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AFDFLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST SUN NOV 02 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN
OF COOL AND BREEZY DAYS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY...AND
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF PCPN FORMED ACROSS THE CWFA ON SATURDAY AND
POST-ANALYSIS INDICATES THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF CSI
AS A JET STREAK WITH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE PCPN BANDS. CURRENT UA PLOTS AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST
THAT THE JET WILL PUSH OVERHEAD AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY SO THAT CSI IS UNLIKELY. THUS...WILL FOCUS ON THE MODERATE
OROGRAPHICS AND DIVQ DYNAMICS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MESO ETA SNDGS INDICATE NEAR
SATURATION UP THROUGH ABOUT -20C OVERNIGHT SO THERE WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE MICROPHYSICS. DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHICS...AND MICROPHYSICS
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 7500 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB TODAY..FALLING TO 6000 FEET BY MONDAY. ALONG THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM...LEVELS OF 8500 FEET TODAY WILL FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET
BY MONDAY MORNING. AND IN THE WHITE MTNS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 7500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
Dennis
It's SNOWIN'!!!! Not hard BUT........it's the first flakes of the season. Woke up around 0430, heard sleet hitting the windows, got up to look and VIOLA! Could THIS be the YEAR of normal snowfall???
