Preliminary Snowfall Ideas for Boston, NYC, and Philadelphia

[donsutherland1]

As I'm continuing to examine prospective analogs, I typically go through an exercise where I break various factors into three major categories and use the conclusions of those categories as sort of "ensembles" to offer some early guidance.

These factors are ENSO/QBO, Regional SSTAs, and Hurricane tracks, intensity, and frequency (which remains bullish on snow even after considering Larry). In general, when two of the three categories point to a snowy winter and the PDO is positive (short-term anomaly regardless of longer-term cycle), winters see decent snowfall.

Right now, if I had to look at Boston, NYC, and Philadelphia--and confidence is still moderate at this time--I see the Boston receiving 32" or more of snow this winter, NYC 20" or more, and Philadelphia 15" or more.

For those who wonder how I arrived at these numbers, 75% of winters that met the above sample criteria saw snowfall in excess of those baseline amounts.

As a note of caution, I do not expect a repeat of last winter's prodigious snowfall, though I do not see a snow drought either.

A seasonal snowfall risk profile for Boston is as follows:

Below 25": Low Risk
25" to 34.9": Moderate Risk
35" to 44.9": High Risk
45" to 54.9": Moderate Risk
55" or Above: Low Risk

A seasonal snowfall risk profile for NYC is as follows:

Less than 20": Low Risk
20" to 24.9": Moderate Risk
25" to 34.9": High Risk
35" to 39.9": Moderate Risk
40" or Above: Low Risk

A seasonal snowfall risk profile for Philadelphia is as follows:

Less than 10": Low Risk
10" to 14.9": Moderate Risk
15" to 24.9": High Risk
25" to 29.9": Moderate Risk
30" or Above: Low Risk

Bear in mind, these are preliminary ideas and I'll have a firmer idea after the middle of the month.

I will note that KA's pick of 1979-80 is something that I greatly respect given his extraordinary track record and it has given me pause as I examine prospective analogs, especially as this one is among those that I'm looking at.

As HM noted at WWBB, the QBO Index has bottomed-out (meaning the East phase has peaked) in August. The QBO rose somewhat to -22.52 in September. In years similar to this one, one could expect another modest rise in the following month, rather than a sharp rise as sometimes occurs. Hence, October could see a QBO Index of -17.50 +/- 2.50.

Finally, it should be noted that typically, in years in which the QBO bottomed-out at less than -20, a switch occurs about 5 months after its east phase peaks. Thus, a switch to west from some time in December to some time in February (most likely January) has gained credence with this development. This is a switch that had already been assumed in my arriving at the preliminary snowfall assessments.

[Guest]

I dont know Don about that 79/80 as beeing such a great analog for this upcomming winter (For the country as a whole anyways)..................I do have respect for KA myself not many have that kind of track record.

Like weathafella pointed out we were at a solar max that winter which imo cannot be ignored.......................Just so many things imo comming together for what i think will be a snowy winter for areas east of the rockies ( Namely The Central Plains, Southern Midwest, Great Lakes,Ohio Valley and on over into the Apps (interior Mid Atlantic) and into the NE from the i95 cities and more so West with the exception of places such as Boston who i think may end up beeing a nice winner this winter..............................I as well think the Mid Atlantic Coastal areas from S.NJ south to VA (East of i95) may end up doing quite well in the snow dept compared to thier averages.............Which if anything i guess this does more relate to the 79/80 analog....................Cant toss the whole thing out but some of it can be put to use................Just have to take into other considerations i think this winter more so................Such as the things you just mentioned and of course the solar activity..

I will say as well that i cannot totally disagree with your numbers for those locations.............I say a little higher maybe..............I for one cant wait to see your mid Oct thoughts on this................BTW go grab HM, Weathafella,RNS and drag them on over here.............

Great post as always Don..

[Guest]

BTW.......... Below here is a look at the current snow pack and as well a look back at last year this time!!!



Oct 6, 2002.......Last year


Current snow cover!!!!


Currently we are slightly behind last year.................Too me though this is good because i suspect last years early build up is what led to the somwhat supressed storm track with all that snow pack allowing the colder drier air to get farther south............................Still early though to make any kind of real assement on this...............Plus last years was record breaking so its kinda doubtfull we will see the same this year.............Just another factor to consider with the up comming winter...

[JCT777]

Don - your snow forecast for Boston, NYC and Philadelphia sounds good. I think those cities will see slightly above normal snows this winter.

[donsutherland1]

King of Weather,

First, thanks for the kind words.

I'm not sure that 1979-80 is the best analog either, but given KA's selection of it as his primary analog and also the fact that it does lie within the pool of prospective analogs I'm examining--a shrinking pool at that--I am somewhat wary of it.

Currently, my preliminary thoughts are not based on its becoming the primary analog, as it does appear to me that there are enough differences to look more seriously at additional analog years.

Jerry (Weathafella) is absolutely right about the solar flux differing from '79-80 and today. Still is the absence of a solar max enough to rule it out? It helps, for sure. Fortunately, there appear to be other factors, as well, so a decent argument can be made against this analog. Still, with KA embracing it, some sense of caution is in order.

It would be great if HM, Jerry, and RNS share some of their thoughts here, as well. I've always believed that there is plenty of room for more than one winter weather forum, so I don't believe there's any conflict of interest whatsoever in participating in more than one forum.

Finally, thanks for posting the snow cover maps. I'll be curious to see how things look through mid to late October. So far, I'm not overly concerned that the snow cover is lower than last year's record expanse.

Don

[donsutherland1]

JCT777,

I am cautiously optimistic that the snowfall estimates will hold up. The recent bottoming-out of the QBO has strengthened that idea, as it offers the first evidence that the QBO is in the process of reversing.

Only 1956, 1965, and 1974 saw it begin to rise only to fall again. In these three cases, the initial increase was far smaller than that which had taken place in September:

Initial attempt at reversal:

1956: +0.50
1965: +0.39
1974: +0.40
2003: +2.13

Consequently, I have a high degree of confidence that the change in September marks the beginning of a transition to a westerly QBO.

[Colin]

I think those amounts may be a bit high...I think those cities will see slightly below normal snowfall, maybe normal if their lucky...so not the best winter IMO.

[Guest]

I think those amounts may be a bit high...I think those cities will see slightly below normal snowfall, maybe normal if their lucky...so not the best winter IMO.

Any good explaination for why you say that Colin??? You seeing something were not??? Let us know......

[JCT777]

JCT777,

I am cautiously optimistic that the snowfall estimates will hold up. The recent bottoming-out of the QBO has strengthened that idea, as it offers the first evidence that the QBO is in the process of reversing.

Only 1956, 1965, and 1974 saw it begin to rise only to fall again. In these three cases, the initial increase was far smaller than that which had taken place in September:

Initial attempt at reversal:

1956: +0.50
1965: +0.39
1974: +0.40
2003: +2.13

Consequently, I have a high degree of confidence that the change in September marks the beginning of a transition to a westerly QBO.

Don - thanks for the reply. Not looking bad at all for this upcoming winter. Certainly it won't be anywhere near as warm/snowless as 2001-02. Nor will it likely be as cold and snowy as last winter. But still should be pretty good for us snowlovers.

[ColdFront77]

QBO values and snowfall estimate for this upcoming winter aren't the same values.

[Guest]

QBO values and snowfall estimate for this upcoming winter aren't the same vaues.

Your point is Tom?????? Not sure at what your getting at?

[ColdFront77]

I am responding to Colin's post.....

I think those amounts may be a bit high...I think those cities will see slightly below normal snowfall, maybe normal if their lucky...so not the best winter IMO.

[donsutherland1]

John,

I think for many of us, it will be a decent winter (unless we are anticipating a repeat of last winter and then we will likely be quite disappointed).

As is the case with you, I don't expect that 2003-04 will be a repeat of either 2001-02 or 2002-03.

[Colin]

I think those amounts may be a bit high...I think those cities will see slightly below normal snowfall, maybe normal if their lucky...so not the best winter IMO.

Any good explaination for why you say that Colin??? You seeing something were not??? Let us know......

Because I'm going with KA....sorry if that offends you......

[Guest]

Dont press your luck Colin.

I didnt say it offended me!

[vbhoutex]

I think those amounts may be a bit high...I think those cities will see slightly below normal snowfall, maybe normal if their lucky...so not the best winter IMO.

Any good explaination for why you say that Colin??? You seeing something were not??? Let us know......

Because I'm going with KA....sorry if that offends you......

So Colin, you have no thoughts of your own on why you think what you said? Why do you think that KOW would be offended by you "going" with someone else? KOW is one of the biggest advocates of open discussion on the site.

[Colin]

Jeez! :o It's just my thoughts...I'm an amateur so I don't have much thoughts as of yet. I'm just saying I'm going with KA! SORRY!

[LMolineux]

I Would love a 55+ inch snow fall winter. But a 30-35 inch winter looks on tap.

This si For Philly metro. But we shall see i hope to nail out 50 inches to be very happy.

[IndianaWx]

This time its Midwest, Great Plains, and West turn to get substantial snows ( or atleast I hope ). Last year was above average for me, but the problem with above average is that it came with petty systems that were numerous. The thing I LOVED about last year was the snow cover. There was a good amount of the winter that had snow cover. Also a snowstorm on Christmas eve was a great Christmas present. Several power outtages in the night and 6 inches of snow. It was wonderful.

What should the NE experience? I won't go as far as explaining why I think this, but inland NE could have some above average snows while the Coastal areas get an icy situation this year. Although, since I have no knowledge in NE climate and don't experience it, I will only say this as a guess. I am not the greatest at weather, nor am I the worst. Making seasonal predictions is a little tough for me to handle though So any thoughts I do give will mst likely not be supported by anything. lol

[Stephanie]

The thing is for Philadelphia, we could get just one snowstorm that will give us that 15 inch snowfall. Actually, we tend to go from one extreme to another with our snow, from a few inches to being crushed. Average is fine for me. I love the change of the seasons, but what I can't stand is a snowless winter!

What is QBO? I don't think I've seen that one before.

Keep bringing us your forecasts guys!