It's showing fairly mild and zonal look for late next week, around xmas and beyond. I believe this is what GFS shows as well after the storm exits around the 25th.
Example, DC area jumped from upper 30's for highs right after Christmas to now 50's for highs, similar to GFS progressive look, losing eastern trough and sending warm pacific air all the way across US late in week.
Just wondering if Accu 15-day is a blend of model or just GFS?
Does accuweather 15-day exclusively use GFS?
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Stormsfury
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Re: Does accuweather 15-day exclusively use GFS?
wxw wrote:It's showing fairly mild and zonal look for late next week, around xmas and beyond. I believe this is what GFS shows as well after the storm exits around the 25th.
Example, DC area jumped from upper 30's for highs right after Christmas to now 50's for highs, similar to GFS progressive look, losing eastern trough and sending warm pacific air all the way across US late in week.
Just wondering if Accu 15-day is a blend of model or just GFS?
Accuwx uses the GFS solely on those 15 day outlooks ... Only the GFS is run out to 16 days hence the badly flip-flopping forecasts...so I've heard...
SF
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ColdFront77
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wx247
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Re: Does accuweather 15-day exclusively use GFS?
Stormsfury wrote:wxw wrote:It's showing fairly mild and zonal look for late next week, around xmas and beyond. I believe this is what GFS shows as well after the storm exits around the 25th.
Example, DC area jumped from upper 30's for highs right after Christmas to now 50's for highs, similar to GFS progressive look, losing eastern trough and sending warm pacific air all the way across US late in week.
Just wondering if Accu 15-day is a blend of model or just GFS?
Accuwx uses the GFS solely on those 15 day outlooks ... Only the GFS is run out to 16 days hence the badly flip-flopping forecasts...so I've heard...
SF
That is bad meteorology IMHO. I didn't realize that was their problem, but now it makes sense.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormsfury
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weatherlover427
The GFS is the only forecast model to run out to 16 days, 4 times a day, with many more fields than the other models. It's quite possible that those 15 day forecasts are direct output from the GFS (no human augmentation). At the present time, I believe forecasts beyond day 5 start to drastically decline in accuracy, and by day 10 I'd take it with a grain of salt.
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ColdFront77
ColdFront77 wrote:No forecaster/meteorologist and/or weather organization should use one model exclusively... like The Weather Channel uses the MM5 all the time for their Local Forecasts.
Stormsfury wrote:What? TWC lives and dies by the GFS ...
...........I heard that they use the MM5 model shortly after they started/dropped the National Weather Service forecasts.
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I understand they have incorporated the GFS ES DB (dart board) at five paces. This is in conjunction with the normal ETA GWF (gaming wheel of fortune) device which proved itself last winter.
When combining these advanced methods products such as 15 day forecasts achieve HOC (house of cards) reliability ratings. Probably one of the most attractive features of the ACCUWX 15 day forecast is the upgraded VRG (virtual reality graphics) which offer users connecting with the new Davis VRG PC Adapter w/Temp-o-Wind-n-Precip Simulator the experience of each of the predicted conditions as they scroll day-to-day through the forecast. Classic stuff but make sure you get version 6.213 as sleet can cause scarring in earlier version.
When combining these advanced methods products such as 15 day forecasts achieve HOC (house of cards) reliability ratings. Probably one of the most attractive features of the ACCUWX 15 day forecast is the upgraded VRG (virtual reality graphics) which offer users connecting with the new Davis VRG PC Adapter w/Temp-o-Wind-n-Precip Simulator the experience of each of the predicted conditions as they scroll day-to-day through the forecast. Classic stuff but make sure you get version 6.213 as sleet can cause scarring in earlier version.
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