Winter Outlooks so far

[WEATHER53]

Most seem to be on the cold and/or snowy side for mid atlantic, some at WWBB posting with great enthusiasm about at 93-94 repeat. My outlook will be out 10/11 but the foundation for that is from my mentor and he sees a winter for DC metro slightly above normal in temperature and below normal in snowfall and the analog trends that we use and that I see so far are supportive of this.

[GAStorm]

Hey WEATHER53,

I have read discussions on WWBB about the analogs possibly not holding up for the above normal temp forecast. This would be due to the solar influence which will not play a factor like it did in analog years. Does your mentor look at this when coming up with his forecast? Just curios since I don't see how that temp forecast will hold true.

[will]

Kind of surprised at KA's forecast...seems to be quite a few glaring holes in it that I'm surprised he didn't see.
However, based on his record, I'll let those fears take a back seat and just assume he knows something the rest of us don't.
I'm still doubtful tho...I just can't for the life of me figure out how the hell he came up with 79-80 and 58-59. They're just so skewed that it sounds like he's joking around or something...but he isn't. Right?

[Guest]

The thing is GAstorm is that The person who i believe Weather53 (Correct me if im wrong 53) is talking about (KA) has this outlook for primarly the MidAtlantic (DC AREA more so).................Its a pretty good outlook with alot brought into it but a few exceptions may have been not included which i hope 53 can verify.

Such as the Solar max we had which i do believe didnt happen in the analog which i think KA used which happens to be 79/80................

Right now as we travers through OCT and other influnces start to show themselves such as the QBO, Solar activity, Snowcover to our north, ETC, I think we will have more answers for our winter and imo already do have some of them such as the Solar activity, QBO,PNA which like 53 said is making alot of the winter outlooks trend towards colder and snowier......(Perhaps not like last year along the i95 corridor) but still a bit more snowfall then is normally seen in these locations and the bigger amounts to the west..................

I for one would love a 93/94 repeat in this area because that winter brought this area up over 70 inches of snow and as well brought the coldest Temp ever recorded for my town as well as the state which happens to be -31!................I am taking a closer look at that now myself............

I will say that there will be alot of very un happy people in some areas if we do have a repeat of that winter because some saw ICE like they have never seen before that winter which i was one of them who at the time lived at the Delaware coast!!!

I very much do look forward to seeing your Winter outlook Weather53! BTW 53 have you read Dons discussions below? Great stuff as well......

[paradoxsixnine]

Most seem to be on the cold and/or snowy side for mid atlantic, some at WWBB posting with great enthusiasm about at 93-94 repeat. My outlook will be out 10/11 but the foundation for that is from my mentor and he sees a winter for DC metro slightly above normal in temperature and below normal in snowfall and the analog trends that we use and that I see so far are supportive of this.

sorry for my being behind, but what is WWBB the abbreviation for??

[WEATHER53]

Kind of surprised at KA's forecast...seems to be quite a few glaring holes in it that I'm surprised he didn't see.
However, based on his record, I'll let those fears take a back seat and just assume he knows something the rest of us don't.
I'm still doubtful tho...I just can't for the life of me figure out how the hell he came up with 79-80 and 58-59. They're just so skewed that it sounds like he's joking around or something...but he isn't. Right?

"how the hell he came up with 79-80"-Do you keep track of any apparent weather. 79 had a huge snowstorm, the summer was cool and wet-latest 90 temp ever, David in late September, and a very cool early October. This is how you do it if you want to get it right and the winter that followed in 79-80 is what whe have predicted.

[will]

Kind of surprised at KA's forecast...seems to be quite a few glaring holes in it that I'm surprised he didn't see.
However, based on his record, I'll let those fears take a back seat and just assume he knows something the rest of us don't.
I'm still doubtful tho...I just can't for the life of me figure out how the hell he came up with 79-80 and 58-59. They're just so skewed that it sounds like he's joking around or something...but he isn't. Right?

"how the hell he came up with 79-80"-Do you keep track of any apparent weather. 79 had a huge snowstorm, the summer was cool and wet-latest 90 temp ever, David in late September, and a very cool early October. This is how you do it if you want to get it right and the winter that followed in 79-80 is what whe have predicted.

There's more to it than tho. As others have pointed out...you only have to go so far as to compare Solar activity which has lately been shown to have a far greater effect on the weather than originally believed. Thing is, 78-79 was near a maximum whereas we're heading for a minimum...but actually, that's only the tip of the iceberg so far as differences go.

[Guest]

Kind of surprised at KA's forecast...seems to be quite a few glaring holes in it that I'm surprised he didn't see.
However, based on his record, I'll let those fears take a back seat and just assume he knows something the rest of us don't.
I'm still doubtful tho...I just can't for the life of me figure out how the hell he came up with 79-80 and 58-59. They're just so skewed that it sounds like he's joking around or something...but he isn't. Right?

"how the hell he came up with 79-80"-Do you keep track of any apparent weather. 79 had a huge snowstorm, the summer was cool and wet-latest 90 temp ever, David in late September, and a very cool early October. This is how you do it if you want to get it right and the winter that followed in 79-80 is what whe have predicted.

Good point 53................I for one do remember that year in the DC area which of course did have the original presidents days snowstorm and as well pretty much feature a cool summer overall and who can forget that very early record breaking snow event in Oct of 79....................You do make some very good valid points with those statements................Like anyone else it seems that the solar activity and the other couple of things mentioned is what has people questioning the outlook..................Remember people KA has a very very good track record and i for one wouldnt completly dissmiss it just yet.................Give it time and see how things playout in the next couple of weeks..........

[WEATHER53]

Keep sticking with that solar stuff and about a half dozen other PDO, NAO, etc variable which do not lend to an accurate outcome. Analog data and el nino/la nina, and for this winter it will be la nada, equals the amazing success of KA.
The trump is The Weather, if the majority of this year has real weather a lot like 79 then the trump is The Weather, the fact that the sunsports or flares or water temps off Alaska are difference is not The Trump, the Weather is The Trump and what will likely follow is what followed the last time the resultant weather to this point was so similiar.

[GAStorm]

The thing is GAstorm is that The person who i believe Weather53 (Correct me if im wrong 53) is talking about (KA) has this outlook for primarly the MidAtlantic (DC AREA more so).................Its a pretty good outlook with alot brought into it but a few exceptions may have been not included which i hope 53 can verify.

Such as the Solar max we had which i do believe didnt happen in the analog which i think KA used which happens to be 79/80................

Right now as we travers through OCT and other influnces start to show themselves such as the QBO, Solar activity, Snowcover to our north, ETC, I think we will have more answers for our winter and imo already do have some of them such as the Solar activity, QBO,PNA which like 53 said is making alot of the winter outlooks trend towards colder and snowier......(Perhaps not like last year along the i95 corridor) but still a bit more snowfall then is normally seen in these locations and the bigger amounts to the west..................

I for one would love a 93/94 repeat in this area because that winter brought this area up over 70 inches of snow and as well brought the coldest Temp ever recorded for my town as well as the state which happens to be -31!................I am taking a closer look at that now myself............

I will say that there will be alot of very un happy people in some areas if we do have a repeat of that winter because some saw ICE like they have never seen before that winter which i was one of them who at the time lived at the Delaware coast!!!

I very much do look forward to seeing your Winter outlook Weather53! BTW 53 have you read Dons discussions below? Great stuff as well......

Thanks for pointing this out KOW! I definitely respect KA's forecast, and I think that the analogs can definitely be helpful when making a prediction. It will be real interesting to see how things develop later in the month!

[GAStorm]

Keep sticking with that solar stuff and about a half dozen other PDO, NAO, etc variable which do not lend to an accurate outcome. Analog data and el nino/la nina, and for this winter it will be la nada, equla the amazing success of KA.

In the winter of '02, solar influence was a big reason there was no long duration of cold air in the US. At least that is what I read from a Dr. Dewpoint article. I only brought that up since the temp forecast was way off that year!

[ColdFront77]

sorry for my being behind, but what is WWBB the abbreviation for??

"WWBB" is the "Wright-Weather Bulletin Board."

[donsutherland1]

King of Weather,

Thanks for the kind words. I just ran through the my preliminary numbers for D.C.--15"-25" most likely, 75% chance of greater than 12". In addition, one-third of my sample years had less than 15". We'll see what happens when I narrow the the list down in the end.

However, given that I'm not exactly far above KA for D.C. at this time, I feel more comfortable with my overall ideas at this time even if I take a different approach to arrive there.

Also, Weather53's point about KA's considering important meteorological developments e.g., Hurricane David in September 1979 (vs. Isabel this year), cold periods in early October for both years, etc., is a good insight.

[HuffWx]

Must say...Can't argue with overall trends and KA has been MOB ..

Huff

[WEATHER53]

This is a made up example but furthers my point that what rules is occurent weather and not surrounding circumstances. If, hypothetical, in 1935 we had the warmest April ever, the driest August ever, and the coolest October ever and that winter was cold and snowy and in 1985 we had an April within 0.2 degrees of the '35 warmth record, an August within 0.05" of the '35 dry August record, and an October even cooler than the '35 October and that winter was also cold and snowy, and then in 2003 we had the same measurements once again it would then be absurd to point out differences in solar activity and water temps and the variety of other "sub-considerations" that get thrown around, you can take it to the bank with 80%+ accuracy, probbaly 100%, that the winter of 2003-2004 would be cold and snowy. The weather begats the weather.

[Guest]

Im not toally disagreeing with you 53..............I just say there is stil a couple of things to consider because imo it wouldnt take much of anything to Bust all of our outlooks in such a type set up we have going into this winter...............ENSO for one may be making a little presence known come the winter especially mid and late winter........And then all the other factors to consider as well..........

Like i said i have great respect for KA for the obvious and that is he has a great track record such as you keep pointing out..........(not many others can say that)................I have yet to give up on what he has said (Especially in your region) i just have my doubts like alot of others do especially imo for areas outside your own in relation to that analog year.

I hope this helps some.

I will add some more info to this tomorrow and how that analog year relates to areas outside of the MidAtlantic.....

[JCT777]

53 - your reasonings and KA's reasonings are valid. You very well could end up being correct. Personally, I think it will be a bit colder and snowier than you are implying - but not anywhere near as cold or snowy than this past winter. But also a far cry from the very mild and snow-lacking winter of 2001-02.

[paradoxsixnine]

sorry for my being behind, but what is WWBB the abbreviation for??

"WWBB" is the "Wright-Weather Bulletin Board."

'preciate it!