Here it comes...

[Hoosierwxdude]

**I mainly used the GFS as the ETA has been abominable as of late and seems to play catch up at the last minute, though I am concerned since the ETA is weaker/further south. Of note though is that HPC sees no major initialization errors at 00Z.**

Well, it goes without saying that this looks to be a very impressive system. Snow is starting to break out in the Upper Plains currently, but it’s only the beginning. Potent vortmax at H5 progged to eject out from the OK/TX panhandle area and move northeast into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday evening. Strengthening upper level jet and H5 jetstreak rounding the base of trough will help to deepen the storm system as it moves northeast. Impressive baroclinic zone in place with large temperature swing over short distance will also aid in strengthening. Expect snow to really pick up in intensity by Saturday night and Sunday across the Plains/Upper Miss Valley as the main dynamics start to advance from the west and the system really begins to crank. Snowfall may be heavy at times where any type of mesoscale banding develops, and CSI and negative EPV is also present also across some of the area – don’t know much about CSI/EPV and that info is per the AFD’s I’ve read. Thermal and moisture profile also looks to support periods of heavy snow. 700mb layer is basically saturated over a large area which means that where the temperature range is most favorable there will be maximized snow crystal growth.

Developing LLJ of around 40-60 KTS at H85 will also help to kick off a round of showers and storms with the cold front...especially on Sunday. There is a threat of some severe wx despite limited low-level instability, mainly in the form of damaging winds as potential squall line will be racing eastward. I do not believe that this will “rob” the moisture further north in the cold sector as the convection looks to be low-topped with not a lot of low-level instability in place. Therefore the Gulf connection should be alive and well into the cold sector and have no trouble transporting moisture over the thunderstorm tops to the south. System eventually looks to close off and slow down somewhat so the area that stays all snow AND in the developing comma head longest will see the highest amounts. It’s a little hard to pin down exactly where that will be, but the best guess right now looks to be in eastern MN and far northwestern WI. Somebody in or near the area of St. Cloud-Duluth-Hayward-Hinckley has the best shot at over a foot imo, and possibly quite a bit higher if these same areas also get into the heavier banding features earlier in the storm. Immediately southeast of this area, snow may change to ZR/IP as warmer air aloft gets wrapped in for a time. There will probably be a fairly sharp cutoff in snow amounts oriented NW-SE as high pressure to the north and well-defined unforgiving comma head combine to screw someone. That area looks to be from far northwest MN and northern ND and north of there. That should roughly be the cutoff line of accumulating snow.

Conditions will start to go downhill in a hurry especially Saturday evening and Sunday with increasing winds in combination with increasing snowfall rates. Blizzard conditions are possible. Even in the areas that do not see a lot of snow, travel will be difficult with the strong gusty winds. Snow ends SW to NE Monday morning or so, just in time to return to work or school if it’s not cancelled. Anyone in that part of the country should get the shovels ready!

There will be some lake effect snow in favored downwind areas, but it does not look like a good setup at all for anything significant. Conditions are hostile toward anything major happening. That is not reflected in the map.

P.S. I think this is about the time when I realize that I may have spent too much time on a winter storm that’s going to give me jack. But I’m sick and really have nothing better to do.

http://www.geocities.com/wx_watchers/forecasts.html to see the map. If the site is down because of exceeded bandwidth, I posted this at WWBB also by attaching the file so you can view it there if you wish...