RNS What are your thoughts this afternoon

Fishmn · #1 Postby **Fishmn** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 12:13 pm

Looks like your first call totals may need to be revised after the last few runs of the GFS and the ETA. I know you use more than the models in you analysis and would like to hear your thoughts.

#2 Postby **RNS** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 1:42 pm

Our totals will be adjusted downward in and around (especially S and E)the I-95 corridor and just refined slightly north of there.

Erica will have the full details late this evening on the system and the complete set of updated totals as i will not be available to post...

For My Lehigh valley Snow Cult...i have good news for you...

I still think 8-12" is a good bet (across lehigh and Northampton counties...especially northern sections) the poconos could easily see in excess of 10". i think the 12z ETA might be a bit to agressive on the amount of warming...thus a happy meadium between the GFS and ETA may be a wiser path to follow.

The Lehigh valley will change to sleet and freezing rain before the precipitation concludes...and depending on how much cold air and precipitation wraps around the low will determine whether or not another period of snow occurs. Remember in this situation folks would want a stronger low...as it would be better able to draw in cold air behind it. (ex...xmas02.).

The Neg tilt to the H5 trough will allow the re-developing surface low to come up the coast...though i do think we can adjust the track of the secondary about 25-50 miles east of what the ETA indicated. (IMO last nights run of the EC had the SLP track corrector closest thereof).

Right now IMO the areas which aregoing to take the pounding (aside from the lehigh valley) will be northwestern sections of the lower susquehanna valley of central PA...that could include the harrisburg area. then this area continues northward into Northeast PA (the lehigh valley...poconos and wilkes-barre scranton areas). the Axis of heaviest snowis 50-65 MI either side of a line from hagerstown MD to Scranton PA then northeastward once again to Rutland VT.

Also watch the Left front quadrint of an h3 speed max which will be roundng the base of the trough...punching northward into the mid-atlantic. PA and NJ (based on last nights 0z GFS) placed the region in a coupled jet pattern between two h3 jet maximums one exiting out of new england and the other (previously eluted to) entering the region from the S.

this should promte the development of very strong UVM and heavier precipitation rates across central/eastern PA and SE NY. CSI induced banding (convective-type snowfall) will be possible as well...leading to areas of enhanced snowfall apart from the mean.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 1:46 pm

RNS what about the Ohio Valley?

#4 Postby **RNS** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 1:54 pm

The accumulations across the ohio valley will not be along the lines of what the northeast receives. however a 2-6 inch fall (with locally higher amounts across eastern ohio is possible) highest accumulations will occur in eastern sections of the ohio valley with the least accumulation across northwestern sections.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 1:56 pm

Specifically I am on the Indiana Ohio Boarder along Interstate 70. I was thinking generally 2-4 with some 5 inch amounts. Any thoughts?

#6 Postby **RNS** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:01 pm

I agree with you for the most part on those totals...the ohio valley will once again be left out of the heaviest snowfall...which will occur in one sawth across the southern plains and another well northwest of the I-95 corridor in the northeast.

The best chances for up to (or exceeding) 6 inches would be near the PA border in eastern ohio.

JCT777 · #7 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:15 pm

RNS - I will be looking forward to Erica's update this evening. I am still thinking that my area will receive about 3 to 5 inches of snow (western Montgomery County, PA), then a period of sleet and/or freezing rain before (possibly) changing to all rain.

I am thinking of creating a snowfall map for this storm. If I do, I will create a new post in this forum for the map.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:24 pm

RNS...ok so the news is not so good for Winchester, Va...the 6-12 looks doubtful...

Do you think at least 4-6?

2001kx · #9 Postby **2001kx** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:33 pm

will unv be in the heavy snow bands for this storm?
also what do you expect(snow totals) for that area?
thanks

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 3:04 pm

I'm thinking 3-6" for the Lehigh Valley at this point...before changing to sleet and then rain.

kpantz · #11 Postby **kpantz** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 3:07 pm

That's where I'm at, too, Colin. I might hedge upward a couple inches, but I wouldn't go over 8 (and that would includes IP as well).

Here's hoping we bust on the low side

Colin · #12 Postby **Colin** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 3:17 pm

I guarantee you, it'll be less than 6" here, then a brief changeover to sleet, before it all changes to rain and melts.

#13 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 3:29 pm

It seems like this time of the year for my area (just south of Philadelphia) will usually get rain or snow to rain when the storms come up from the GOM. We need storms to ride in and develop right behind a coldfront like last weekend's. The ocean is also still a bit warm, so whatever wind that comes off of it, it brings in warmer air with it. Am I in the ballpark with this assumption?

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 6:45 pm

Stephanie wrote:It seems like this time of the year for my area (just south of Philadelphia) will usually get rain or snow to rain when the storms come up from the GOM. We need storms to ride in and develop right behind a coldfront like last weekend's. The ocean is also still a bit warm, so whatever wind that comes off of it, it brings in warmer air with it. Am I in the ballpark with this assumption?

Steph, we are in the same area. The problem with this one is pretty much the location of the HP, as the Lp aproaches it's sliding off the New England Coast, so not enough cold air to tap. If this scenerio happened say in late Jan. it would be a good event for us. I think we have been a little "spoiled" early this winter.

R0bb0871 · #15 Postby **R0bb0871** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 6:47 pm

What are your thoughts on Northwestern NJ? Morris County, in particular.

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 6:57 pm

R0bb0871 wrote:What are your thoughts on Northwestern NJ? Morris County, in particular.

If your talking to me, my answer is get the Shovel ready! Your sitting in a good spot. I'd say about 6-8" then Sleet/freezing rain with potential for major ice build up.

R0bb0871 · #17 Postby **R0bb0871** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 7:16 pm

Thanks! I was going to get all my Christmas shopping done this weekend. Tomorrow looks like a nice day, but definitely not Sunday.

Scott_inVA · #18 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 8:30 pm

BigEyedFish wrote:RNS...ok so the news is not so good for Winchester, Va...the 6-12 looks doubtful...

Do you think at least 4-6?

If backlash makes it in here, yes.

If coastal Low bombs and the Blue Ridge/Shenandoah Valley/western foothills get dry slotted (storm #2 last week)...4 is pushing it.

Scott
WREL Radio
Lexington, VA

Heady Guy · #19 Postby **Heady Guy** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 10:22 pm

Still looking for RNS's updated forecast... I would assume much lowere in and around I 95 looking at latest models.

#20 Postby **NEwxgirl** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 11:25 pm

Heady Guy wrote:Still looking for RNS's updated forecast... I would assume much lowere in and around I 95 looking at latest models.

Our updated forecast is located on the "second call" thread.

RNS What are your thoughts this afternoon

RNS What are your thoughts this afternoon

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