Just for Kicks...12zGFS shows a Thanksgiving Noreaster

[Anonymous]

nice to look at..although it probably wont verifiy although Weather53 hinted of a late NOV coasal storm. Maybe this is it....


BTW..if i posted this on the WWBB i would get verbally abused.. lol

[Stormsfury]

The ensemble means MAY just support some form of a Thanksgiving storm ... although, I wouldn't exactly pay attention to the individual details, the overall idea is there ...

[therock1811]

I heard my math teacher say this could happen...well King???

[Anonymous]

The ensemble means MAY just support some form of a Thanksgiving storm ... although, I wouldn't exactly pay attention to the individual details, the overall idea is there ...

yea most of the ensembles show a deep trough(probably transient though) in the east end of the month..thats all you can ask for..it the potential.....last time DC had a thanksgiving snowstorm was 1989

Last years first major snowfall was Dec 5 and a big ice storm in Carolina..so not impossible

[Stormsfury]

The ensemble means MAY just support some form of a Thanksgiving storm ... although, I wouldn't exactly pay attention to the individual details, the overall idea is there ...

yea most of the ensembles show a deep trough(probably transient though) in the east end of the month..thats all you can ask for..it the potential.....last time DC had a thanksgiving snowstorm was 1989

Last years first major snowfall was Dec 5 and a big ice storm in Carolina..so not impossible

1989 .. ahh, good year for Coastal SC a month later with the Coastal Christmas Snowstorm ... and the Dec 5th, 1989 icestorm was a near miss here ... the frz line was about 10 miles NW of me, only briefly touching 32º with drizzle ... not enough to write home about ...

Incidentally, the GFS 500mb ensemble mean at 312hr ...


and at 336 hrs ...

[Anonymous]

i remember that year(1989)

very cold late NOV and Dec---it was the winter after Hugo...

We drove down to Florida for the christmas holidays...

snow started falling in Savannah GA..become ice near the FLA/Georgia Border...

Massive ice storm in Jax

flurries/sleet at Daytona Beach....

2 Feet at Myrtle beach..i got so lucky to experience one of the freakest events in the history of the SouthEast....

i wouldnt be suprised to see a supressed event this winter..

but DC had snowcover from Thanksgiving thru New Years in 1989...
Ensembles look good

[Stormsfury]

i remember that year(1989)

very cold late NOV and Dec---it was the winter after Hugo...

We drove down to Florida for the christmas holidays...

snow started falling in Savannah GA..become ice near the FLA/Georgia Border...

Massive ice storm in Jax

flurries/sleet at Daytona Beach....

2 Feet at Myrtle beach..i got so lucky to experience one of the freakest events in the history of the SouthEast....

i wouldnt be suprised to see a supressed event this winter..

but DC had snowcover from Thanksgiving thru New Years in 1989...
Ensembles look good

That was a wild time ... I remember after Hugo after all the hell we went through here in South Carolina and Charleston, all I remember was asking (literally praying for a White Christmas), or basically saying we deserved it ... something like that ...

These were some of the reports from the storm plus a small loop of the 500mb pattern

"December 22nd, 1989 - The Christmas snowstorm begins for Coastal areas from Northeastern Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia, giving many areas their first "White Christmas" on record. At the end of the storm on the 24th - Jacksonville, Fl recorded 3" of snow, while Charleston, SC recorded 6.9" (23rd) 8.0" total. Myrtle Beach had 14" of snow. Record snows at Wilmington, NC - 15", and at Cape Hatteras - 13.3" (more impressive because 8" fell, then changed to rain for a period and warmed to 36, then the low went by dropping the temps down again, and back to snow.) Other snowfall totals: Live Oak, FL reported 3", Loris, SC received 14.5", and 19.5" at Longwood, NC. Some SC/NC drifts were as high as 8 feet."

[JCT777]

It is very pretty to look at, but I won't get my hopes up. Of course, I have been hearing from several sources that a Thanksgiving (or shortly thereafter) storm is possible in the east. It would probably be rain for me, but we have seen snowstorms in November (such as in 1989, which brought 4 inches of snow on the eve of Thanksgiving).

I would rather see a potential for a storm vs. no potential at all.

[Anonymous]

awesome info..thanks for that link...I thought Myrtle got 2 feet but i guess i was wrong...Savannah got 4 inches..their highest total in a 100 years!!!...1989 was a wild year...


btw 1989..winter was over in Late DEC...it was very warm the rest of the winter..i think a week later it was in the 60's and 70's in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic...

[Stormsfury]

awesome info..thanks for that link...I thought Myrtle got 2 feet but i guess i was wrong...Savannah got 4 inches..their highest total in a 100 years!!!...1989 was a wild year...


btw 1989..winter was over in Late DEC...it was very warm the rest of the winter..i think a week later it was in the 60's and 70's in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic...

Yep ... 1990 ended up being one of the warmest years of record ...

Let me see If I can put together some maps right quick ...

[Anonymous]

1989

at DCA

Dec--ridiculous 12 degrees below normal
Jan-5 above normal
Feb-8 above normal
March 3 above normal

if you sneezed you pretty much missed winter...


IAD had 16 inches of snow thru Dec 31
but had 10 inches combined in March and April to give them an above average year on paper..

[Stormsfury]

December 1989 was COLD with widespread temperature anomalies ranging from 6º to as much as 18º below normal for the entire month ...



January 1990 was a total reversal of that with the temperatures becoming widespread warm ... February and March 1990 weren't any different ... for a winter weather lover, 1990 was about as bad as the 2001-2002 ... common theme between those two winters ... SOLAR MAXIMA ... (though oddly enough this didn't have an effect on Nov-Dec 1989 ... need to look at some reanalysis maps)

[JCT777]

Ji - agreed that 1989 winter was over way too soon. November and December were cold, with December being brutally cold. But December was very dry in my area - with only about 3 inches of total snow and less than 1 inch of total rainfall equivalent. January through March of 1990 were extremely warm. I remember a stretch in mid-March of five days in a row at or above 80 degrees. And no snow at all from early January through mid-March. But I am sure we won't come close to repeating that in this upcoming winter.

[Guest]

Shame on you Ji posting this ....J/K...........It is kinda intresting seing how i mentioned this yesterday in wx53s thread http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=18531......As others have stated alot of things (-NAO, +PNA ETC) are starting to point to a storm during that week of Thanksgiving and now even the *crappy* GFS is mentioning it (I hope it doesnt put the jinx on it)...........(BTW for those that dont know the GFS is "usually" never to be trusted this far out).

Anyways i certainly remember 89/90 and getting screwed big time with that Thanksgiving storm of 89 seing how Ocean City, MD (Where i was at at the time) got 5 inches of snow then changed to mostly rain with a little snow mixed in and yet places as close as Berlin, MD. (7 Miles inland) got over a foot and the same could be said for Salisbury, MD...........And as well i do certainly remember the SE getting that big very unusual Snowstorm!

[therock1811]

I remember Dec. 20, 1989, -20° for the low and struggled to hit single digits above 0 that day...

[Anonymous]

1989-90 was a neutral ENSO year ..it followed 1988-89 which was a STRONG La Nina..


that would be an interesting study too...neutral year following a Strong La Nina...

1976-1977 was another one but that had a brutal cold january

[Stormsfury]

1989-90 was a neutral ENSO year ..it followed 1988-89 which was a STRONG La Nina..


that would be an interesting study too...neutral year following a Strong La Nina...

1976-1977 was another one but that had a brutal cold january

1976-1977 had a weak warm episode that was preceded by a strong Niña.

[RNS]

interestig that you bring up 1976/77. it was a weak EN / E QBO winter which decreased slowly thru the winter. since there was an ENSO reversal between 1975/76 and 1976/77...that aspect doesnt really matter. the correlation only works (or works most efficiently) for ENSO neutral winters following a La Nina or El Nino and the relationship between the QBO phases.

ENSO neutral - east winters following a la Nina are usually awesome winters, same as ENSO neutral west winters following an El Nino. 1977/78 was a weak EN / trans QBo winter following an El Nino east winter.

winter outlook will be released at some point next week...as im running way behind schedule

[RNS]

BTW Ji - I noticed that storm the GFS has as well and i must say that it has peaked my interest. by that...i mean the GFS may actually be on to something for once.

[therock1811]

I d/k about that... I hope it is, but IMHO, it is just going to flip in a couple days...