My First Forecast on the Upcoming Storm System

[Colin]

This forecast is for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for the upcoming storm. Since it is my first call, I'll go by states rather than cities.

NC - All rain
VA - All rain, maybe some sleet at the onset
DC - Freezing Rain/Sleet (Slight Accumulations Possible) to Rain
MD - Freezing Rain/Sleet (Slight Accumulations Posisble) to Rain
DE - Freezing Rain/Sleet (Slight Accumulations Posisble) to Rain
NJ - Rain (South) Snow/Sleet (Central - 3-6" possible) Snow (North - 6"+ possible)
PA - Wintry Mix (SE) Snow (East Central - 6"+ possible) Snow (NE - 6"+ possible)
NY - Snow - (possibly a wintry mix around NYC) 6"+ possible
RI - Snow (6"+ possible)
CT - Snow (6"+ possible)
VT - Snow (6"+ possible)
NH - Snow (6"+ possible)
ME - Snow (6"+ possible)

So I think anywhere north of the M-D line will be mainly wintry precipitation. Second call will be out tonight or tomorrow...

[Heady Guy]

Hopefully in pans out for you up north Collin. I think PHL and surrounding area will be in for a short shot of snow-sleet-rain. Hoping more snow/ice hen rain.

[Colin]

I think your area will be primarily snow ... maybe a mix on Monday. I'm thinking 4-7" for you at this point.

[TNSnowbunny]

what do you think about Nashville?

[Colin]

All rain for Nashville...

[Heady Guy]

Waiting to see what RNS has to say today.

[wrkh99]

Nashville will see 1 to 3 in the city with 6+ in Kentucky


Nashville looks to be colder now on Saturday With a High around 33 to 35.

[wrkh99]

Nash



MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. AS USUAL
DURING INTERESTING WINTER EVENTS...VARIOUS THICKNESS PARAMETERS ALL
SHOW THEIR RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS RIGHT OVER MID TN (BASED ON
GFS)...WITH ETA SLIGHTLY WARMER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
TN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM SOUTH...LEANING
TOWARD COLDER SOLUTION. EVEN WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
WARM LAYERS...COOLING FROM EVAPORATION AND MELTING COULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MORE FROZEN THAN LIQUID FOR NORTH MID TN.

GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE IN NORTH MID
TN. WARMER AIR WILL RESULT IN MORE MELTING SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PLATEAU. MOISTURE NOT HUGE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR WINTER STORM...BUT POTENTIALLY THE
FIRST ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ALL OF THIS
IS RATHER SPECULATIVE HOWEVER...AND WE WILL HAVE TO JUST WAIT AND
SEE. OUR MAIN ACTION THIS MORNING WILL BE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...WITH EMPHASIS ON UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED.

LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE SWINGS THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY FAIR WX AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

[Mr Bob]

what do you think about Nashville?

Perhaps a brief mix to start...then rain followed by snow showers with little accumulation...

[JCT777]

Hopefully in pans out for you up north Collin. I think PHL and surrounding area will be in for a short shot of snow-sleet-rain. Hoping more snow/ice hen rain.

For us, I am thinking 2 to 4" of snow, following by a wintry mess and perhaps a period of rain, changing back to all snow before ending (with maybe another 1" or so). The way it looks now, this will be bad for travelers from Sunday evening through rush hour on Monday.

[jpp5862]

I think it will be primarily rain for NC, but some of the northern counties or the mountains could see some wintry precip. For now though looks like most of NC will see a chilly rain, just like last week when it was 33 - 34 and rained all day. Temps look to be a bit warmer this time though, so maybe not as much of a tease.

Good job on the forecast Colin.

[Colin]

Thanks jpp!