What's the chatter on natural gas futures for the next month or so? Thinking about throwing some money at UNG ETF.

The leveraged ETF BOIL is a wild one to play

That’s a bingo! Love it

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Exp WPC clusters

[orangeblood]

Exp WPC clusters

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/2022120800_3_day_average_cluster_hgt_500_forecasts_k_means_conus.png.bd7fada5474db21a4ff75c35bf239bac.png

That ULL crashing into the west coast day 7-8 has MAJOR winter storm potential the week before Christmas, can see it tapping the STJ on some of the Op runs

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has another snowstorm for my area on December 18th and 19th, 6-7 inches on the Kuchera Ratio.

[HockeyTx82]

12z GFS has another snowstorm for my area on December 18th and 19th, 6-7 inches on the Kuchera Ratio.

A broken clock is right twice a day.....

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has another snowstorm for my area on December 18th and 19th, 6-7 inches on the Kuchera Ratio.

A broken clock is right twice a day.....

What?

[Iceresistance]

Here is the image for the 12z GFS snow


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh234-282.gif

[Edwards Limestone]

Picked up some BOIL shares. Thanks for the info guys.

[HockeyTx82]

12z GFS has another snowstorm for my area on December 18th and 19th, 6-7 inches on the Kuchera Ratio.

A broken clock is right twice a day.....

What?

Just saying this far out it's pure fantasy. Might be right, might be wrong.

[wxman57]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

We know the Euro has performed poorly in the PAC so can’t trust it.

[Iceresistance]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

We know the Euro has performed poorly in the PAC so can’t trust it.

I have never trusted the Euro for winter since February 2021. The GFS is surprisingly good for that on the flip side.

[gpsnowman]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

We know the Euro has performed poorly in the PAC so can’t trust it.

If I recall in Feb 2021 the GFS, ICON, and CMC all picked up on the severe cold early on and never wavered and the Euro did not catch on until a couple days just before it all came down. Could it happen again?

[Iceresistance]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

We know the Euro has performed poorly in the PAC so can’t trust it.

If I recall in Feb 2021 the GFS, ICON, and CMC all picked up on the severe cold early on and never wavered and the Euro did not catch on until a couple days just before it all came down. Could it happen again?

All of the models wavered somewhat, but the GFS, ICON, and CMC caught it in the long range and did well.

The Euro absolutely flopped in February 2021.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

We know the Euro has performed poorly in the PAC so can’t trust it.

If I recall in Feb 2021 the GFS, ICON, and CMC all picked up on the severe cold early on and never wavered and the Euro did not catch on until a couple days just before it all came down. Could it happen again?

I believe the Euro sniffed it out first then dropped it for several days while the other models kept showing more and more severe solutions. Then the Euro came back 60 hours out

[Ntxw]

We know the Euro has performed poorly in the PAC so can’t trust it.

If I recall in Feb 2021 the GFS, ICON, and CMC all picked up on the severe cold early on and never wavered and the Euro did not catch on until a couple days just before it all came down. Could it happen again?

I believe the Euro sniffed it out first then dropped it for several days while the other models kept showing more and more severe solutions. Then the Euro came back 60 hours out

Euro had inherent issues with surface temperatures, similar to GFS issues some years back. It wasn't just limited to the Feb 2021 outbreak but that one was glaring due to the extremes. Incorporating too much climo in a higher standard deviation event is not always a good thing.

[orangeblood]

Canadian ENS appeared to handle the arctic cold in the 7-14 day range the best over past several years…here’s the latest 9-16 day temp forecast

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Canadian ENS appeared to handle the arctic cold in the 7-14 day range the best over past several years…here’s the latest 9-16 day temp forecast

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_7day/1670500800/1671883200-9IyzkF8n6Lo.png

[gpsnowman]

Canadian ENS appeared to handle the arctic cold in the 7-14 day range the best over past several years…here’s the latest 9-16 day temp forecast

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_7day/1670500800/1671883200-9IyzkF8n6Lo.png

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/EBE722ED-348A-41A2-A7DD-D364BE774271.png.55384e862d724570d8432d032c44159d.png

That is a good looking Alaskan ridge depicted. The pattern change can't come soon enough, I am tired of the Dagobah swamp weather we have been having, although it will bring some rain chances between now and Tuesday.

[TropicalTundra]

What's the timing for the next cooldown? Some models are hinting at a big cold front sometime Tuesday afternoon- Wednesday morning although it's been flip flopping.