First Eastern System Snow Threat?? OH,PA,WVA,NY,VT,NH?????

[Guest]

Well well well.....................It seems that we have some models hinting at what (Possibly) may be the first snow of the season in the lower Great Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley over into the NE/Central Apps.......................What is very suprising to me is to see it in my own forecast for Friday night because the NWS in Cleveland,OH is usually very snow stingy so to say......................So far as of right now from what im seeing on the models is a low pressure forming in the OH/TN valleys and scooting ene across KY and into WVA/VA and off the Delmarva coast very slowly i may add................Question is does it hook farther to the north??? Or does it develop quicker???? Or does it do nothing untill it reaches the coast????
IMO right now its a tough call and i more or less like the middle road which is what i stated above and more or less agrees (For a change) with the nws and the gfs....................One of the few times i hope i am wrong!!!!!LOL....................Either way its a possibility that this storm could develop quicker and take a slight jog more towards the N which of course would give a few areas i mentioned in the header of this thread a first shot at a decent system snowfall for the season!!!!!!!

Any other thoughts or opinions on this??????

BTW has anyone seen the model runs for the Middle/Late next week??? A big wowzer (IF) that happens which beeing so far out i have lots of doubts about!!!!!!!!!

[mathias1979]

I don't know...seems pretty borderline. I think the MRF solution would give the best chance of a few flakes on the tale end of the system. If the GFS solution were to work out, I don't know if enough cold air would get pulled down quick enough. In my opinion, definitely doesn't look like anything widespread...maybe a couple flakes for a few lucky people. Is there anything I'm not picking up on?

-Matt

[roarusdogus]

I don't think snow will be much of a concern. Thickness should definitely be high enough to keep liquid the primary precip type. 850 temps should be down at least colder than -6C or -7C for a snow event this time of year. 850 temps may get below freezing but the chances of anything other than liquid hitting the ground is slim IMO.

[Stormsfury]

ETA precip type progs
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etausptype.html

GFS precip type progs
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... typ&loop=1

[Guest]

ETA precip type progs
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etausptype.html

GFS precip type progs
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?
var=gfs_sfc_ptyp&loop=1

LOL........Thanks SF..........Of course one says yea and the other says nadda of anything...................Like Roar and Mathias said we will see................Have my doubts but then again it wouldnt suprise me as well..................Either way just seing that i figured it should be mentioned........................

[IndianaWx]

GFS keeps bringing in Cold time after time. Most interesting one right now is Day 8-11. We'll see but I highly doubt that this will occur.

[Colin]

I doubt I'll get any snow here...but maybe the higher elevations of PA may get their first snow...hope I at least get some snow mixed in! Thanks for the analysis like always KOW.

[IndianaWx]

I doubt I'll get any snow here...but maybe the higher elevations of PA may get their first snow...hope I at least get some snow mixed in! Thanks for the analysis like always KOW.

Any snow is good for me! Too bad the ground is way too warm for anything to stick. Maybe in the second week of November we can start talking about snow that STICKS.

[ohiostorm]

Doubt we will get much from it. Just some early flakes to remind us that winter is right around the corner!

[Guest]

Doubt we will get much from it. Just some early flakes to remind us that winter is right around the corner!

Well after looking at the euro im not ruling anything out right now..............Allthough like you said Ohio it will probably bring us flakes but the chances are looking better for more then just flakes right now..............Whats really intresting is the following system for next week.............Seems to be picking up more model support and this baby right now looks to be a bomb!!!!!!! Will remind everyone that like i said its next week so anything can change by then!!!!! Its just getting more model support right now......................

[southerngale]

Well, I hope ya'll get your snow. And when ya get a little, send some waaaaay down south please. I'll be waiting!!

[JCT777]

As long as the snow cover builds in Canada, things will be good. I am hoping to see my first snow flakes of the season next month.

[roarusdogus]

GFS keeps bringing in Cold time after time. Most interesting one right now is Day 8-11. We'll see but I highly doubt that this will occur.

This one may not be so false. The European is right there with the GFS in bringing the entire arctic down next week into the center or the country. The way the Euro looks we might get some penguins too!
With all that blocking out there, a very deep trough wouldn't be surprising at all. So, it's not only the GFS that has the cold, the Euro has it just as much. The Canadian Ensembles are right there too but a little further east. Although timing and exact placement issues aren't in agreement in the model world, the arctic air headed into the U.S. seems to be in agreement overall to varying degrees. The day 7 Euro makes me shiver just looking at it. It's got a flow straight from the arctic to Texas. This would be a true Blue Norther for sure.

[Stephanie]

Cool maps SF!!

It wouldn't be the first time we've had snow in October down my way, though the GFS is just saying rain.

[tomboudreau]

I've already seen my first flakes of this winter season (Oct 2nd or 3rd), and I just want to say, I was less to impressed. Last winter was long and cold enough. I cant remember how many times I was outside shoveling snow at 5AM so I could get out of the driveway to get to work. I know I lost county at 12 times.

[Stormsfury]

GFS keeps bringing in Cold time after time. Most interesting one right now is Day 8-11. We'll see but I highly doubt that this will occur.

This one may not be so false. The European is right there with the GFS in bringing the entire arctic down next week into the center or the country. The way the Euro looks we might get some penguins too!
With all that blocking out there, a very deep trough wouldn't be surprising at all. So, it's not only the GFS that has the cold, the Euro has it just as much. The Canadian Ensembles are right there too but a little further east. Although timing and exact placement issues aren't in agreement in the model world, the arctic air headed into the U.S. seems to be in agreement overall to varying degrees. The day 7 Euro makes me shiver just looking at it. It's got a flow straight from the arctic to Texas. This would be a true Blue Norther for sure.

Take into consideration as well, the EURO generally has a subtle warm bias as well, and I won't even begin to say how bad the warm bias is on the Canadian. But anyways, a very interesting setup nonetheless with quite a bit of support.

SF

[therock1811]

Well, I just logged on to ILN NWS... says nothing yet for Wed./Thursday...but I got this from NCEP's Climate Prediction Center:

The jet stream configuration of a trough over the eastern states and associated cold air at the surface are favorable for the development of nor'easters along the Atlantic coast. Some extended model runs do forecast such development, but whether such a storm will occur and details of its track and intensity if it does develop are uncertain at this time range.

Could this be a sign of what may come for Halloween? Can you say Halloween storm Part 2 (first part was in 1993)?

[Guest]

Well, I just logged on to ILN NWS... says nothing yet for Wed./Thursday...but I got this from NCEP's Climate Prediction Center:

The jet stream configuration of a trough over the eastern states and associated cold air at the surface are favorable for the development of nor'easters along the Atlantic coast. Some extended model runs do forecast such development, but whether such a storm will occur and details of its track and intensity if it does develop are uncertain at this time range.

Could this be a sign of what may come for Halloween? Can you say Halloween storm Part 2 (first part was in 1993)?

Hey rock you wanna see Halloween 1993 part2????
Feast yours eyes on this!!!!!!! Kinda scarey looking isnt it????
Good thing (For you)(Sucks for me) this is 14 Days out which means the chances are very slim for it to happen but none the less i figured sence you mentioned it and i happend to see this i figured i would share it with you !

[therock1811]

Scary is right...thanks buddy! I don't know this'll verify yet but we'll see...