All the details hear for what WINTER gonna be like of 03/04.

[WxFreak15]

From my post from old farmer's almanac..



First

Now most of us know this will be neutral winter, but some think we are headed for a el nino winter like last winter. That is not the case this winter. It is officially gonna be a neutral winter. Here is some proof.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

11 out of the 11 computer models SST's suggest neutral conditions(winter) til at least may of next year then a possible el nino development (weak to moderate).


Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions continue in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are showing near normal values with only weak positive (warm) anomalies being recorded in the western and central tropical Pacific and weak negative (cool) anomalies in the far eastern Pacific. The other major indicators (subsurface temperature, SOI, cloud and wind) have generally been close to average over the past month. All computer predictions indicate that the current neutral conditions in the Pacific will continue throughout the Southern Hemisphere summer. The possibility of an El Niño or La Niña event remains low with nearly all models indicating neutral conditions to continue until at least May 2004. The computer models predicting eastern Pacific conditions continue to favour neutral conditions with all 11 of the available models surveyed suggesting this in five months' time.

Lastly


This is some good news for snowlovers in the midwest and great lakes, because if we were to have el nino like last winter it would most likely be a dry and near normal temperature winter for winter of 2003 and 2004. Since this is a neutral winter. It has indicated to me that the midwest and great lakes and plains(this is a fact) usually get there snowiest times is in neutral winters with its biggest snows. Plenty of cold also(though not always cold) If Neutral winter transits to el nino early spring which may indicate a more stormy and cold winter for eastern U.S. according to Dr. Dewpoint. Overall this winter looks to be really active across great lakes midwest and exp in Northeast. Northeast will most likely walk out with a few good snowstorms and a noreaster with some spells of cold and warmth(though less snow than last year, but still a good winter) Midwest and great lakes and plains will get really good snows this winter as well with several medium to big snowstorms I believe considering a neutral winter usually does that lookin at past records. cold and warm spells also. When the NAO is strongly negative (blocking patterns occur in the Atlantic), we will be most vulnerable for extreme winter weather. We will have times of strong blocking result in a negative NAO which indicates its best time for snowstorms as storm dip for midwest great lakes and northeast. Positive NAO usually indicates drier and a little warmer. We will have swings of both. Predominately speaking im not sure if it will be predominated by positive or negative NAO, but will have both. PNA is important, and if u all know what it is it will most likely be positive through most of winter if anything.


Most active tracks this winter will be:

The ones entering in the Pacific Northwest and redeveloping in eastern Colorado or the Texas Panhandle. The storms will track towards to Great Lakes or Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The systems may redevelop off the East Coast south of New England. The best chance for snow with these systems will be over the Central and Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the Northeast. If the North Atlantic Oscillation is in a blocking phase, the storm track could shift south and more of the central and eastern big cities could get in on the fun.


Above average snowfall for areas this winter neutral winter (according to recent records) are Chicago, Detroit, Des Moine, Omaha, Richmond Virginia, Albany, Rockford, Gary, Milwauckee, Saint Louis, North Platte, Minneoapolis, Cleveland, Buffalo(lot of lake effect as well) Caribue, Pittsburg etc... even Boston, New York, Phily, Washington D.C.


Temperatures this winter: It all depends on NAO. So there will be times of extreme cold and times of some warmth this winter.


Southeast will be cool and wet with warm conditons in florida this winter. Southeast may get a good snowstorm or two i believe as if negative NAO happens and take some of these storms far south with lots of cold air in place.


But be ready for a long winter if it all pans out for u folks in northeast, midwest, plains and great lakes area!!!!!!!!!

[JetMaxx]

A consistent storm track from Colorado/ Texas-Oklahoma panhandle toward the Great Lakes would also likely mean above normal severe t-storm and tornado activity across much of the deep south (east Texas to Georgia/ Carolinas)....especially from November to mid-December and again in February.

[markh]

A consistent storm track from Colorado/ Texas-Oklahoma panhandle toward the Great Lakes would also likely mean above normal severe t-storm and tornado activity across much of the deep south (east Texas to Georgia/ Carolinas)....especially from November to mid-December and again in February.

Yes this is something chasing folks over in the UK will be keen to monitor. We are aware of the 'fall' chase season around Nov time and if conditions are favourable a few of us will be catching last minute flights.

Historically, November is the worst month for severe tornadoes http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/mont ... stats.html & from what I can recall the past few years have seen an unusual dip in the jet stream combined with active fronts. A potentially explosive setup. Not that we would wish this upon anyone.

Certainly needs monitoring.

Mark